Berlin in 1996
 

What happens in Berlin between the 7th October 1996 and the New Year of 1997 when NATO forces reach Berlin?

Berlin was a Cold War anomaly that would have led to a number of political difficulties after the Reunification of Germany for all parties concerned. The city was politically divided into two halves after the Second World War by the victorious Allied powers. The Western half was administered by the American, British and French occupation sectors, and the eastern half was placed under Soviet administration. Even after the reconstitution of Germany in 1949 and the establishment of the rival state of East Germany, both halves of Berlin remained under allied control and were outside of German jurisdiction throughout the Cold War. The Soviet Union refused to allow West Berlin to be the new capital of West Germany, and the Allied powers (America, Britain and France) only recognised Soviet authority over East Berlin even after East Germany established its capital in East Berlin. In 1961 the city was physically divided after the Berlin Wall was built by the East German government. West Berlin was also 100 miles east of the inter-German border within East German territory. West Berlin existed as a functional city state with a shared economic, political and legal system to West Germany, but it was not de jure part of West Germany. Due to its peculiar political arrangement no German military forces (East or West) were allowed within the city boundaries of either half of Berlin.

So despite the fact that West German troops had crossed the inter-German border there would have been no East German military forces in East Berlin. After the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the East German military rapidly changes side and turns against the East German regime. The changing loyalties of the East German military is not an immediate event, but it gathers momentum throughout October 1996 and afterwards. So there would be a dwindling pool of loyal East German troops for the East German government to draw upon, and with West German panzer divisions marching through East Germany they would be needed in frontline areas and not in Berlin. Any East German move against West Berlin would have to be carried out by the various East German security forces, and most likely the Stasi. The Stasi are a para-military police force and are well armed by the standards of internal security troops, but they would still be hopelessly outmatched by the three Berlin garrison brigades with 10,000 troops and armour. There is also the West Berlin police force which was armed and trained to the same standard as West German border guards, and probably had a manpower strength of about 10,000 personnel.

Also even after the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the Soviet's cannot intervene in West Berlin. They are fighting a major war in China and other NATO allies are not actively helping the Germans, in fact some NATO members including France are loudly condemning German Reunification. Although Soviet forces in East Germany could attack and probably quickly take control of West Berlin, it would lead to war with other NATO members including the US. This is the situation until December 1996 when US, British and Canadian forces are sent across the inter-German border.

What about the cutting off of supplies into Berlin?

Yeah, Berlin Blockade Part 2. Also, it's quite possible that, due to the war in China, both Soviet and East German forces still inside East German could have been reorganized/reoriented somewhat, so that could play into the situation in and around Berlin after the Bundeswehr crosses the border.

Was the Stasi ever given nuclear discretion? Could they have/would they have conducted black ops into West Berlin and set off demolition nukes to slow NATO forces or sow chaos and fear? It definitely seems like something they'd do if they had the armaments to do so. Failing that, continued terror bombings just with conventional explosives to keep the West Berlin contingent completely off balance.

Road and rail links to West Berlin would certainly have been closed as they pass through East German territory, but maybe not the three air corridors at least until December 1996.

West Berlin was under Allied administration and basically the occupation sectors were American, British and French territories. The Potsdam Agreement established three air corridors that allowed direct flights from West Germany to West Berlin that passed through East German airspace. Only American, British and French military and commercial aircraft were allowed to use these air corridors, although the Polish airline LOT was also allowed use these air corridors on two air routes from Warsaw to London and from East Berlin to Paris. German aircraft including Lufthansa were forbidden from flying to West Berlin or any destination in East Germany, and East German aircraft were also not allowed to travel to West Germany.

Once the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border it's likely that flights were severely curtailed due to the warfare in East Germany. However I doubt that America, Britain and France will simply abandon its troops or the civil population of West Berlin, and will insist that regulated air convoys be allowed to continue to fly to West Berlin over the established air corridors at dates and times well known to the Germans and Soviets until perhaps the end of November. The Germans will obviously be happy to allow this, and as the NVA Luftstreitkrafte was quickly absorbed into the Luftwaffe it would leave very few air defence units loyal to the East German regime. What few air defence assets that East Germany retained would be under Soviet command, and the Soviets for their part would have been highly conscious of provoking NATO by shooting down a transport aircraft over East Germany when it could lead to direct NATO military support for Germany and China.

