OT: Putin's War in Ukraine
 

So Putin invaded the Ukraine today and we did nothing, but now... China has jets invading Taiwan's airspace. We have a treaty with them and they do make like 95% of the World's computer chips.

My fellow Americans...

PACK YOUR S**T! We're headed to Ukraine! The President of Ukraine just announced that they are giving anybody who wants one, an AK! Full auto too!
whoohoo!

It'll go well with the spam cans of Ukrainian surplus 5.45 that I bought when they were under a hundred bucks each. I'll bet they'd like 'em back now. :/

- C.

Twenty years and several motorcycle accidents ago I would still have been keen. Sadly this Aussie's most useful combat role these days would be as a sand bag.

Life Imitating Art
 

It's sad to see speculation from months and even years ago becoming present-day reality.

I really hope that China does not conclude from the way that Russia's Ukraine invasion is going down (and NATO's response, so far) that it is time to "liberate" Taiwan.

The Wall Street Journal claims that Russia and China "now hold a stronger hand in confronting the West than during the Cold War".

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...yUI_WTVxjrT8eM

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I saw that too, I prefer a Henry Rifle, or replica of one) that was used in the Civil War, or Steve McQueen's "Mare's Leg," but....

There is one You-Tuber I enjoy, Sergei of the Ushanka Show about him growing up in the USSR. He's Ukrainian and thought that Putin would back down. I just knew Putin was going to do it, maybe it is my pessimistic side, knowledge of history or just gut feeling but this time I hate being correct.

I'm Not Crying, You're Crying.
 

This Ukrainian armed forces recruitment commercial, released in 2014, is super powerful, and seemingly prescient.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOCbW1hc6Ng

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So now Putin has put his nuclear forces on alert. Three days into the conflict and Russia is already threatening nuclear war... over the West rendering aid to Ukraine. The standing consensus among both NATO and the hobbyists who were following the news feeds is that Russia can sustain this tempo of operations for 7 days. IF the fight stretches out to 10 days, the Russians will lose the initiative due to a lack of fuel and ammo.

Uh-oh
 

It seems that Putin might have backed himself into a corner. Scarily, a cornered dictator is often the most dangerous kind...

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I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility that he could be removed by the Russian security services or the military. Personal loyalty only goes so far, particularly if the mood of the Russian populace continues to turn against the current course of action.

I'll call it now. IF Russia occupies Ukraine, we will see movement against Georgia as a non-aligned country next. It's apparent to me that Appeasement is not going to work when you hear Putin say that it was a mistake to disband the old Warsaw Pact. He is "old guard" KGB and thinks as they taught him to think.

I think we (NATO) should have countries like Poland, the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, and Bulgaria dust off that old PACT equipment and give it to Ukraine. They have the numbers (240K) to fight but really lack equipment. Giving them the PACT equipment means NATO doesn't have to risk troops training the Ukrainians on new equipment. The US then digs into its HUGE stockpile of surplus and gives back our former PACT NATO members newer equipment to replace their PACT stuff.

For example, Poland just bought 250 M1 Abrams because Germany is having kittens about her buying Leopard 2a4s. So we have Poland ship their 400 T72s and 300 T91 TWARDY tanks to Ukraine and replace them with M1 Abrams either directly in kind or in some ratio (like 2 T72s for 1 M1). Then we have Poland give her MIG 29s to Ukraine and we replace those with our older F15s (which we, in turn, replace with F15ex models).

This way we can support Ukraine without spilling NATO blood and the risk of escalation on our part.

I was also integrating T54/55 western upgrade like Isreal has done. Adding a 105MM, western diesel and powertrain. I also added M60A3's from NATO stocks for reserve fomations.

Very powerful. Thanks for sharing.

Interesting article
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2...epends/362505/

I'm not sure if Russia could afford going anywhere once they would have one this war. Right now, the Russian ruble has dropped below 1 cent ($ or €) and Russia is not building new smart weapons, since they need imports from the EU for that.

Also, I'd not exactly call Putin old guard KGB, he's basically the last generation of career officers, who made it into a professional career while the USSR still existed. He was never as reliable as the old school leaders of the KGB or USSR used to be. He seems to have self-radicalized during the pandemic, too, so what we're missing from him is reliability and trustworthiness, which existed between top-level officials during the 1970s and 1980s.

