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-   -   Who'd Have Thought (back in 1984)? (https://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=7968)

Raellus 09-17-2024 05:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castlebravo92 (Post 97415)
In Russia they have fake elections, in Ukraine they just cancel the elections. Zelensky himself made the assertion recently that upwards of 70% of the military aid sent Ukraine’s way had literally been stolen. Zelensky’s domestic critics don’t seem to wind up dead from polonium in their coffee or falling out of their windows like Putin’s critics, but Ukraine the state is qualitatively not that much different than Russia. It's a corrupt mafia state run by a strongman dictator. The main difference is that Russia is the aggressor in the war and they seem to be committing far fewer war crimes than Russia. And of course the West is supporting them and together it makes them the (relatively) good guys. On the whole I have been supportive of US policy with regard to Ukraine, but I do think we were too slow to give them deep strike capability and a little too lax on controls on the money wr are sending their way. Zelensky’s wife doesn’t need any more Bugatis on uS taxpayers’ dime.

Re the canceled election, again, Ukraine is at war and 1/4 of the country is under Russian occupation. It would be very difficult to organize a national election that would be accepted- in Ukraine and/or the international community- as legitimate under these circumstances. I think it's unreasonable to expect Ukrainians to stand in line at polling places as missiles and drones rain down upon their cities and towns. I am not, however, asserting that they should not be given that opportunity, but it is somewhat understandable, if not justifiable, that under the current extenuating circumstances, a general election has been postponed.

Wartime conditions don't excuse an indefinite postponement of free and fair elections, but to liken the current political situation in Ukraine to that which has existed in Russia for the last three decades ignores some pretty significant differences.

Re corruption. Yes, Ukraine has significant corruption problems, but they were/are trying to correct them. Ukraine's eventual membership in the EU depends on reducing corruption (the EU has explicit requirements for "acceptable" and unacceptable levels of corruption in its member states). The claim that you attribute to Zelensky shows that the Ukrainian government is trying to be transparent and clean up its act. Putin, on the other hand, is the ultimate kleptocrat. The entire economic and political systems in Russia are set up to enrich him personally and keep him in power indefinitely (by also enriching his select allies). Of course, Putin would stridently deny all of this... and then censor, imprison, and/or kill anyone bold enough to call him out in public.

I agree with you that the US should do a better job assuring that its aid- monetary and materiel- ends up in the right hands. Sadly, this isn't something that we've quite figured out how to do, even though the same issues existed during our wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

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Raellus 09-21-2024 11:31 AM

There were pagers back in 1984, right? There were definitely walkie-talkies. Do you think the T2k writers would have thought that rigging a large number of walkies to explode on command would be a realistic capability in 2024?

In the comments section of a web article on Tuesday's unprecedented pager attack, some wit dubbed the Israeli black op, "Operation Grim Beeper". Wish I'd thought of that.

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Nowhere Man 1966 09-21-2024 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LoneCollector1987 (Post 97409)
I copied only a part off your answer. And I do disagree with you regarding the first part.

1) If it is true what you say (Good guys are bound by rules) then why do we have in wikipedia entries like Allied warcrimes?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allied...g_World_War_II

Shouldnt allied soldiers after receiving such orders (Chuck Yeager wrote in his book that he received such orders) told their CO to forget it and not execute those orders? Or they would go their superior officers to file charges against their fellow soldiers if they commit warcrimes?

There is a latin law principle that states that one injustice doesnt legalize another injustice.
And why were they excempt from prosecution? To give you one example: A german who was in the Bad Nenndorf interrogation centre had to file charges in London because german judges are forbidden from prosecuting allied soldiers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ist-spies.html

2) If you want to get Putin to come to a peace agreement then I think the only way is 100% truth. Nothing more, nothing less.

I looked around the internet and found the following:
Ukraine had an elected government but that was ousted by a revolution, e.g. therefore the new government was not elected and therefore illegal.

There was a treaty signed but according to a statement by Ms Merkel, then chancellor of Germany, it was meant as a way to buy time for re-armarment of Ukraine.
Sources: (and they are not Putin-friendly pages)
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Putin-gi...e23774842.html
Quote: "das Abkommen von 2014 sei unterzeichnet worden, um der Ukraine "Zeit zu geben", und Kiew habe die Zeit genutzt, "um stärker zu werden"
The treaty of 2014 was signed to give Ukraine time and Kiev used this time to get stronger.
https://www.fr.de/politik/von-putins...-92037711.html
Quote: "2015 hätte Putin die Ukraine leicht erobern können, die Nato-Länder aber hätten kaum so viel tun können, um der Ukraine zu helfen, wie sie es jetzt täten. „Angela Merkel hat recht in diesem Punkt“, erklärte später Hollande dem „Kyiv Independent“: „Die Minsker Vereinbarungen stoppten die russische Offensive für eine Weile."
Putin could have easily taken the Ukraine in 2015 and the NATO countries couldnt have much done to help Ukraine as they could do now. Angela Merkel was right said Hollande (former french prime minister) to the newspaper Kiev Independant. The Minsk agreement stopped the russian offensive for a while.