The answer would have to be no. The Soviets did not trust the East Germans enough to allow them to build an armaments industry other than allowing them to build some rifles and bullets. Giving them nuclear weapons? Nope!

Easy to harass aircraft flying through, though, radar locks, etc.

An option for the higher ranking leaders of the East German forces would be to use harassment (blamed on the Soviets) as a provocation for the West Germans to move east.

Yes very easy.

During the initial crossing of the inter-German border the NVA Luftstreitkrafte must have been in cahoots with the Bundeswehr for the operation to work. Luftwaffe transports and army helicopters also crossed the border with West German troops, and the only way they would have done so without been shot down was if the Luftstreitkrafte controlled the air defence radars on the border and concealed the data from the Soviets, or had planned in advance to jam or disable Soviet radar coverage of the inter-German border.

So if that is the case then the Luftstreitkrafte or most of it quickly changed side and was integrated into the Luftwaffe. Any loyal East German air defence units would now be under Soviet command, and if they were reckless enough to shoot down a NATO transport in one of these three air corridors the crews would likely be shot themselves by the Soviets.

After the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the East German government would become heavily reliant on its security forces to control territory and remain in power. East Germany had one of the largest state security forces in the world, including three separate para-military security organisations in addition to the regular police force.

1) Border Troops
2) Ministry of the Interior
3) Ministry for State Security (Stasi)

1) The 47,000 strong East German Border Troops (Grenztruppen) were the second largest border guard force in the Warsaw Pact after the Soviet Union. The Border Troops were organised into four commands of twenty frontier regiments, one border-crossing regiment, one artillery regiment, three helicopter flights, six training regiments and one coastal brigade. Each frontier regiment had three battalions with four companies, and also one staff company, one artillery company, one engineer company, one signal company, one service company and one transport company. The Grenztruppen were equipped as motorised infantry battalions, with armoured cars, wheeled armoured personnel carriers, mortars, machine guns, antitank weapons and some T-55 tanks. The Grenztruppen were considered East Germany's first line of defence, and its troops were mostly enlisted and were considered highly disciplined.

The four Border Troop commands included Grenzkommando Nord that guarded the northern sector of the West German border. It had six frontier regiments, two training regiments, a helicopter flight and a boat section on the Elbe River. Grenzkommando Sud guarded the southern sector of the West German border with six frontier regiments, two training regiments and a helicopter flight. Grenzkommando Kuste guarded the coast and was organised as a coastal brigade with twelve marine battalions, eight boat companies and a helicopter flight. The patrol craft and helicopters were operated by the East German Navy. Grenzkommando Mitte was stationed in East Berlin, and it manned the crossing points into West Berlin and the perimeter surrounding it. It had six frontier regiments, one artillery regiment, two training regiments, one border crossing point regiment of eight companies, and one boat company to patrol the waterways in and around West Berlin. There were also two independent frontier regiments on the border with Czechoslovakia and Poland. As the Border Troops of Grenzkommando Nord and Sud were based on the inter-German border it is likely that their commanders were pro-German Reunification, as they were responsible for opening the border and allowing the Bundeswehr to cross into East Germany. The other Border Troop units especially from Grenzkommando Mitte and the regiments on the Czech and Polish border would likely have remained loyal to the East German regime. The East German regime no doubt planned to use the forces of Grenzkommando Mitte against West Berlin.