There are basically no Leopard 2A4s left for anyone to buy and no one in NATO would want to. The A4 model is a 30 year old piece of equipment and badly out of date: The gun is too short, armor to low and optics/sensors badly out of date. Buying the latest model, the A7 generation (different iterations available) is expensive, however. The same goes for buying old F-15s. That's not what Poland needs, those birds are old and obsolescent. I think Poland will go for the F-35 as is Germany now after it's surprisingly decisive course change this weekend: There will be a €100 billion fund for the Bundeswehr this year as well as a a true funding North of 2 % BIP in every future year. Currently, that would mean a defense budget approaching or beyond of €80 billion per year for Germany, or about 25 % more than Russia lately spent, but without nuclear forces to pay for as well as no cheap conscripted soldiers (as of today, who knows what 2022 will hold).

However, neither the 250 M1 Abrams nor airplanes will be available for Poland immediately, let alone integrated into the armed force. The same can be said for Bulgaria, who was a mentioned second candidate for a fighter swap scheme with Ukraine.

However, everything not immediately available to Ukraine and accessible without long transition and training periods, won't help Ukrainians win the war. This war is entering a new phase today, as Russia is shelling Kharkiv heavily - one might speak of an early 'Grosny' treatment - and approaching Kiev with a 40 km long column of mechanized forces including logistical elements. The battle for Kyiv will decide the next phase of the war and might decide the whole war indeed, since Russia could install a puppet regime in conquered Kyiv and keep pushing into the rest of Ukraine after that. Should Ukrainian forces loose their C³ facilities and or political leadership sitting in Kyiv, this would be a huge blow to the country's fight to remain independent and sovereign.

That being said, I do not see a way, where this war can be won by Ukraine without considerably more aid by Western nations, including direct support by NATO and/or EU troops. This would up the ante, however, as Russian troops could, and indeed likely would, be fired upon by Western troops and vice versa. As everyone can imagine, this could spill over into Belarus and later NATO partners, such as Poland, the Baltic nations, Romania as well as others, too.

Poland, Belarus, and Slovakia are waiting for Ukrainian pilots to pick up 70 fighter planes, and since those countries still have stocks of Russian-made planes, they should be able to go into action without a ton of training needed.

By this morning, those planes may already be in Ukraine.

I Want to Believe in Ghosts
 

This is one rumor I hate to debunk.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ts-dont-add-up

Hopefully, it's just the number (70) that is incorrect, not the entire story, and Ukraine still ends up getting some replacement combat aircraft from its former Pact neighbors.

Viva the Ghost of Kiev!

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I meant Bulgaria, not Belarus.

I read a seperate report that Slovakian pilots have cross-trained on F16's so they have 20-odd Mig-29's they are not using.

Recently, U.S. defense officials reported that Russia does not have air superiority over Ukraine, which suggests they are holding back, or have suffered outsized losses. In any case, there is little time to waste, because a no-fly zone is a non-starter.

Lonely Su
 

Again, I wish it were otherwise, but it looks like all that talk about rearming the Ukrainian air force was just that- talk.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-for-some-time

:(

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The flaw in that logic is that oil is traded in DOLLARS. While the PEOPLE of Russia are suffering as a result of sanctions, Putin (and his oil companies) is dealing in US dollars because Biden hasn't even enacted the oil embargo against Russia yet. And people accused Trump of being a Russian puppet. I can say in Biden's defense that he probably doesn't understand what's really happening. My father had dementia the last year before he died and his confusion would be extreme on occasion. Joe reminds me more of my father every day.

That's not true either. Germany HAS A4s and A5s in their mothballs inventory and Poland was trying to buy them but Germany is saving money by upgrading the older A4s & A5s to the new A7 standard. This resulted in Poland not being able to buy the cheaper A4s and A5s (of which she has over 100 each) so she started upgrading them with Rhinemetal's help. But the US approved the sale of 250 M1A3 SEP tanks in January. So Poland now plans on buying up to 500 M1A3 SEPS which cost almost the same as upgrading their Leopard 2s to the new PL standard they developed with Rhinemetal. The suggested plan with Ukraine was to have Poland give them her 338 T72s and her 232 Twardy tanks and the US will replace those tanks with surplus M1A2 (not the new SEPs, just surplus A2s). The rumor was we would give Poland 350 M1s and she would ship her PACT tanks to the border.

