Long wars and industrial mobilisation
This article touches on some of the issues we T2Kers have been discussing for as long as this forum has existed.
Long Wars and Industrial Mobilisation: It Won't Be World War II Again |
Interesting, but I disagree in some measure.
I don't think any arms producers (except for maybe shipyards) operate on 24/7 basis. There is thus a lot of "slack" built into the manufacturing base. Full mobilization will occur, but will take probably six months to a full year. A lot of government military contracts require maintaining manufacturing equipment from closed production lines in storage - mothballed. For example, when the B-1B production line was closed, Rockwell was required to mothball the production line equipment with the ability to reactivate production by a specified date (I think was either 6-months or one year). At one time, the F-16 production line was supposed to be able to "surge" to over 600 fighters per year. I think the requirement for M-1A1s was to surge to well over 500, but I am not sure. |
America now has only one tank factory at Lima Ohio. They haven't build a new tank from scratch at Lima since the mid-1990's as all tanks are reconditioned, but they are reconditioned to such a degree that they are practically new tanks.
M1 tank reconditioning at Lima averages half a tank per day (15 tanks a month). General Dynamics has stated that it can easily ramp that up to two and a half tanks a day (75 tanks a month). In wartime that figure could conceivably rise to over a 100 tanks a month. If we say that reconditioning takes the same amount of time as producing a new tank then that would be up to 1,200 tanks a year. Building another tank factory or re-commissioning the still existent Detroit Arsenal Tank Plant would not be that hard but it would probably take at least six months to either build from scratch or refit with the right machine tools and equipment. So with the right infrastructure it is possible that America could build up to 2,400 tanks a year after six months or so. Some discussion on this here...http://forum.juhlin.com/showthread.php?t=4627 |
There are also a number of Ammunition Plants that are government-owned and government-operated or government-owned and contractor-operated
a few that I can think of are Lake City Army Ammunition Plant McAlester Army Ammunition Plant Anniston Munitions Center Crane Army Ammunition Activity Scranton Army Ammunition Plant |
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While there's slack capacity in that nobody runs 24/7 shifts, there's often a shortage of trained labor even at current production levels, so ramping up will actually slow production while new people are brought up to speed on things like CNC operations, material handling procedures, and clean room requirements. Given the number of reservists that work for DoD contractors who would be recalled to active duty, the lack of a reserve of trained labor, and production bottlenecks at sub-tier suppliers, it could easily take multiple years for some production lines to be able to expand, since all items would need to expand; it does no good to double the production of Hellfire missile bodies if you can't make any more of the seeker heads, or the engines, or the fuses for the warheads, etc, etc. As it currently exists, the industrial system supporting the military is capable, but brittle. |
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This might be true with older equipment not built for decades, but not if we are talking about equipment currently being made or reconditioned such as M1 tanks. |
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"The words of Winston Churchill in the House of Commons, recalling the mobilization challenge of World War I, apply here:
'Here is the history of munitions production: first year, very little; second year, not much, but something; third year, almost all you want; fourth year, more than you need.'" Probably the best summary from the article, IMO as a Churchil-phile. |
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For small arms ammunition, the biggest supply chain risks are the powder and primer. Only one powder manufacturer is approved (St. Marks Powder of Crawfordville, FL) and they only have one nitrocellulose supplier (Radford Army Ammunition Plant in Virginia). The primer is produced only by ATK, although they have multiple plants capable of producing it. Of the 13 chemicals in the primer, 4 are sourced only from China, 2 only from Mexico, and 1 only from Brazil, which introduces risk in the case of hostilities with those countries or with a country capable of interdicting supply lines. The ability to expand small arms ammunition availability would depend on how willing the military was to use ammunition manufactured outside their control, because any project to expand LCAAP would require years to produce any significant amount of material. Early on, not a snowball's chance in hell. When the supply starts running short? Even if it's not done officially, there will be back channels procuring any ammunition they can get. |
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So as I stated "this might be true with older equipment not built for decades, but not if we are talking about equipment currently being made or reconditioned such as M1 tanks". The M1 has been reconditioned for the past 20 years, if there were major problems redeveloping parts, metals etc for the M1 then this would not be happening. |
The Naval War College Global War Games touched on this in 1988. Over the course of 1985-87 they gamed out a World War Three scenario till D+64 or so, but the 1988 Game was different. In 1988 the refs moved the time period ahead till D+75 and then created three possible scenarios' Stalemate, Red Dominant and Blue Dominant. From there the participants examined various likely outcomes. One of these included what a prolonged, non-nuclear, War would be like. From what I remember the general consensus was that it would take at least until D+135 for Blue to shift vital industries to a war time footing, beyond an increase of 15% or so from slack.
