The Russians are worried about Poland
 

Russian views on Poland's embrace of the USA

Now, I'm not going to get political about if it's good or bad. No one's going to like my views.

Instead I'm going to look at this as the new Twilight War.

Russia is considering tasking Iskander-M nuclear missile to counter Polish missile threats to its Kaliningrad naval base from bases in Gdansk.

Here we have the basis of another European Theatre. If Poland sides with NATO we still have Ukraine on the Russian flank. Realistically without nuclear deterrents Russia is going under fast. They'll also get hit from Afghanistan and Georgia. No Russian allies are nearby except probably Serbia which can't do much, being surrounded by NATO.

So Russia goes down swinging and launches its strategic forces, possibly even using dead-man orders as the Moscow command is decapitated.

However Russia has strenuously been modernising. While its armour forces still rely on upgraded second generation tanks Russian infantry are now level-pegging with the best in the world. The Russians took long cold lessons from Desert Storm* and not only changed the way their troops are trained but also massively invested in upgrading their electronic capacity. Indeed this is where most of their military funding has gone in the last few years and they now are suspected to have parity with the west.

This means in a twilight scenario Russian infantry are going to be as well equipped and supported as western troops. The twilight scenario mandates that western superiority in aerospace, naval and strategic forces are no longer relevant.

Poland also has been upgrading as fast as it can. However, even though the beneficiaries of western largess they have been unable to match Russian modernisation quantitatively and qualitatively. Polish forces will buckle if the Russians get desperate and launch a preemptive strike.

Ukraine has little hope. Russian anger over their role in several situations, rightly or wrongly, means that Russian pressure has run down their military forces. They still have large stores of rusting second generation equipment but they have nowhere near the electronic and support capability the Russians now posses. In my mind Russia will go for a knock-out blow to secure their flank and it has a good chance of success.

Unless the USA can spare the forces to strike through Afghanistan and Georgia it is likely that Russia will be able to desperately hold the line there. The problem is that while the USA retasks its vast forces it may see weak spots in those two theatres and blow through Russian holding units. This has a serious risk though; if the Russians manage a holding action they might tie down troops that the USA could use to steam roll Russian troops in the European front. The USA fully understands the concept of 'schwerpunkt' and might also be adverse with anything to do with more fighting in the Afghan Theatre. However they do have assets there and will use them to good effect.

Traditional NATO partners will be very unhappy with this scenario. German and France have wanted de-escalation rather than escalation and have viewed the build up in Poland with alarm. It is possible that these two nations might hold troops at their borders rather than become targets for a desperate Russian strike. This is a wild card.

(*a great intel document on this was just posted on the Fb page)