The other deal (which may yet go through) has Poland giving Ukraine 24 MIG 29s and we immediately transfer 24 F15 Strike Eagles to Poland (from the UK) to complement her F35s. The F15 Strike Eagle is NOT obsolete and the US still spends more than 100 million per plane to buy newer Strike Eagles even now. They are important to the new "distributed lethality" concept that the Navy introduced and the Air Force seems to have adopted as well. The F35 flies ahead with 2 AA missiles (for self-defense), 2 anti-radar missiles, and 2 air-to-ground missiles (or 4 if Hellfires are carried instead of Mavericks) on board. It then acts as a scout/spotter for the F15s (which carry 12 missiles each) who act as "missile trucks," firing their missiles which are then directed to the target by the F35. This high-low system is the Air Force's new doctrine.

The idea for giving the indicated systems to Ukraine is that they won't need to be trained on those systems because they already use them. The US would then bring in the new systems to the NATO members as "payment" for their sacrifice of equipment while simultaneously upgrading their capabilities so we don't have to keep our troops in harm's way.

I disagree with your assessment of Ukraine's chances because she currently has more than 240K people "under arms." That's quantitatively a match for Russia's (mostly conscripted) forces... especially IF this turns into an Insurgency. Putin cannot simply burn Kyiv to the ground as he did with Grozny in 2000. That will only harden the Ukrainian's hearts and turn the West farther against him.

What Ukraine NEEDS is arms, ammo, and food... which is flowing in now. I still believe if the Ukrainians can hold on for 10 days, they can really hurt Putin's chances of victory. And I'm basing that on OUR (the US Army's) logistics consumption on the offensive. The Russians have a smaller "logistics tail" than we do and are using far more rockets and artillery than we would. Contrary to popular opinion, morale and logistics win wars [at the strategic level], not just firepower.

It definitely looks like politics is getting in the way. Both Slovakia and Bulgaria are saying "no joy" to the aircraft swap. That 70 jet total was something that was supposed to include a US-brokered swap of MIG 29s and SU-27s from elsewhere. Maybe Africa or Indonesia? Who knows? I cannot even keep track of who our allies are these days!

That's been my assessment in recent days too. The Russians have struggled with their logistics only a couple of days into this. If they can't achieve at least some of their objectives by day 10, they're going to be in a lot of trouble. Somebody in the Russian government or security services may even decide to put a stop to this with the application of some 9mm medicine.

Is anyone else surprised by how poor the Russian troops have performed? Don't get me wrong, I'm glad that they are doing badly, but I thought that even without their heavy artillery they would make quicker progress than they have. Has the average Russian infantryman been proved to not be as capable as we expected them to be?

I think that in addition to the myriad of logistical and command issues without motivation, and with literal kinship, there is going to be casual sabotage.

Oh we left our engines running overnight to keep warm.

Hmmm fork in a road and we aren't sure without signs. Let's go towards the sunrise (East) as that is a good marker.

I'll just nudge that to be a bit short of the target. If anyone asks I thought we had a tail wind.

People don't realize that Ukraine had 240k people under arms and almost 1500 MBTs. The initial Russian assault was about 50k troops and 600 of their 1300 MBTs. They also failed to gain air superiority, a big mistske in my opinion.

The Russian advance was about as far a an AFV like those could go on a single tank of gas while fighting... so a "tactical pause" was inevitable for logistics reasons. The real issue is the ambushing of supply convoys as Russian logistics is simply not as efficient as Western logistics.

Poor Discipline and Supply Troubles?
 

IF you are planning an occupation for "peacekeeping" reasons, looting is a bad idea. It makes the locals hate you even more.

https://youtu.be/OoM5yx1IVFY

It doesn't help that they are unwilling conscripts. I remember Uncle Sam ALWAYS throwing the "YOU VOLUNTEERED FOR THIS!" mantra in our faces. Those poor Russian troops didn't even get that option.

They're willfully using grid-square removers on civilian centers, I doubt there's much "literal kinship" happening.

I am not saying everyone but if 10% are lackadaisical or outright disruptive, it hurts the plan.