Here's a link to the relevant PDF. https://www.usnwc.edu/Publications/N...ts/20-pdf.aspx Benjamin |
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It's possible we're talking past each other, so if you were stating that parts currently being manufactured should be scalable to a higher production rate, then yes, I agree to a large extent. However, the point I'm trying to clarify is that even on items currently in active service, there may be components that haven't been manufactured in a long time, and those components may be difficult to re-start and to get to a decent volume of production. |
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I was in slidell, LA a few years back. that was were they were going mass produce the Stingray tank. production was to be up 25 per month. Now the hard part would be the 105mm cannons. Does anyone know about a tank planet that ran in the 80's in CA. Camdon AR also makes the M270 MLRS. this could be converted to M2/3 production. what about the Cat and John Deer production lines. the last two would not make "front line" weapons, but second line would be do able and spare parts would not be a problem they had shipped them all over the world. I think Henry rifles could change into production (a few hundred a month maybe more) of more modern designs. does anyone know how many armored car companies there are (the bank kind and the VIP SUVs types). how about 3/4 or 1 ton trucks production with M40 106mm. As older tanks take the field these will become usable, along with say Gatling (20mm? 12.7, 7.62, or 5.56) twin 50 cals with side good RHA would be a great gun truck. |
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thank you for the info, but i was thinking about getting away from the TOW and moving more to thinking of arming them with laser guided Hellfires. the GLID or other laser designatetor that might be usable. the link from Tank Encyclopedia on the Mahmia tank gave me some.... ideas http://www.tanks-encyclopedia.com/mo...ia/t-72_mahmia |
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The "big three" armored car builders are: LENCO Armoring of Pittsfield MA MCT of Memphis TN (primary builder of Brinks "B bodies") Texas Armoring of San Antonio TX (primary builder of GARDA "Y bodies" and both GARDA and LOOMIS "B bodies") The most common types of Commercial Armored Cars are: Lights: Built on E350/3500 vans, these weigh between 9,000 and 12,000 pounds and are armored to NIJ Level 3A. They will have no more than 2000lbs of cargo capacity and are primarily used in cities. The Dodge Sprinter is also included in this class of vehicle. These vehicles are not very durable. "Y" Bodies: These trucks are built on 11/2 ton to 2 1/2 ton frames. They run as high as 20,000lbs GVW. They will run NIJ Level 3A in protection, require a DOT medical card to drive and can carry up to 3000lbs. They are not as common as "B" bodies but are more common than Lights. "B" Bodies: The most common armored car in the US. Unlike "Y" bodies, which may be called by other names/designations, EVERYONE calls these trucks "B" Bodies. They were created by Brinks DECADES ago and are the most common truck seen in movies as well as on the road. They are built on the same chassis that the Army's 5-Tons commercial and school buses are (yes, school bus chassis are REALLY tough). The majority are armored with Aluminum armor to NIJ Level3 (rifle). The Loomis truck that rescued the wounded in LA's 44 Minute Shootout shrugged off several 7.62mm X 39mm rounds during the incident. Windows are often downgraded to NIJ Level3A to save money. I'd say 6 in 10 "B" bodies have 3A windows. The truck maxes out at 26,000 lbs (to stay under CDL requirements) with a 5,000lb cargo capacity. "Super B" Armored Cars: These "stretched B Bodies" are about 4ft longer than a "B" and exceed 30,000lbs (making them Class B CDL trucks). They are NIJ Level3 (rifle) and used as FED pickup trucks or in high threat environments (like LA and Detroit). It is standard practice for these vehicles to be equipped (at least initially) with run-flat tires, and self-sealing coolant systems which allow the vehicle to escape a kill zone with the tires or radiator shot up. Many will be equipped with armored push bars over their grills and gun ports too. Those are the most commonly encountered commercial armored cars I encountered during my 10-year stint with Great Lakes Armored (now Loomis) and Fidelity Armored (no longer in business...like 99% of small armored car companies after the 2008 Collapse). You can GOOGLE the armored car companies for more info. They often have a selection of used vehicles to choose from. |
The USSR kept a load of their old stuff in store. Like war era stuff.