2) The Ministry of the Interior controlled the East German police (Volkspolizei). Under its command included 8,500 Transport Police who were organised into sixteen companies of armed police, and another 15,000 troops attached to the Volkspolizei Alert Units (Bereitschaftpolizei). The Alert Units were organised into 21 battalions, with each battalion having a headquarter company, four alert companies (one mechanised and three motorised), and one support company with artillery, anti-tank guns and mortars. One alert battalion was attached to each East German district, but the key districts of Halle, Leipzig, Magdeburg and Potsdam had two battalions, and there were six battalions in East Berlin. The Ministry of the Interior also controlled Service Unit 9 (Diensteinheit IX), a covert anti-terrorist unit similar to GSG-9 that was formed in the aftermath of the Munich Massacre in 1972. Diensteinheit IX was armed with Soviet and West German weapons, and its pre-war function included hostage rescue, physical security and the hunting of Soviet Army deserters in East Germany. The Ministry of the Interior also controlled the Combat Groups of the Working Class (Kamphfgruppen der Arbeiterklasse). It was a workers militia of 500,000 members organised into 200 battalions, armed with second line equipment and it served as a home defence force in wartime. The loyalties of the Ministry of Interior troops probably depended upon their location in East Germany, and what they really thought of the East German regime once Bundeswehr panzers were sighted on the horizon.

3) East Germany's most notorious security force was operated by the Ministry for State Security (Stasi), the East German equivalent to the Soviet KGB. The Stasi was a large organisation with 90,000 employees with many functions, but its two principle roles were foreign intelligence and spying on the population of East Germany. The Stasi was in charge of the surveillance of mail and telephone lines, and ran a vast network of informants with as many as 500,000 collaborators with informants and agents in every apartment building and industrial plant. The Stasi also scrutinized the political reliability of the NVA and other East German security services, which did little to endear its popularity among the East German armed forces. The Stasi operated a secure internal communications system for the government, and had a penal system that was distinct from the Ministry of the Interior. The Stasi also controlled the Felix Dzierzynski Guard Regiment which was responsible for the protection of government and party buildings and personnel. The Felix Dzierzynski Guard Regiment was trained to the same standard as the NVA and Volkspolizei alert units, and recruits were selected from politically reliable backgrounds. The regiment had a strength of 11,000 troops and was nearly the size of a motorised rifle division, equipped with armoured vehicles, mortars, antitank weapons and antiaircraft guns. It was organised into three combat groups with six motorized rifle battalions, one artillery battalion, three training battalions, one engineer company, one support company, one medical company and one reconnaissance (parachute) company. The reconnaissance company was a commando unit equivalent to Soviet Spetsnaz forces. The Felix Dzierzynski Guard Regiment was in effect a politically reliable internal security force that could be deployed to suppress rebellion and unrest against the regime in East Germany, and as it was not part of the NVA it could be deployed in East Berlin. It has been said that the Stasi maintained a greater surveillance of its own people than any other secret police force in history, including the KGB and the Nazi Gestapo. However they did miss the well organised planning for German Reunification by senior elements of the NVA with the Bundeswehr, but during German Reunification they would have been by far the most resistant to unification.

After the Bundeswehr establishes itself in East Germany and the NVA begins to show its true loyalties, the East German government would likely pull back as many of its loyal security units to eastern districts of East Germany and allow the Soviets to fight the Bundeswehr. Most of its remaining forces would be withdrawn to loyalist strongholds including East Berlin, as if they lose control of their capital they will lose their legitimacy. So in and around Berlin the East Germans have a large Stasi force including most of the Felix Dzierzynski Guard Regiment, Grenzkommando Mitte and six battalions of Ministry of the Interior Alert Units, with some loyal NVA and militia units.

Facing them in West Berlin are the three Berlin garrison brigades of the US, British and French armies, and the West Berlin police force. The combined strength of the Berlin garrisons was 10,000 troops (4,300 US Army, 3,000 British Army and 2,700 French Army). The three Berlin brigades were basically infantry brigades, but they included mechanised units with tanks, artillery and air defence units. This force included perhaps 300 armoured vehicles such as 28 US M60A3 that were replaced by M1A1's, 18 British Chieftains'replaced by Challenger 1, and 40 French AMX-30. The US also had 9 M109 155m howitzers and all of the brigades were equipped with a large number of Dragon, TOW and Milan ATGW's. Allied air force personnel were also stationed at Gatow, Tegal and Templehof airports, with the RAF strength at Gatow reportedly standing at 700 personnel in 1991. No combat jets were based in West Berlin but there were some US and British helicopters. Once the Bundeswehr crosses the inter-German border the French protest and pull their forces out of Germany including West Berlin. This would have been a major event as France had 52,700 troops and 570 tanks stationed in Germany. The Soviets likely allowed the French to evacuate their troops and civilians through Tegal airport in the French sector of West Berlin, although they would have to leave their vehicles. Do they destroy them or give them to the US and Britain?