One thing that I've found really curious about the video clips of shot-up Russian vehicle columns circulating widely is the lack of bodies on the scene. I'll post the link when I have a chance to find it, but there's one where a guy walks through a column of at least a dozen gutted Russian APCs and trucks and there's not a body visible in any frame. There's another clip showing Ukrainian troops rummaging through four or five shot-up Tigr LAV 4x4s and, again, there are no bodies, blood pools, or anything suggesting human casualties in sight.

This is very different than the "Highway of Death" images broadcast from Kuwait, 1991, where images of carbonized corpses abounded (a bit of a PR issue for the military back then, IIRC).

Either the Ukrainians are really good at sanitizing the scene, or the majority of the Russian crews abandoned their vehicles before the "ambush", or at the first sign of trouble.

Source, please?

Assuming the above figures are accurate, I wonder how many of those losses are hard kills and how many are attrition due to mechanical break-down (i.e. how many of those losses are not recoverable v how many are).

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I'm assuming that low morale within the Russian ranks, and possibly even a hesitancy at command levels, is playing a major factor.

Unlike in, say, Iraq, it doesn't seem like there was any major effort to psych up the troops to go do their illegal war. The result seems to be that, far from feeling urraaaaaah about it, they are more than happy to find any excuse not to fight.

(It is however increasingly a myth that all/most Russian troops are conscripts. They've had a hybrid conscript/contract structure for years now, and it's been revised significantly again within the last decade)

I'm not calling any victors at this point, though. It took the US three weeks to take Baghdad, after all. Some people have been eager to say that the failure to take Kyiv in five days means the war is lost, and I just don't think that's remotely true. Or that taking Kyiv means the situation necessarily changes dramatically, anyway.

On the operational level, though, some stuff just doesn't make sense from my Western eyes. The real lack of attempt to secure air superiority, for instance. I know Russia probably has a shortage of precision weapons and might be concerned about their ability to replace them. But this aspect still puzzles me. My best guess is either they were concerned they'd take excessive losses, or they just simply absolutely lack the thinking/capability. Integration between the forces certainly isn't up to US levels, but this seems like barely even trying.

It also seems likely that even if/when the conventional phase of this war is over, many Ukrainians are now fully invested in defending their country, and a long insurgency could most definitely follow. It's a big country, it's well armed (and only getting more so), and you need morale to police an insurgency as well.

In the old USSR, leaders "got the flu", Soviet flu came in two strains, 9X18MM or cyanide.

This. Anyway you slice it, this looks like the most enduring outcome. The Russians have bought themselves a long term occupation in a radicalized and hostile country the size of France with an aggrieved neighbor in Poland that is more than willing to throw gas on the fire. The only strategic outcome that makes sense (keep in mind, btw, that none of this makes sense) is that the two client states are enlarged at Ukraine's expense, and a puppet regime is emplaced to govern a rump Ukraine according to orders from Moscow; there's no way to achieve those goals that doesn't entail suppressing an insurgency/civil war. Good luck, Ivan.

Just to throw some thoughts out there for discussion:

1. I'm really curious to see what the analysis will look like on Ukraine's stellar propaganda looks like. So far they've been crushing it with almost all discussion online heavily favoring them, even despite Russia's best efforts to stop it.

2. On that same note, this is the first major war where everyone and their mother had cell phones with video capability. I'm curious to know how all of the abundance of footage has helped shape perception around the world. Will people be more adverse to getting into wars in the future based on this? Or even just the near future?

3. I'm still concerned that the worst may yet be to come. While we all sound aligned on Russia's performance so far, it definitely seems like they've avoided using their strategic assets and have been attempting to catch Ukraine intact (probably in order to set up a client state). As the Russians become mired down, will Putin escalate further than he already has in order to continue making forward progress?

When he starts vocalizing those thoughts is when you have to hope someone else nearby is willing to take action.

I will agree that Ukraine's propaganda has been outstanding. I assume they're getting the full support of... well, basically the entire world.

Russian propaganda seems very suppressed, to the point that if they're even claiming tactical victories, I'm not hearing about it. And other than a small number of people (of questionable critical thinking capacity) repeating the "but... Ukrainian Nazis!" line, I don't see signs of anyone really buying any of it.

History Rhymes
 

Agreed. Russia will most likely defeat Ukraine's conventional forces, seize the capital, and install a puppet government. It's probably only a matter of time. As you pointed out, however, after that, Putin will almost certainly be saddled with an anti-Russian insurgency that could drag on for months, if not years.

