OT: I would avoid Mexico for the time being right now....

[Jason Weiser]

http://www.physorg.com/news159778101.html

First, a gang war in Northern Mexico...now this. I do hope it's just a case of the usual problems of containing an epidemic in the 3rd World, and not the replay of 1918 that the epidemiology crowd's been fearing for years.

[Nowhere Man 1966]

I know if my maternal grandmother was still alive, she would be going crazy. I remember the last time the Swine Flu was talked about in the late 1970's, she was so afraid of it. She passed away in 1997 and I remember talking to her younger cousin and she told us the story that her mother, my great grandmother died from the flu during the 1917/18 pandemic.

Chuck M.

[JimmyRay73]

I make it a general policy to avoid Mexico anyhow, but yeah this stuff is one more version of Moctezuma's revenge I think...

[Mohoender]

Let's be sarcastic a little as I have to say that a death rate equal to that of the black death (33% casualties worldwide) would ease things a bit.:D

On the down side and the first one is a big one::(
- It would have a good chance to knock at your door.
- Food supply disruption because of worker casualties.
- Fair increase in violence from panicking and paranoied people.
- Increase in war risk just because we are more stupid than pigs (much more).

On the bright side::D
- Reduction of population need for goods.
- Reduction of food requirement worldwide.
- No more economical crisis as this would be the least of our problems.
- Reduction of global warming (less industry and reduced number of people farting).
- Reduction in the need for elder care as elders should be the first to die (further reduction of global warming).

OK, I stop. It can remind us of the avian flu and there is no reason to be scared yet. Anyway, from what I know, most of our diseases are coming from domestic animals. As we have to do with them we have to do with it.

[pmulcahy11b]

Well, lets see...I live in San Antonio...they've already had five cases and closed Steele High School in Cibalo (just south of the county line from San Antonio)...they've one case in San Antonio on the south side...I live on the west side...BOHICA!

[Mohoender]

Well, lets see...I live in San Antonio...they've already had five cases and closed Steele High School in Cibalo (just south of the county line from San Antonio)...they've one case in San Antonio on the south side...I live on the west side...BOHICA!

The right question: how many death?

[kato13]

The right question: how many death?


Right now Mexico is probably dealing with a death rate of one in thirty for those who get really sick. It is killing normally healthy people though not just the elderly or young. Think they have about 120 or so total deaths.

To be honest that is more than any bird flu outbreak killed so I understand it getting some press.

I worry slightly about a flu pandemic but this one seems to have started off as a relatively weak strain compared to the killer of 1918. In my mind that means the worst is probably over as even if it mutates it is already on the radar and will be managed better than if it came out of the blue.

[Mohoender]

From my understanding so far bird flu has a killing rate of 2 out of 3 but it has infected relatively few people (I might be entirely wrong).

Actually, my question was poorly writen down as I was questioning the number of death outside Mexico.

I don't really worry, however.

[General Pain]

I read somewhere that Obama had a meeting with a mexican who died some days later casue of the flu and No-bama is beeing tested for the flu...anyone go got the intel?

[pmulcahy11b]

I read somewhere that Obama had a meeting with a mexican who died some days later casue of the flu and No-bama is beeing tested for the flu...anyone go got the intel?

It turns out that the archaeologist in question that died after Obama met him did not die of this flu. Doctors from the CDC were allowed to assist in the autopsy and testing of his tissue.

BTW, this is not your everyday-average swine flu -- it has genes from swine flu, avian flu, and human flu strains in its RNA.

[pmulcahy11b]

From my understanding so far bird flu has a killing rate of 2 out of 3 but it has infected relatively few people (I might be entirely wrong).

Actually, my question was poorly writen down as I was questioning the number of death outside Mexico.

I don't really worry, however.

None outside of Mexico so far -- and not that many outside of Mexico City. The morning news just said we have had only 20 cases in the US, and most of them have already recovered or are no longer considered contagious.

[Mohoender]

Thanks Paul

[theDevil]

sorry to not take this seriously, the "pandemic" i mean.

