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Yes, I just can't see the Chinese nukes being a credible threat to the Soviets given the history of the war to date and clear advantage the Soviets had with satellite surveillance.
You can bet any silos would have been identified early and targeted with the first wave. Satellites and other resources would certainly be focused on the mobile launchers with strikes occurring the moment they were exposed. Strategically, Chinese nukes are only likely to be of much use in a first strike, surprise situation. In T2K they had no chance to get more than a handful off the ground, and as written in the timeline, the Soviet ABM system was very effective against them. |
In the mid-1990's the Chinese nuclear arsenal was very weak compared with the US and USSR in both real life and T2K timelines, and was in fact less capable than British and French nuclear forces. Even today it is still weak.
At this time China had two ICBM: DF-4 and DF-5. DF-4 ICBM (Range: 5,500-7,000 km with 1x 3.3 Mt warhead) DF-5 ICBM (Range: 12,000-15,000 km with 1x 4.5 Mt warhead) The DF-4 was barely even an ICBM and could scarcely reach Moscow from the Chinese east coast. The DF-5 was a minimal Chinese strategic nuclear deterrent against both the US and USSR. Numbers for both missiles varies (from a dozen up to 40) but I doubt China had more than 25 of both missiles in total at this time. China's force of IRBM's was more formidable, they had at least 50 DF-3 and maybe a dozen DF-21 DF-3 IRBM (Range: 3,100 km with 1x 3,3 Mt) DF-21A IRBM (Range: 2,150 km with 1x 300 kt) Depending on where they were launched both missiles could hit anywhere in the Soviet Far East, and also most of Siberia and Soviet Central Asia. China also had over 100 tactical ranged DF-15 SRBM with a range of 600 km that were nuclear capable. The Chinese Navy had only one operations SSBN at this time, the single Xia Class with 12 J-1 SLBM with a range in the IRBM class. It was old and noisy and probably sunk early in the war. China's nuclear bomber force consisted of about 120 Xian-H-6, a Chinese built version of the Tupolev Tu-16. China's stock of air dropped nuclear bombs was about 20. The Xian H-6 would have been shot to pieces by the Soviet air defenses. |
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I'd be surprised if the Chinese attacks lasted the week mentioned above, and didn't die out after the first 24 hours or so. Ok, there may have been one or two after that, but those missiles are likely to have been delayed more due to technical reasons than a desire to wait for the right moment. Those last few were almost certainly sent off out of pure desperation and/or refusal by generals and politicians to accept they weren't just beaten, but obliterated. |
I would say that the successful attacks were on the Soviet troops - i.e.
"The Chinese response is immediate, but Soviet forward troop units are dispersed and well prepared." Meaning the bombs got to target and caused damage - but we arent talking concentrated forces that got hit - dispersed and well prepared - meaning ok maybe a couple of nukes hit a Soviet division but instead of taking it out as intended its more like maybe one or two battalions took it on the chin but the rest were ok - and they had electronics shut down to avoid EMP damage and men dug in deep so basically unless you were at ground zero you made it whereas the Chinese units were hit either in road formation or in combat formation on the move - i.e. not dug in, electronics on and able to be fried by EMP, etc.. "Chinese mechanized columns are vaporized, caught in the open on the roads in imagined pursuit." about the only Soviet unit that really got hit was the 148th Motorized Rifle Division - nuked and thought to be destroyed by the Soviets in the fall of 1997 but may be survivors - i.e. either they didnt get the word in time or something happened that instead of pulled way back, dispersed and dug in they were fighting for their lives against the Chinese and the Soviet nukes took them out too - or their communications failed and it was a case of friendly fire - i.e. they were in the wrong place at the wrong time and got nuked instead of the Chinese unit the strike craft was supposed to hit |
I think that's a pretty good assessment overall. China as a whole got decimated while the Pact forces and homelands received a comparative rap on the knuckles.
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Advance the timeline at least five years though when the region has made some headway towards recovery and I think it becomes an interesting possibility. |
Actually if any of the Chinese forces would be intact it might be the ones along the Vietnamese border - they are ones that the Soviets would be highly unlikely to attack with nukes - mainly because they would be no threat to them - thus a warlord trying to attack Vietnam (as Leg said maybe in 2002-2003) that is the commander of those forces could be very plausible
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I always laughed at "Peoples Liberation Army Navy". Just the name, not the organization itself.
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Who's to say Vietnam was actively hostile to China?
I doubt they'd be anything approaching allies, but with the west obviously supporting China with weapons, ammo, etc they're not about to pick a fight are they? |
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Let alone that China gets it oil from two places at this time USSR and via the Strait of Malacca. For the Soviets to not try to take advantage of that situation and at least try to disrupt the flow is short sighted at the least especially given the piracy that happens in the area on a normal basis. How long it would stay disrupted is another question but it seems like a big strategic oversight to me. |
The status of Vietnam depends on if your playing V.1 or V.2.