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Soviets were producing new 85mm AP for Yugoslavia, North Korea, and maybe Eritrea right up to the collapse. For T-34s and ASU - 85s. |
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One of the sites I've looked at is Alpine Armoring, since they have a chart of what their ratings translate to (in caliber and number of rounds it's designed to resist), an inventory of available vehicles, and a list of what vehicles they do with the range of armoring options. There are probably others with similar information, but they were the first I found.
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One of the weak links in getting up to speed as to production would be that you would need to get more welders certified to weld armor for tanks and heavy vehicles. We were always doing that at BAE as production ebbed and flowed during the time I was there - I asked someone there about what happened when they started building MRAP's and they said how they had had to go on a crash training program to meet production and had to bring a lot of guys out of retirement to meet the goals
you can train people up but it takes time - and that would figure into any quick ramp up on armored vehicles as to running around the clock - BAE ran three shifts to get the MRAP's built that the military was screaming for in Iraq - with the third shift being a lot of maintenance and detail work but we added a complete production shift in a matter of weeks - with many of the guys doing it either being retired and brought back to train new guys or guys who had used to be on the line and then shifted back to get the second shift up and running |
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a Light would be AV 1 on every location BUT the engine compartment. The engine compartment is UNARMORED (unless an AV 2 bumper guard is installed at the front). a Squat/Y Body would have AV 2 on the cargo box and AV 1 on the driver's compartment (NIJ Level 3A Kevlar panels in the doors and NIJ Level 3A Lexan windows). The engine compartment is UNARMORED (unless an AV 2 bumper guard is installed at the front). a B Body would have AV 2 on the passenger and cargo compartments and NIJ Level 3 (rifle) Lexan windows (AV 2) on a 1-3 (1D10) or NIJ Level 3A (AV 1) on 4-10 (1D10). The engine compartment will have NIJ Level 3A side panels under the fiberglass hood on a 1-5 (1D10) and NIJ Level 2 armored mesh over the front of the radiator (AV 1/2). B Bodies seldom have pushbars/bumper guards because the hood opens forward to the front and they can interfere with the opening of the hood. a Super B will have AV 2 armor everywhere but the hood. The hood will be MADE of Kevlar at NIJ Level 3A (AV 1) in order to save weight. They also have a large "mesh guard" over the radiator that ups the AV to 2 on frontal hits. Push guards are seldom fitted because the hood opens forward and a guard could interfere with opening the hood. Run Flat Tires: Unlike military run-flats, these will only reduce the severity of a hit by one level (ie a Major hit becomes a Minor hit) for 100km. After that, the tire must roll OVER its Wear Value or fail. Self Sealing Fluid/Fuel Systems: These will reduce an engine or fuel hit by one level just like run-flats above. The engine sealing system will allow the engine to run for 100km or 30 minutes on a Major hit and the engine will run for 10 minutes on a Destroyed hit IF a roll OVER its Wear Value succeeds. |
and we know that bank armored cars are being used as APC's by several groups - the Florida module has New America using them as APC's, the NJ article in Challenge has Milgov using them also as armored cars
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This list is I think a fairly complete list of US (and Canadian) vehicle production facilities. I also have had way to much time on my hands over the past two days!!