What should be on the front page is that ahmadjan bajahada, or whatever the name of the iranian head of state is, is ok with a two state deal of israel/palestina.

He have uttered something like "whatever they(the fighting factors between israel/palestina) agree on is ok by me(iran)", and i would call this big news, as he is probarbly the worlds most known skinhead (sorry if i offend anybody).

but it is hidden behind this "big" pandemic which probably has killed less people then the drugwars over the same timeperiod...

i hope i do not have to eat these words in a few weeks...

[Mohoender]

That is big news indeed devil.:cool: I haven't found anything on it, however. Can you send a link to this news?

[theDevil]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/131043

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/5225705/Irans-President-would-support-two-state-solution-for-Israel.html

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/04/26/ahmadinejad-iran-would-accept-two-state-solution-if-palestinians-did/

http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek

here it is

[Mohoender]

Thanks. Nothing in french or on it in any french news. We focus on the flu and on Carla Bruni/Letizia Ortiz.

Of course, if France was Russia, no journalist would ever be executed, guess why.:D

[pmulcahy11b]

I just got back from my doctor's office (don't worry, it's just a sinus infection), and she told me that she's already had one confirmed case of swine flu in her office.

[Jason Weiser]

I just got back from my doctor's office (don't worry, it's just a sinus infection), and she told me that she's already had one confirmed case of swine flu in her office.

Loverly...I heard the WHO's not so much worried about the lethality of this bug..but how fast it gets around...In any case, they have a six point alert level scale, and they're considering going to 4-5 on their alert status. What that means, got me? But, if people start dying outside Mexico? All bets are off.

[theDevil]

it is said that there has been 40 confirmed in usa, but the official number is 20, all in the new york area.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/27/swine.flu.international/index.html

ofcourse confirmed and reported are two different things...

i would not worry, just another n5h1 paranoia scare tactic, wonder what all our goverments are doing with their left hand as they feed us, the public, this paranoia crap with their right hand, have I mentioned that i am a conspiracy nut... ...oh yeah i have...

still no big leap in the death rate though, its now at 103, BUT the official number of confirmed death by n1h1 has still not been released, and still they (the deaths) are all located in mexico...

But as we are glued to the screen watching this news unravel, who knows what kind of propositions our governments are "secretly"(as under covers of other, more "important", news) agreeing on, just like the "doctrine for joint nuclear operation" which startet to form early in 2002 and are now in effect, without alot of hubbub from the public as we where all glued to the tube in horror watching the 911 pictures over and over, then again watching the brave men and women bringing democracy to iraq... ...cant help thinking about what is happening now...

...did i mention i am a concpiracy nut :P

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doctrine_for_Joint_Nuclear_Operations

still i see no cause for alarm, more concerned for the planet Niburu that is creepingly, slowly, closing in on us... :cool:

[pmulcahy11b]

Loverly...I heard the WHO's not so much worried about the lethality of this bug..but how fast it gets around...In any case, they have a six point alert level scale, and they're considering going to 4-5 on their alert status. What that means, got me? But, if people start dying outside Mexico? All bets are off.

Just before I left this morning, the news said that this swine flu has gotten as far around the world as New Zealand (1 confirmed case). That's the downside of being able to be anywhere in the world by air travel in 12 hours.

[Mohoender]

Just before I left this morning, the news said that this swine flu has gotten as far around the world as New Zealand (1 confirmed case). That's the downside of being able to be anywhere in the world by air travel in 12 hours.

I agree that's why I would say it hasn't spread anywhere outside of Mexico (almost Mexico City alone). However, we have brought it as far as New Zealand.

An interesting comment on the french news yesterday was that at least one of our journalist is taking that opportunity to make the Russians appear as the bad guys again. How?

Simple:
Moscow put a ban on any agricultural product from Mexico and does systematic health check on people coming from that area. For our journalist that is, of course, a great proof of how liberties are restraint in Russia (he didn't say Soviet Union but that was close). Then, his next question implied that our government should be taking similar measures (perfectly democratic this time). Hopefully, the scientist who was participating had a fair answer: Russia has always been drastic on health issue and that is one of their bright side. Moreover, they don't import anything from Mexico and, therefore, that decision is no big deal.