Usefully, yesterday at the Other Partizan wargames show I picked up Gordon L Rottman's Osprey book Fortress 69: The Berlin Wall and Intra-German Border. He gives a few details of the Grenztruppen.

Armament - 9mm Pistole M (Makarov), MPiK and MPiKM K47 and AKM), IMGK and IMGD (RPK and RPD), RP46 and sMGK (RP-46 and PK), sMG38 in AA role (DShKM38/46) and RPG7. Late issue were MPiK74N (AKS74) and RPG18.

Vehicles - Ural375D, KraZ214 and Tatra148 trucks. Trabant 601 Kubal (so low powered that on even gentle slopes passangers had to get out and walk) patrol cars. Motorradwerk Zschopau (MZ) ETZ250 and TS250/1/A motorcyles. Small numbers of helicopters (Mi2, 8 and 24). All can be identified by the bright green backing on the national badges. Tanks had been long withdrawn.

Troops in Grenztruppen Kommando Mitte (Frontier Troops Command Centre) are listed as on this picture:

Good list.

Its peculiar that the Germans under the guidance of the Soviets can produce vehicles like the Trabant 601 Kubal, yet left to their own devices they can produce the Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche and the Leopard 2 tank.

The main troop list didn't upload, I will try again later

To me what happens in Berlin is not much...

1) All of the national contingents are offered safe passage out of West Berlin once the shooting begins in Germany. This is of course, a fairly clumsy attempt to divide NATO, but it works in one sense, the French take the Soviets up on their offer, and withdraw within days. The other two national contingents bulk up the West Berlin Police (who already had a role in defending the city) as best they can, and wait for the what they think is the inevitable Soviet assault.

2) The trouble is, the Soviets only have one Motor Rifle Brigade in East Berlin, the reduction of West Berlin in case of war was to be left to the East Germans..the same East Germans who are now joining their Western brethren in killing Soviet soldiers. The 6th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade is right now just trying to hold on in it's kaserne in Karlhorst, and there isn't much help coming. Some elements of the Grenztruppen, and the KdA remain loyal to the Communist cause, and supplement the defense of Karlhorst, but there aren't many of those..and the Soviets (rightfully so) don't trust them.

Therefore, the Soviets content themselves with cutting the rail and air links to the city where they can, but the blockade is porous due to the fact they simply do not have the troops to spare to put a ring around West Berlin. Eventually, when the Poles show up, they put a ring around Berlin, and relive 6th Guards, but that respite does not last long, as the US, British and Canadians enter the war in November, and the Poles are driven back, with the 6th again under siege in Karlhorst. This time, no help comes, and after a 8 day fight, the 6th surrenders with all honors to I British Corps.

No internet at moment, using phone. I would pretty much agree with Jason on with not much happening in Berlin until December. The East Germans don't have firepower to move against West Berlin and the Soviets can't spare a couple of divisions needed to take on the garrison brigades in West Berlin, or won't. In the meantime some air supply to West Berlin and plenty of defence preparation. The Soviets also make their own preparations to capture West Berlin.

SGM Vallente GA Mills, a long-time veteran of Special Forces and a veteran of SFDB, told me that the SFDB's job if the balloon goes up was to exfiltrate out of Berlin (they had many routes in that respect) and to split into two sections. One section would begin to raise a partisan movement in East Germany, the other to begin to destroy communications hubs, dams, government and military buildings, and conduct harassing attacks against Warsaw Pact forces.

True Paul,
But up until November, we aren't a party to the conflict, we are neutral. Pro-German neutral, but neutral, so the Soviets have to be careful...hence SFDB might just exfil into the countryside with orders for a lot of SR taskings...

The Stasi.