Tanks The U.S. currently only builds the M1 Abrams, and has only active tank plant at Lima Ohio. The Lima plant is run by General Dynamics and hasn't built any new tanks since the mid-1990's. However General Dynamics rebuilds and refurbishes the M1 Abrams to such a degree that they are practically new tanks. The Detroit Arsenal Tank Plant was closed in 1996. Some of the plant was sold to the city of Warren, but the U.S. Army still occupies part of the facility and uses it for a variety of armored warfare research and development purposes. Plant equipment needed to produce tank components were removed to the Anniston Army Depot in Alabama. . Anniston Army Depot is a U.S. Army facility. Its main function has been a munitions storage facility since the end of the Second World War, but it is also capable of rebuilding and repairing the M1 Tank and its principal components. General Dynamics has a large industrial presence within Anniston, as does Honeywell who builds/rebuilds/refurbishes the M1 gas turbine engine. The Stryker wheeled fighting vehicle are also sent to Anniston by General Dynamics for final assembly and overhaul. If the U.S. ever goes on a war footing expect Anniston to be building tanks alongside Lima. Tank Assembly Plant Anniston, Alabama (U.S. Army/General Dynamics) Detroit, Michigan (U.S. Army) (* Closed) Lima, Ohio (General Dynamics) Armoured Vehicles U.S. armoured vehicles are currently built/rebuilt by General Dynamics, Textron and British owned BAE. General Dynamics (LAV-25, M1120 Stryker), Textron (M117), BAE (AAV-P7, M2/M3 Bradley, M113, M109). Except for the Stryker few if any of these vehicles are currently being built, with other work concentrating on rebuilds and supplying components. Engines are supplied by Caterpillar, Cummins and Detroit Diesel. Armoured Vehicle Assembly Plant Anniston, Alabama (U.S. Army/General Dynamics) Ladson, South Carolina (General Dynamics) London, Ontario Canada (General Dynamics) Slidell, Louisiana (Textron) York, Pennsylvania (BAE) MRAP's for U.S. forces are built by General Dynamics, BAE, Oshkosh and Navistar. General Dynamics (Buffalo, Cougar), BAE (Caiman, RG-33), Oshkosh (M-ATV) Navistar (MaxxPro). MRAP's are built at the armoured vehicle assembly plants or at commercial heavy vehicle assembly plants. Other companies also build MRAP's and police armoured vehicles such as Textron, Lenco, Texas Armoring, MCT and INKAS in Canada, but excluding Textron they are custom builders and not manufacturers. MRAP engines are supplied by Caterpillar, Cummins, Detroit Diesel, Mack and Navistar. Heavy Support Vehicles The major suppliers of large trucks and engineer vehicles to U.S. forces are Caterpillar (CAT D9, CAT 277), BAE (M9 ACE, M88), John Deere (John Deere 850J, TRAM 624K), Oshkosh (FMTV series, HEMTT series, HET) and Terex (TX51-19M). The M939 series was built by AM General in the 1980's, but AM now only make lighter vehicles. Large trucks and engineer vehicles are built at commercial plant/agricultural and heavy vehicle assembly plants across the U.S. and Canada. Many of the assembly plants listed below don't make any vehicles for the military, but most would be capable of making them. There are also a dozen or more custom builders of firetrucks, tankers, buses and other heavy vehicles across the U.S. and Canada, but they are a bit beyond the scope of this. Farm & Plant Vehicle Assembly Plants Augusta, Georgia (John Deere) Davenport, Iowa (John Deere) East Moline, Illinois (John Deere) Fargo, North Dakota (Case IH) (* CNH) Fort Wayne, Indiana (Terex) Grand Island, Nebraska (Case IH) (* CNH) Hesston, Kansas (AGCO-Massey Ferguson) Hutchinson, Kansas (Kuhn-Krauss) Jackson, Minnesota (AGCO-Massey Ferguson) Peoria, Illinois (Caterpillar) Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (Terex) Ottawa, Kansas (Kalmar Ottawa) Racine, Wisconsin (Case IH) (* CNH) Waterloo, Iowa (John