Of course, I'm slightly exagerating but not that much.:D

[TiggerCCW UK]

There have been a couple of suspected cases in the republic as well. Test results due back soon.

[Targan]

Five people have been quarantined with suspected cases in Sydney. Federal authorities in Australia have ordered that all aircraft arriving in Australia from North or South America declare any suspected cases on board before they land.

[theDevil]

usa banned air france flying over american soil, reason: a colombian born french journalist where onboard, and as he had been critical of colombia and usa in the newspaper LeMonde, the usa couldn`t well have him flying over their soil (he is on usa no fly list)... ...so the plane had to be diverted...

so liberties are beeing restrained wherever you go in the world, it aint just the russians ya know... ;)

but hey french journalst, who wants them anyway :P

latest numbers: 149 believed death by swine flue in mexico, 16000 infected in mexico (if these figures still stands. at the end of the day, there will be a 0.93% chance of dying if you are infected, and that is in a third world environment, of course this is only numbers that ive picked from the net right now, and only from mexico, calculating in the rest of the world this numbers (percentage chance of death goes further down...).
rest of the world 0 believed death, a couple of hundred testing for infection...

correct me if i am wrong...
...but this pandemic doesnt make me atleast worried.

[Legbreaker]

Five people have been quarantined with suspected cases in Sydney. Federal authorities in Australia have ordered that all aircraft arriving in Australia from North or South America declare any suspected cases on board before they land.
...and earlier today I saw some of the passengers on TV telling a reporter what the authorities "health screening" consisted of.

It was nothing more than somebody standing at the exit door asking "how do you feel?"

Makes you feel all safe and secure doesn't it?

[General Pain]

...and earlier today I saw some of the passengers on TV telling a reporter what the authorities "health screening" consisted of.

It was nothing more than somebody standing at the exit door asking "how do you feel?"

Makes you feel all safe and secure doesn't it?

priceless....

[jester]

The flu spreads,

Embargoes and quarantines are put in place. Travel to Mexico and the US is banned, then from the Western Hemishpere.

Trade goods are banned from those countries.

The casualty rate in Mexico due to corruption skyrockets and the have nots who get it have a 90% fatality rate.

Human smuggling north to the US becomes a lucratvie proposition as the embagro sends their faltering economy further down and the flu or the fear of the flu has people panicing and trying to flee.

Sadly, as they flee, they bring the flu with them casuing it to spread throughout the region, prmarily the US but also Canada.

The areas on the smuggling route leave swaths of sickness all the way into Canada.

In a backlash the Guatamala sends troops to the border and anyone attempting to flee Mexico to the south is shot.

The US the border guards are decimated with the flu as are most border towns.

The civilian population has a backlash on ALL hispanics, and a few lynchings and shootings occur. Some riots break out. In the end troops are on the border, as well as patrolling the towns along the border. National Guard is used to control the curfews and quarantines that have been enplaced. Troos go door to door in the cities that are heavilly hit after reports of entire families being found dead and going unoticed for weeks.

Forced evacuations continue.

As the flu speads it mutates so the medicines that they do develope are only capable of handling the last round that has already passed. By the time the flu returns it mutates once more.

Most borders close down and are militarized.

The economy in general suffers as trade is paralized and the work force is crippled throug illness or just fear. Even basic services are reduced and before long even basic foods are gone, the government is strepping in issuing food.

Refugees are caught trying to flee regions and are sent back by military keeping them in their cities. Countries governments are crumbing over the pressure, and refugees are being roughly treated as are ethnic groups in forgien countries often they are being blamed for the pandemic. Some countries are even offiicaly blaming them, others it is just the population.