While not directly (or even indirectly) about the topic at hand, there's a decent German movie called The Lives Of Others that illustrates the workings of the Stasi.
While not completely accurate in its portrayal of East Germany** - surprise, surprise, a movie that's not true to reality :D - it shows well enough the emotional aspects as well as repercussions of "failing the regime".



** SPOILER ALERT

For example, it would have been incredibly difficult for a Stasi officer to conceal information from superiors because Stasi personnel themselves were subject to surveillance and monitoring.

....by personnel who were under observation by agents who were being watched by snitches who....

Yep! :D
I vaguely recall some info that East Germany was the country with the highest percentage of surveillance conducted on it's own citizens. I believe that Stasi officers and their official assistants numbered about 2% of the population giving a figure of about one Stasi operative for every 60 people.

There's also a 2015 article from Spiegel Online that infers that the "citizen helpers" (i.e. those who were not officially employed by the Stasi), informing on their work colleagues, neighbours, family, friends etc. etc. numbered well over two million people, (and that doesn't include the West Berliners who informed on East Berliners). Two million people out of a population of 16 million meaning about 12% of the population informed on the rest of the populace.

And they weren't all motivated by politics, it's well worth a read.
Article here

That's kind of why I think if anything...the Stasi HAD to be in on the coup..now, that said..there might have been a falling out between them and the Army later..but, initially, the Stasi had to be in on it, or any coup was doomed to fail.

I am inclined to agree with you Jason. The Stasi had a massive apparatus in place to collect information, I just can't imagine them missing something like the coup.
Whether it was a case of high ranking Stasi telling the lower ranks to "just go along with it" or whether the lower ranks performed their own coup and kept the higher ranks uninformed could make for a whole other discussion but regardless of who played what part, as mentioned, I cannot see the Stasi not knowing something about the coup and taking some part (either by participation or by not actively opposing it).

Gordon L Rottman to this as he was tasked with it. Apparantly the hardest part was getting out of West Berlin.

Also of note is the fact that Berliners were not subject to conscription as West Berlin was demilitarised.

An alternative may be a vast disinformation campaign so the truth was hidden following Churchill's maxim

Here are some possible explanations for the Stasi's inability to detect the "invasion", or convince the Soviets that it's coming.

1. They've shifted focus to the Far East. Perhaps the Stasi that count have been reassigned to monitor the Chinese diplomatic corps in Europe. It would be quite a stretch for them, as I'm sure language would be a barrier. A good chunk of the KGB and GRU would also have shifted their focus to the situation in the Far East.

2. The Soviets don't believe Stasi reports of an impending W. German invasion. Perhaps they believe that the Stasi is simply acting in concert with the civilian gov't of the DDR to forestall sending yet more NVA units to China. Canon's pretty clear that WARPACT governments are not happy with repeated requests for more military manpower. Perhaps the Soviets see reports of a coming West German invasion as a foot-dragging technique to avoid making more "contributions" to the fighting in the Far East.

3. Key Stasi have been turned by Western Intelligence. Perhaps they're contradicting or burying reports of the impending invasion. Disinformation spread via double-agents would also contribute to #2.

A combination of all of the above scenarios is the most plausible explanation for why the Soviets are caught flat-footed, IMO.

I don't buy the idea of an air corridor to W. Berlin remaining open after fighting kicks off between the Bundeswehr and the GoSFiG. The fog-of-war would be so thick, you could cut it with a knife, and "accidents" would be unavoidable- inevitable even. Both sides would know this. I imagine W. Berlin would be placed in a de-facto stage of siege as soon as Bundeswehr forces cross the border into the DDR. Sure, the Soviet Union wouldn't be keen on provoking the rest of NATO into joining the fight, but I just don't see them being willing to allow air traffic from the West unimpeded access to East German territory. The Soviets would be too rattled- paranoia isn't paranoia when the fear is substantiated- by the clear and present danger of losing its western buffer to an aggressive, potentially united Germany (1941, anyone?). Sure, they'd warn off the West in the most unambiguous of terms and, unlike 1948, I think they'd back their threats with deadly force (the Soviets didn't have an operational nuclear deterrent in '48; in '96, they would, and it would be massive). The Stavka would remember Stalin's mistake of writing off reports that Barbarossa was underway, and instructing border troops not to fight back in fear of "provoking" Hitler. I think a hard-line, military backed Politburo would draw a line in the sand, and prepare for the worst. With a war well underway in the Far East and a war flaring up in central Europe, the Soviets would not be willing to show weakness.