Deere) Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada (Versatile) (* Rostselmarsh) Heavy Vehicles Assembly Plants Appleton, Wisconsin (Oshkosh) Chillicothe, Ohio (Kenworth) (* Paccar) Cleveland, North Carolina (Freightliner) (* Daimler-Benz) Cleveland, North Carolina (MAN) (* Volkswagen) Denton, Texas (Peterbilt) (* Paccar) Dodge Centre, Minnesota (Oshkosh) High Point, North Carolina (Thomas Built Buses) (* Daimler-Benz) Ladson, South Carolina (Daimler-Benz) Macungie, Pennsylvania (Mack) (* Volvo) Mount Holy, North Carolina (Freightliner) (* Daimler-Benz) Oshkosh, Wisconsin (Oshkosh) Portland, Oregon (Western Star) (* Daimler-Benz) Renton, Washington (Kenworth) (* Paccar) Springfield, Ohio (Navistar) St. Therese, Quebec Canada (Peterbilt) (* Paccar) West Point, Mississippi (Navistar) Williamstown, West Virginia (Hino) (* Toyota) Engine Plants Anniston, Alabama (U.S. Army/Honeywell) Columbus, Indiana (Cummins) Hagerstown, Maryland (Mack) (* Volvo) Huntsville, Alabama (Navistar) Melrose Park, Illinois (Navistar) Mobile, Alabama (Continental) (* AVIC) Mossville, Illinois (Caterpillar) Peoria, Illinois (Caterpillar) Redford, Michigan (Detroit Diesel) (* Daimler-Benz) Rocky Mount, North Carolina (Cummins) Seymour, Indiana (Cummins) Waterloo, Iowa (John Deere) Waukesha, Wisconsin (Navistar) Light Support Vehicles Light vehicles include pick-up trucks, commercial vans and vehicles specifically designed for military service. The major suppliers of military light vehicles to U.S. forces are AM General (HMMWV) and Oshkosh (L-ATV series, LVSR). The Mercedes G-Class fast attack vehicle is built by Daimler-Benz in Germany, and the RSOV is built by Land Rover in Britain. Oshkosh builds light military vehicles at their heavy vehicle assembly plants, but any number of commercial assembly plants could be relatively easily converted to build these type of vehicles. Vehicle Assembly Plants Alliston, Ontario Canada (Honda) Arlington, Texas (GM) Avon Lake, Ohio (Ford) Belvidere, Illinois (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Blue Springs, Mississippi (Toyota) Bowling Green, Kentucky (GM) Brampton, Ontario Canada (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Cambridge, Ontario Canada (Toyota) Carton, Mississippi (Nissan) Charlotte, Michigan (Isuzu) Chattanooga, Tennessee (Volkswagen) Chicago, Illinois (Ford) Dearborn, Michigan (Ford) Detroit, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Detroit, Michigan (GM) East Liberty, Ohio (Honda) Fairfax, Kansas (GM) Flat Rock, Michigan (Ford) Flint, Michigan (GM) Fort Wayne, Indiana (GM) Freemont, California (Tesla) Georgetown, Kentucky (Toyota) Greensburg, Indiana (Honda) Ingersoll, Ontario Canada (GM) Kansas City, Missouri (Ford) Lafayette, Indiana (Subaru) Lansing, Michigan (GM) Lincoln, Alabama (Honda) Livonia, Michigan (AM General) Lordstown, Ohio (GM) Louisville, Kentucky (Ford) Marysville, Ohio (Honda) Mishawaka, Indiana (AM General) Montgomery, Alabama (Hyundai) Normal, Illinois (Mitsubishi) Oakville, Ontario Canada (Ford) Orion, Michigan (GM) Oshawa, Ontario Canada (GM) Princeton, Indiana (Toyota) San Antonio, Texas (Toyota) Smyrna, Tennessee (Nissan) Spartanburg, South Carolina (BMW) Spring Hill, Tennessee (GM) Sterling Heights, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Timmonsville, South Carolina (Nissan) Tuscaloosa, Alabama (Mercedes) (* Daimler-Benz) Wakarusa, Indiana (Isuzu) Wayne, Michigan (Ford) Warren, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Wentzville, Missouri (GM) West Point, Georgia (Kia) (* Hyundai) Windsor, Ontario Canada (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Woodstock, Ontario Canada (Toyota) Engine Plants Alliston, Ontario Canada (Honda) Anna, Ohio (Honda) Buffalo, New York (GM) Buffalo, West Virginia (Toyota) Cambridge, Ontario Canada (Toyota) Cleveland, Ohio (Ford) Dearborn, Michigan (Ford) Deckard, Tennessee (Nissan) Defiance, Ohio (GM) Detroit, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Dundee, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Essex, Ontario Canada (Ford) Flint, Michigan (GM) Georgetown, Kentucky (Toyota) Huntsville, Alabama (Toyota) Lima, Ohio (Ford) Lincoln, Alabama (Honda) Romeo, Michigan (Ford) Romulus, Michigan (GM) Trenton, Michigan (Chrysler) (* Fiat) Windsor, Ontario Canada (Ford) Wixom, Michigan (GM) Woodhaven, Michigan (Ford) |