In V.1 Vietnam was allied to the Soviet Union and at war with China. From Soviet Vehicle Guide. 1st Indochinese Front 128th Air Assault Brigade 28th Soviet Army 50th Guards Motorised Rifle Division 101st Guards Motorised Rifle Division 104th Motorised Rifle Division The 128th Air Assault Brigade (Hanoi, Vietnam): A pre-war a Category I units attached to the Central Asian MD, the 128th was sent to Vietnam as part of a force to protect the naval facilities in 1997. The 128th has seen little action, suffering mainly from a lack of fuel and desertion. 50th Guards Motorised Rifle Division (Haiphong, Vietnam). A Category III MR Divisions from the Byelorussian MD activated in late 1995. Sent to Vietnam in mid-1996 to protect naval assets at Haiphong, and has been engaged against the Chinese and other armed bands since. 101st Guards Motorised Rifle Division (Hanoi, Vietnam). A Category I MR Divisions from the Byelorussian MD. Sent to Vietnam at the start of the war with China in order to help the Vietnamese Army protect its northern borders. This units fought a series of sharp engagements with the Chinese before the fall of China. 104th Motorised Rifle Division (Vietnam): A mobilisation only division raised in the Kiev MD in late 1996. It was sent to Vietnam as a reinforcement as the units there became involved with fighting with the Chinese. In V.2 Vietnam was not allied with the Soviet Union. There is no mention of Soviet forces in Vietnam in V.2 Soviet Combat Vehicle Handbook. The 1st Indochinese Front has become the 1st Japanese Front. The 128th Air Assault Brigade, 50th Guards Motorised Rifle Division, 101st Guards Motorised Rifle Division and 104th Motorised Rifle Division are now stationed in the Kurile Islands and Sakhalin Island. Also from V.2 American Combat Vehicle Handbook. The US 2nd Infantry Division was stationed at Cam Ranh Bay, Republic of Vietnam from 1991 until 1996, when it was then transferred to Korea under command of the reconstituted 8th U.S. Army. So in V.2 communist Vietnam is now switched back to the South Vietnamese Republic of Vietnam and US forces are based in Vietnam up to at least the start of the Sino-Soviet War !!!!? |
Well there you go then. Some pretty conclusive information there.
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The sourcebook I would be looking at would be more tuned to the V1 timeline versus the V2 - and the US being in Vietnam and the reunification of Korea in the V2 timeline really wasnt handled that well in V2 - it was like the whole China Russia war and the Korean front was treated more as just padding for the real action in Europe and North America and the Middle East
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A few historical notes on the PLA;
1 - The PLA were poised to assault Taiwan in 1950. With the US-led UN intervention in Korea and the massing of troops on the China-Korea border those troops were converted from invasion formations to coastal defence formations. 2 - The troops used in Korea were in a large part former Nationalist troops 'cleansing their honour' (ie: dying to avoid reprisals to their families and home regions). This is important because the methods used by the PLA in Korea were an aberration; they actively wanted a high death rate in their own troops. Many troops used in the Chosin action were not issued shoes. Attempting to use these 'human wave' attacks as a standard Chinese tactic is wrong and I kinda wish people would stop it when I see it in faction :) |
actually using a human wave attack as a distraction in desperation could possibly still be a tactic of theirs - but only if it was to have the Soviets concentrate everything they had on the wave and not realize they were about to get taken in the flank by tanks
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I suppose another way to supply Tanks to China would be to buy the various T-54/55s the Israelis have and ship them to China as well
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Something people seem to be missing is China is NOT an English speaking country, let alone reading.
Every last label on every piece of equipment would have to be changed before the Chinese could put it to use. (Some items such as small arms ammo shouldn't pose a problem though - bit hard to get confused with that...) This small but vital detail may well prevent some items from being sent, and will certainly delay others. Add in training time and costs, as well as the manpower required just for qualified instructors who can speak the language, and it's an almost certainty the more technical items would be only in limited supply and use. Yes, a LOT of material was sent to the USSR in WWII, but you really can't compare a Sherman or Matilda with even an M60A4 or Chieftain - the newer stuff (even though not latest generation) is a whole magnitude of complexity greater. |
sending Soviet stuff that is in other countries is actually a pretty good idea - i.e. a T-54/55 is basically the same tank as the Chinese have - pretty easy to print up and stick labels over the Russian characters - same with the T-62 which they captured several examples of back during the late 60's
Also China has a lot of people who speak English as well as Chinese and can read and speak both languages - they happen to live in Hong Kong - so that is a great source for the Chinese to get people to both translate manuals and for providing translation for training |
I've been trying to think of reasons why Israel would not sell T-55s, etc to China and honestly I can't really think of too many besides them perhaps wanting to keep them for their own forces. That said, I understand they've got quite a few anyway and have been gradually replacing them with better machines, refurbishing and flogging the old stuff off to Africa or whoever stumps up the cash.
Pretty sure there's no mention anywhere in the books of them supplying anyone throughout the war(s), but also hasn't been ruled out. |
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I visited the PRC a couple of times from Hong Kong about fifteen years ago. On each occasion our hosts were keen to give us a bit of a tour. One thing that always featured was a trip to a local school where we shown young kids (six, seven, eight years old) being taught English (this was in and around Guangzhou). They used to ask us questions to show off / practice their English – what’s your favourite football team / player was a common one. There were a helluva lot of Manchester United fans – little beggars. I spent a while talking to one of their teachers – he was a Canadian guy, probably in his early twenties, went round all of the local schools on a pushbike. I remember he said to me that he had just decided to “drop off the grid” so came to China and got a job TEFL.
Granted that was in the early 2000’s but it wouldn’t surprise me if there were enough English speakers to handle any translation needs that were required when it came to manuals. Quote:
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My ex is from Shenyang up in the north east not too far from the NK border. She was one of the few who could speak English mainly due to her father who before retiring had been a local government official responsible for most communications with English speakers.
My understanding from her is the further you get from Hong Kong, the fewer English speakers, and those that can have reduced fluency. |
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It would probably cost more to ship a T-55 from Israel than it would to make one
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The big sticking point I think is probably just how many tanks the Israeli's have in the parking lot in 1995 and whether or not they're thinking they might need them themselves. Other than that, not really seeing any significant reasons not to sell to China (they're certainly not giving them away!). |
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