What then? This could play out in a number of ways. Here are a few.

A. Putin declares victory before Ukraine is decisively defeated, and withdraws Russian troops from all but the disputed eastern regions. "Mission accomplished!" Putin crows, "That was the plan all along." He saves some face, and staunches the bleeding. Ukraine is weakened; NATO is put on notice. Russia has a small buffer (the Donbass) and a greatly weakened neighbor that has been intimidated to the point where it will no longer seek NATO membership.

B. The war drags on and on, from a largely conventional conflict, to a low intensity insurgency. Russia continues to bleed, militarily and economically. These losses become unsustainable.

C. Fed up with B, the Russian military ousts Putin in a coup.

D. Fed up with B, ordinary Russians launch a popular uprising (a la Maidan, 2014) and oust Putin.

E. Putin sees the writing on the wall. Before either C or D can transpire, he escalates the war (perhaps by attacking the Baltics), and draws NATO into a wider conflict which he frames as an existential struggle for Russia's very survival.

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I don't think this will play out the way Putin hoped (a quick victory, regime change, and a puppet, buffer state Ukraine). Given Ukraine's courage and tenacity- which I think came as quite a surprise to Putin- and materiel support to Ukraine from the West- the best that he can hope for now is probably Option A (in part- I don't think Ukraine will ever be cowed, after the heart they've shown). I'm kind of surprised that Putin hasn't already declared victory and begun the withdrawal. If he hasn't already, very soon he'll pass the point of no return and become locked in to a potentially much longer, much more costly struggle for control of Ukraine. After that, Option B is inevitable, and Options C, D, and E all become more likely endgames.

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Where does Ukraine's application for EU membership fit in?

From what I've read, it could take years to be accepted, if at all. Apparently, Ukraine's high level of corruption is a sticking point for numerous EU nations. The Russian invasion considerably complicates matters further.

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Sources...

DW News

Funker Tactical = who actually uploaded the pictures of that Ukrainian convoy which was smoked by Russian helos. That Kah-52 Alligator that got shot down was hit by a dual barreled 23mm mounted on a 5-Ton truck. I guess it came in too low. The pilot put it down and just walked away like a boss.

Radio Free America = The looting video came from them.

Some pictures from VOX News

The statement from Ukraine's security minister at the EU or UN emergency meeting where HE CLAIMED 600+ tanks destroyed. Most of the good video shots are being reused by every major network. How accurate these reports are is still in question.

My guess is that Ukraine's losses are "hard losses" mostly inflicted by bombing, helos, and the destruction of munitions depots.

The posted thermobaric explosion of the ammo depot outside Kyiv/Kiev reportedly claimed 100 AFVs that were rearming. I would guess that's accurate. It was a huge explosion and afterward, you can hear the "crackle" of munitions lighting off.

The Russian losses appear to be mostly mechanical issues OR running out of fuel. These are occurring mainly in the North where the conscript units are massed. As you already stated, the troops just up and abandon their equipment when the fuel and ammo are gone. The Ukrainian troops there are attacking the convoys from Belarus and the tanks are older T72s. Those troops have very poor discipline and some funny incidents have occurred... like a farmer stealing an unattended AFV with his tractor as the driver runs up and tries to stop him. And I thought the kids in Somalia were bad!

https://youtu.be/FHkST5SdS98

Sadly this is also where that young Ukrainian Engineer sacrificed himself to blow up that bridge to Kyiv. That probably slowed up the Russians too.

As far as I can tell, the Donetsk region seems to be suffering hard losses. That is where the Ukrainians are using those Turkish drones to designate for laser-guided munitions to the front and rear of a convoy where they stop it by destroying those vehicles. The Artillery then opens up on the remaining trapped vehicles, destroying them. I have seen a video of one column destroyed this way with the bodies under brown tarps. The other video is off a bunch of Hinds strafing a Russian column with rockets and missiles. Sadly, there are videos of the Ukrainians getting pasted here as badly as the Russians are. I think the difference here is that the Russian troops are blooded veterans working with the rebels from the area. They seem to have T80s and T90s... And of course, Kah-52 helo gunships.

The Crimea where the Russian Amphibs landed has those upgraded T55s that the Russian Marines use rolling across the country. Ukraine met them with T64s but the Russians seemed to have prevailed. The Russians are in pretty complete control in the South.