Turboswede
05-29-2009, 07:11 PM
This is my alternate timeline for the period 1990-1997 that takes into account the collapse of the Soviet Union, the break-up of Yugoslavia, the split of Czechoslovakia, etc.
This version is pretty true to life up until 1995. There are 3 major changes I made that lead up to the Twilight War. Which may be of some interest to you political science buffs out there.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky is elected president of the RSFRS.
In my version the ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky and his Liberal Democratic Party (LOL) beats Yeltsin in the 1991 Russian elections and gains massive public support after putting down the Coup attempt in 1991. From there I assume Zhirinovsky takes a reactionary approach to Russian “liberalization†and refuses to let the Central Asian Republics leave the family. That would make sense if he wanted to keep all those nuclear facilities in Russian hands.
Ethnic violence erupts in Central Asia instead of the Caucasus.
To pull the PRC into conflict with Russia something needs to happen. I never bought that “after escalating border incidents, war breaks out between China and the Soviet Unionâ€
Without a Sino/Russian conflict we can’t get to the Twilight war and it would take more than a “border incident†to cause those to heavy hitters to go to war. My analogy would be to look at the use of the Pakistani border by elements of the Taliban. Given a nationalist Russian President and a strong resistance movement (characterized as terrorists), I could see Russia using its strategic airpower (like we have in Afghanistan) to root out suspected hostile elements.
Of course the Russians would probably be a little less concerned about collateral damage and I assume that Zhirinovsky gives his pilots more leeway to strike hostile positions near (and possibly inside) the Chinese border. I have heard the argument so many times that the US government tied our pilots hands over Vietnam & Korea, well this is the kind of thing that can happen if neutral airspace is routinely violated.
The Bundeswehr absorbs the NVA whole heartedly
In real life, Germany got rid of the entire NVA (East German Army) General staff from Colonel up. My scenario assumes that Germany tried to integrate the NVA’s high command into the Bundeswehr. Of course the influence of the NVA’s General Staff would spark traditional Prussian militarism in the Bundeswehr (that’s why they were let go in reality). It could (and in my time line does) create the desire for a German state including traditional Prussia. Unfortunately most of Prussia is currently inside Poland and that little western bit of Russia.
This “manifest destiny†in the hearts of the General Staff leads to the creation of the “Iron September†terrorist group. Of course the group consists of extremely nationalistic members of the former NVA that are planted within Poland.
565
566
567
568
569
570
Anyway, hope you enjoy and would love to hear what you think.
This version is pretty true to life up until 1995. There are 3 major changes I made that lead up to the Twilight War. Which may be of some interest to you political science buffs out there.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky is elected president of the RSFRS.
In my version the ultra-nationalist Zhirinovsky and his Liberal Democratic Party (LOL) beats Yeltsin in the 1991 Russian elections and gains massive public support after putting down the Coup attempt in 1991. From there I assume Zhirinovsky takes a reactionary approach to Russian “liberalization†and refuses to let the Central Asian Republics leave the family. That would make sense if he wanted to keep all those nuclear facilities in Russian hands.
Ethnic violence erupts in Central Asia instead of the Caucasus.
To pull the PRC into conflict with Russia something needs to happen. I never bought that “after escalating border incidents, war breaks out between China and the Soviet Unionâ€
Without a Sino/Russian conflict we can’t get to the Twilight war and it would take more than a “border incident†to cause those to heavy hitters to go to war. My analogy would be to look at the use of the Pakistani border by elements of the Taliban. Given a nationalist Russian President and a strong resistance movement (characterized as terrorists), I could see Russia using its strategic airpower (like we have in Afghanistan) to root out suspected hostile elements.
Of course the Russians would probably be a little less concerned about collateral damage and I assume that Zhirinovsky gives his pilots more leeway to strike hostile positions near (and possibly inside) the Chinese border. I have heard the argument so many times that the US government tied our pilots hands over Vietnam & Korea, well this is the kind of thing that can happen if neutral airspace is routinely violated.
The Bundeswehr absorbs the NVA whole heartedly
In real life, Germany got rid of the entire NVA (East German Army) General staff from Colonel up. My scenario assumes that Germany tried to integrate the NVA’s high command into the Bundeswehr. Of course the influence of the NVA’s General Staff would spark traditional Prussian militarism in the Bundeswehr (that’s why they were let go in reality). It could (and in my time line does) create the desire for a German state including traditional Prussia. Unfortunately most of Prussia is currently inside Poland and that little western bit of Russia.
This “manifest destiny†in the hearts of the General Staff leads to the creation of the “Iron September†terrorist group. Of course the group consists of extremely nationalistic members of the former NVA that are planted within Poland.
565
566
567
568
569
570
Anyway, hope you enjoy and would love to hear what you think.