BAE is still remanufacturing and rebuilding Bradley's and they are building the M109A5 plus for foreign customers as well as the M109 PIM for the US Army. They also are continuing to make M88A2 conversions as well. They retained the ability and the tooling to make new Bradleys and M109's and M88's with the most recent new builds being a series of 8 M88A2's for Iraq.
Oh and it's John Deere by the way. And you need to add the tank plant for the Stingray which would have been around for sure for the Twilight War as well as new build M8 light tanks at BAE in York. |
And you have the JLG mfg plants in PA that made parts for the MRAP's for Oshkosh as well as material handlers for the military. Those facilities in time of war could easily be converted to make light support and light armored vehicles.
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And "Except for the Stryker few if any of these vehicles are currently being built, with other work concentrating on rebuilds and supplying components." which is they are not being mass produced. Quote:
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I would class Stingray as an armoured vehicle not a tank, and it hasn't been built for about 25 years. The M8 was cancelled in 1997 before it went into production. The Stingray was built by Cadillac Gage now part of Textron and I believe their assembly plant is at Slidell, Louisiana which I listed under armoured vehicles. |
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There are hundreds more companies and factories that make accessories and components, or who custom build vehicles and chassis from major suppliers. If you want to list them all feel free but I haven't got time to spend the next 2 years looking them all up. |
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it only finally slowed down in 2012-2013 after being that way for years And a rate of 8 M88A2 per month is what the line was designed for - for that vehicle that is a very good production rate I am looking at what could be done during the Twilight War time period - which is why vehicles like the M8 and the Stingray need to be figured in |
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So they definitely need to be added to the light armored vehicle producers if you are looking at current military production sites - it could easily get back to those numbers if need be. |
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That is pretty much what you are talking about, remanufacture! Quote:
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Description of the JLG work
The work has been split between Oshkosh Defense plants in Wisconsin and JLG’s McConnellsburg plant, with JLG making 100 percent of the MATV cabs and completing 50 percent of the M-ATV assemblies. The remaining half of the assemblies are completed by Oshkosh Defense. This combined effort has produced 1,000 M-ATVs per month since December. JLG built the cabs and completed the assembly of the vehicle - the engines came from Caterpillar, the chassis came from the Medium Tactical Vehicle Replacement (MTVR) chassis that Oshkosh designed and Oshkosh's TAK-4 suspension system and the transmission came from Allison Which is standard for vehicles - i.e. Oshkosh's assembly plant doesnt build their own engines or transmissions they bring them in and install them just like we did - same for BAE - we didnt build engines or transmissions |
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