In the areas now occupied by Russia the current government of Ukraine forbade the use of russian language and a short time ago they declared the orthodox church to be illegal.
Can you imagine that the US government would forbid the Amish to use their language Pennsylvania Dutch, Swiss German and not be attacked? Or if they forbade their religion?

If I bring up this points I am always directly accused of being a Putin sympathizer. If wanting to know the entire truth, nothing but the truth and only the truth - then so be it. But I want to state these points and ask: "Are they the truth - yes or no?".

And to the last point - willpower- I agree with you.

I do admit there are lines even the good guys do cross from time to time, the D&D alignment charts explain quite a bit as well. I think we live in a world made up of a "grey and black morality" where we are all flawed, hats of various shades of grey where most of us here would be light shades of grey. You have your evil "black hats" and for the White Hats, very few and far between. Many times no matter what actions are taken, there are consequences.

Willpower to carry on a fight, without that, the rest do not matter much. It's like President Truman had the will to drop too atomic bombs on Japan. I take no joy in that but it had to be done. I'm sure President FDR and later Truman agonized over this as well.

I'm not a Putinista either but we do need to tread lightly here and find that balance to stand up to him but not to push him in a corner either. As you pointed out the Ukraine is a grey hat too. I'd say Russia is still in the wrong for the invasion but again we can't do much about it because it is far from the US and also Russia is a nuclear power. If it was Haiti or Iran invading the Ukraine, we can be more liberal with force but to go against the #2 (or #1) nuclear power a the case maybe, we need to tread a lot more lightly.

kato13 09-22-2024 07:23 AM

Hopefully stories like this
Vladimir Putin suffers huge military blow as 'unreliable' weapon 'explodes' in test
make it back to Putin, to undermine his faith in his own systems.

I like most people on this board respect what even a limited nuclear exchange would mean. If Putin has lost some faith in his armed forces in the past 2 years and things like this must make it worse. Maybe that brings us back from the brink a bit.

Unrelated, it seems odd to me that new nuclear forces would be liquid fueled. Solid fueled seem to have every advantage except the technical difficulties in manufacture and immediate short term cost.

Nowhere Man 1966 09-22-2024 11:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kato13 (Post 97421)
Hopefully stories like this
Vladimir Putin suffers huge military blow as 'unreliable' weapon 'explodes' in test
make it back to Putin, to undermine his faith in his own systems.

I like most people on this board respect what even a limited nuclear exchange would mean. If Putin has lost some faith in his armed forces in the past 2 years and things like this must make it worse. Maybe that brings us back from the brink a bit.

Unrelated, it seems odd to me that new nuclear forces would be liquid fueled. Solid fueled seem to have every advantage except the technical difficulties in manufacture and immediate short term cost.

Yeah, I mean in things like these, I don't want to see an atomic war myself, if it happens, it happens, but we must understand our limitations to help out other nations if attacked but if it was a huge nuclear power like Russia and to a lesser extent, Red China, we need to tread lightly. I'm 58 years old, I have too many problems to deal with, an atomic war is not another I want to add to the pile. :) :p

I remember during the Cold War, many people thought the Soviet Army was unbeatable or at least seemed like supermen That is a stretch but it seems they were tougher then. They seem weaker now, I can't really call the Russian Army/Military a paper tiger, perhaps a "cardboard tiger" as compared to the 1950's to 1980's. Even so, nukes are a huge equalizer in the game and that is the trump card. NATO is in the same boat too, a shadow of it's former self.

Silent Hunter UK 10-10-2024 03:23 PM

I don't think they'd have anticipated social media, streaming or the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

Or that Tom Cruise would remain a huge movie star 40 years later.

Raellus 10-11-2024 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silent Hunter UK (Post 97457)
I don't think they'd have anticipated social media, streaming.

Good calls!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Silent Hunter UK (Post 97457)
...or the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Or that Tom Cruise would remain a huge movie star 40 years later.

:D

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