Before long military forces on the border are shooting refugees on sight, the odd firefight between border security forces occurs. After a while these engagements become protracted and cross border incursions occur. Retaliations happen claimed to protect that countries nationals who are being harmed in refugee centers, but it is retaliation pure and simple. Before long most countries are at a state of almost war with their neigbors.

How is that for a plot to start the T2K campaign?



As for the flu its self, I work in a hospital and am one of the first people they contact in the ER. So with this flu, all I have to say is,

IT SUCKS TO BE ME :D

[kcdusk]

Five people have been quarantined with suspected cases in Sydney. Federal authorities in Australia have ordered that all aircraft arriving in Australia from North or South America declare any suspected cases on board before they land.

Update from the late news in Australia ... 70 suspected cases.

My guess is many will be something else. But it shows how quickly something like this can/could spread. Scary stuff.

[headquarters]

you got to admit they look " ot " ,non?

Thanks. Nothing in french or on it in any french news. We focus on the flu and on Carla Bruni/Letizia Ortiz.

Of course, if France was Russia, no journalist would ever be executed, guess why.:D

[headquarters]

There is of course the BBCs "SURVIVORS" to check out if you want a dramatized account . ( Outside that of the press that is - I am not sure what way to lean on this one - is the attention the media gets from publishing omnious reports the key factor in the vague information about the possibl e lethality or are there few facts known as of now? Or is it that maybe it isnt that dangerous -then why arnt they saying that ? )

[theDevil]

...is the attention the media gets from publishing omnious reports the key factor in the vague information about the possibl e lethality or are there few facts known as of now? Or is it that maybe it isnt that dangerous -then why arnt they saying that ?

they are saying that it is not that bad, according to different people in the medical profesion: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8022102.stm

i think also the news organisations knows this, but have a rather "if people turns the tube on to watch more scary pandemic telly, why not go with the flow" mentality going.

also, it is not disinformation, the way the media is spinning this, as there will be no definitely numbers, or cause for real alarm before a couple of weeks have past, in the meanwhile they can go at it from any angle they want to.

The sad fact is that if a news broadcaster ad said something like "it is going to be okay, the medical society says" then the audience would switch over to kbcs-tv`s latest police chase from the chopper point of view.

[pmulcahy11b]

Honestly, at this stage of the game, the biggest problem is panic. Already here in San Antonio, the emergency rooms are getting clogged with everyone who has a sniffle.

[Mohoender]

Honestly, at this stage of the game, the biggest problem is panic. Already here in San Antonio, the emergency rooms are getting clogged with everyone who has a sniffle.

It slowly starts around here as well. Again the media have a fair hand into this. At last I became curious and went to the OMS website, it was interesting.

There is no pandemic so far. However, they estimates that the risk is increasing (that's why they went from stage 3 to stage 4). Funny, it works exactly as Defcon in the movie "Wargame".;)

In France, since yesterday the information has become contradictory at best: swine flu, other flu, mexican flu, mistery flu... The OMS clearly identify it as H1N1. Hopefully, we had a fair report this morning (at 10.00 am when no one is watching).

It killed no one outside of Mexico so far but it's spreading fairly fast. It was unusual as it hit young healthy people. However, that is not exceptional at all. That happened in US in 1976, I think, at Fort Dix where it killed a soldier. I'm too young too remember but I found amusing how history as a tendency to repeat itself.

It seems that only oseltamivir is having an action on it. Of course our media are not telling this.

Just go and have a look for yourself: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

I'm not especially anti-media but I keep repeating that they are only a starting point. What is great today is that we have a direct access to many informations. As a result we can cross our infos.

[headquarters]

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html[/url]

I'm not especially anti-media but I keep repeating that they are only a starting point. What is great today is that we have a direct access to many informations. As a result we can cross our infos.


yeah , but sometimes you drown in the rubbish

[Jason Weiser]

Well, this gets worse:
We MAY, I REPEAT MAY have our first deaths in the US

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2009/04/two-los-angeles-county-deaths-possibly-related-to-swine-flu-coroner-says.html

[theDevil]

atleast one of the 2 deaths where not swine flue, they are still waiting for the second deceised but the coroner says it is unlikely to be swine flue...

this accoring to: http://cbs2.com/local/riverside.county.swine.2.996124.html

but there is 2 victims recently arrived from mexico that has been contributed to swineflue: http://cbs5.com/local/swine.flu.bay.2.996454.html meaning that the United states of America as its first confirmed cases of swineflue deaths.

