T2K +30: The Korean Peninsula.....
 

Hi guys! Yes, it's another future WW3 thread! OK using today's IRL events and adding a generation, regardless of who wins in the Ukraine, the economies are suffering, armories and oil reserves are emptied and the strain causes unrest.... Replace Gorby and Yeltsin with reformers and have Russia as a Chinese client state. The Sino/ Western cold war goes hot. Pro American Chinese can explain the airborne unit with the 2nd ID. The Russian Yalu commander was originally subordinate to the ChiComs, but the war has made his command semiautonomous. Now please show me what I know you guys can do and suggest other areas to modify.

Post-Ukraine Russia isn't going to have a whole lot to contribute to the far east in terms of equipment beyond the Pacific fleet. The US and South Korea would easily be able to wipe the floor with North Korea despite some initial early losses (hello 5000 mobile rocket launchers), particularly once the US 3rd and 11th fleets manage to intervene.

Once China and Russia get involved in the ground war on the peninsula though, things would get very ugly indeed. China has learned its lessons from watching the US operate during the GWOT, and has reformed their military to be more capable, particularly with combined arms operations. They still have an utterly staggering number of troops to contribute (assuming they aren't bogged down elsewhere), particularly from the north.

Japan would be reluctant to get involved based on their historically poor relations with South Korea, but would likely get dragged in eventually regardless. ANZAC would contribute some token forces. Other allies would probably send help as well depending upon what they have available to donate.

Yes, a lot of things depend on everyone not really able to sustain a conventional war. I'd almost have Russia using Chinese heavy equipment given their bare shelves.