Russian TU-22M Bomber Downed Over Russia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAwIVMfs3GM



Well this is something I never expected to actually see real life video of, even though I have read about, thought about, and even gamed many scenarios where such a thing would happen.

Probably friendly fire, but maybe spec ops working near an airfield?

Allegedly our old friend the Ukrainian S-200. According to Ukrainian Intelligence, they were waiting for a week for the bombers to get close enough to an emplaced launcher, and they got a hit at 308 kilometers. An anonymous Ukrainian defense official told The War Zone that they've received "help from partners" upgrading the S-200's guidance system.

Personal speculation is they may have gotten assistance from Poland, who upgraded their monkey model S-200 missiles between 1999-2002, replacing tubes with transistors. I also suspect they may have slipped in an active radar seeker with the saved space/mass to help improve long-range accuracy over the semi-active radar seeker originally fitted - there was speculation right before the war that they had developed an active seeker for the S-125 and were trying to fit it to the S-200. If that improved accuracy sufficiently, they could also shrink the warhead and program the updated electronics to modify the flight profile to eke out some extra range with a slightly lighter missile. It would also let them shut off the ground radar much earlier if it wasn't having to illuminate the target for SARH, reducing the ground units' vulnerability to SEAD.

US Ukraine bill passed - \o/ yay!

I found it interesting an ATACMS transfer was coded into the text

https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-...5/text?s=2&r=4

While I am pretty sure we have already delivered some, I have been waiting for the time when there would be substantial delivery. Hopefully it will be soon.

While ATACMS may not be the final straw, along with F-16s (and Nato specific ordinance) arriving I am feeling more confident the Kerch bridge will not see new years day.

I'm a long time reader of The War Zone. But in the last two or three days i have not been able to read the articles when i click on them. I get a message that reads

"Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser console for more information)."

Any ideas if this is a problem my end? Or their end? Anyone else having a problem?

I haven't had any issues. I'm not a tech-savvy guy, but try clearing your cache and see if that doesn't clear up the issue.

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Ukrainian USV armed with a twin rail launcher for R-73 all-aspect IR homing air-to-air missiles.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GM5pitLX...png&name=small

I have been waiting for something like this to show up. The missile capability probably limits it to low flying and slow speed targets (helicopters) but still a nice addition to the Black sea.

Necessity is the Mother of Invention
 

War Zone dropped an article about this today.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/uk...o-air-missiles

The contrast in styles is somewhat humorous.

Ukrainian innovation: Drone attack boat with IR homing AAMs.

Russian innovation: Build a metal shed around an MBT to protect it from FPV attack drones.

Slava Ukraini!

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The Ukrainians are using their new, longer-range ATACMS to hit SAM sites and Russian-held airfields in Crimea. I wonder what their long-game is. I'm guessing that it's a shaping operation, to prepare for entry of the incoming F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark. That said, I'm not sure what the point is, strategically, as, at this point, I don't think Ukraine has any realistic chance of regaining Crimea by force-of-arms. So why expend their finite stock of long-range ATACMS in pursuit of that goal? It seems like they could be better spent shaping the battlefield in Donetsk and/or around Kharkiv, where UAF ground and- soon- air forces have a much better (but still not great, sadly) chance of regaining territory.

Thoughts?

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Russia has been using those sites to launch missiles at civilian targets within Ukraine, both converted SAMs and hypersonics carried by aircraft flying from Crimean airbases. Knocking those out would reduce Russia's ability to target Odessa in particular, allowing more grain to be exported.

Ukraine and Crimea?
 

A feint? Concentrate some effort in Crimea with ATACMS to draw off Russian resources then deploy the newly arrived F-16s en masse to achieve temporary air superiority in one of the sectors being threatened by recent Russian advances?