[jester]

Think of it this way,

All the people flocking to the emergency rooms for every little sniffle. BUT, what happens when one person in the often crammed ER has it, and they now expose everyone else in the waiting room to the disease.

You do know that the easiest place to catch something is to spend time in an ER or hospital. Isn't it ironic, a person goes in healthy and contracts something serious like the swine/mexicain flu.

[theDevil]

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html

and its title is "Regular flu has kille thousands since january"

[kato13]

Annually Deer/Car crashes have killed a similar number of people in the US as have died in Mexico from this flu. If at some point this flu proves to be more dangerous to Americans than deer, I will develop some concern.

[Mohoender]

I keep repeating myself but go and check the WHO/OMS website. You'll find a number of thing about what is hapening today.

- First, there are some cases of swine flu but these are very limited and the level of casualties remain low.

To this day, here are the figures: The United States Government has reported 64 laboratory confirmed human cases, with no deaths. Mexico has reported 26 confirmed human cases of infection including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Canada (6), New Zealand (3), the United Kingdom (2), Israel (2) and Spain (2).

- The other figures, including the higher level of contamination (Influenza-like Illness) and the higher level of death (through pneumonia), is coming from an unidentified virus. That can make you worry but I agree with kato's last statement. From my understanding, they are still investigating that other contamination but nothing has come up on that so far.

Nothing to worry about but I'm glad they are taking this seriously. Jester is right the panic is not helping. Yesterday, I made a mistake, however. Around here, nobody is panicking which is not that surprising. After all, a few years ago, people were made to worry about the avian flu, this time they just seem not to care that much (might become a problem, then).
In france the worriness about avian flu was quite big and largely fueled by the government. For exemple, towns and villages were advised to build stocks of bodybags as the government was expecting a very high death rate. Nothing came...

[jester]

Mo you are right about the media sensationalizing things, so now when things happen people take it with a grain of salt, having experienced the sensationalism of the world is ending the world is ending before and in the end, nothing happened. And now, something could happen the media is pumping it upworse than normal as usual and people are ignoring it, because of the past over dramatiziing the event, much like the old story of "The Boy Who Called Wolf" or "The Little Red Hen shouting, The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!"

[JimmyRay73]

One of my local ER's has handled a confirmed case of swine flu, and sent the victim home to recover saying "he'll be fine." A hotline set up specifically to answer questions about swine flu was swamped for a few days. The local media commented at length about how "northeast Ohio was on the map due to the swine flu pandemic" but they rarely referenced what the actual symptoms might be.

Because of this I draw two conclusions:

1) Avoid hospitals unless really necessary. They're full of sick people. (Thank you W.C. Fields).
2) The media cares more about the fact that people are paying attention to them than it does about actually informing their audience what to look for as far as signs of a potentially deadly disease.

[pmulcahy11b]

I think we're missing the point -- the Mexican government, police, military, and legal system are all massively corrupt. Narcoterrorists are largely in charge of the country. People are kidnapped all the time, for too many reasons to count.

I would avoid Mexico right now, swine flu or not!

[Mohoender]

Paul that's an intersting point and I share it. However, most people would not cancel their nice planned vacations for such tiny little problems.

Anyway, until it stirkes next to them, most people think that problems happens only to others.

One of the suspected case in France was a nine years old girl (hopefully not infected) who had come back from Mexico. When she started to have fever (two days after her return) what did her parents? The obvious, of course, they sent her to school.

I'm not of the panicking type, but in that case, I would have called the 15 (french phone number equal to your 911).
- To be sure.
- To avoid emergency rooms.
- To avoid taking the chance of infecting my neighbour's kids.