I read somewhere (I think in a 2300AD article) that rumours about the Germans planning a reunification were known to Western intelligence agencies well in advance of the event. But nobody took it seriously and no evidence ever surfaced to implicate the Germans. Turning back the clock to this period and the idea that the Germans would unilaterally unite by themselves under the noses of NATO and the Warsaw Pact would be considered preposterous. It seems the diversion of the warfare in China and other international Super-Power tension gave them the chance to do it.

I agree somewhat with you. The Politburo is backed into a corner, but it is one of their own making..and they need to find a way out. I am sure there was already multiple feelers sent out to semi-sympathetic Western nations (Italy and Greece come to mind) to mediate a end to the fighting in China before the '96 offensive. By the time October 1996 rolls around, the Soviets are in a corner. But they aren't dumb.

One, they cannot simply nuke somebody into compliance, NATO has the means to retaliate, swiftly, and it would paradoxically, demonstrate they are now conventionally speaking, weak on the ground.

Two, as much as some elements in the Politburo want to show the West that the Bear still has his claws, there are others who want to get the hell off the tiger they now find themselves on. Thus, a flurry of contradictory orders are going to come out of the Defense Council from Moscow..blockade Berlin, don't blockade Berlin..hell GSFG might get ten different orders on that in a day, and now that it's short an entire Combined Arms Army, as well as significant air assets? Might not be the time to pick a fight with NATO. I don't think the Soviets would go much further than '48 for that reason. Might there be an incident or two? Yes. But they are going to be very careful about that. Suppose the Soviets shoot down an American C-141 leaving Templehof with American military dependents on board because they wanted to make a point? That will not go over well, and the Soviets strike me as pragmatists. Don't buy more trouble when you have enough already is probably the predominant thinking in the Kremlin.

Three, I would state 3 is the most likely thing. It would make the most sense and explains how the Stasi are "in" on the coup. Now, granted, the West Germans and the East German army do not trust them at all, and I am sure more than a few are later liquidated, but that said, the fact remains..the Stasi was ever present in East Germany, for the East German army to have simply remained in barracks when the Bundeswehr came calling? That suggests preparation and coordination of some sort, at the highest levels for it to be army-wide. No way the Stasi would not get wind of that. Unless somebody in the Stasi buried it.

Four, considering the plans and responsibility for reducing West Berlin in case of war was primarily a job for the East Germans, and the East Germans have now thrown in their lot with the enemy, where are the Soviets going to get the troops to throw up a proper cordon around West Berlin? The Soviets need every soldier they have to hold off the Bundeswehr. Maybe when the Poles and Czechs show up, they can take that responsibility, but that will take time.

I wouldn't be proposing open air corridor to West Berlin, just the likely possibility that the US, Britain and France will insist that aid and supplies be allowed to their troops and civilian in West Berlin, and the civilian population of West Berlin on certain dates and times. The Germans are not going to interfere and there is no East German air force left to speak of, so the problem will be the Soviets.

Looking at the Soviet position. They are fighting a costly war in China against five million plus Chinese troops who are now being armed by the West and causing all sorts of problems for the Soviet military and logistics chain. Closer to home in Europe they are no fighting the potentially more dangerous one million plus German army who is better armed and trained than their own army. Shoot down a USAF or RAF transport plane carrying supplies or evacuating civilians from West Berlin, and there is a strong possibility that the Soviets will soon be also fighting another couple of million Western troops in Europe, backed by 20,000 tanks, 5,000 combat aircraft and a few thousand nuclear weapons.

I see this as more likely:

The Soviets offer to evac Western personnel from W. Berlin- civilian and military. They also announce that anyone who elects to stay behind is taking his/her life into their own hands, as the Soviets cannot/will not acknowledge responsibility for their well-being. They also offer to provide basic humanitarian supplies (food, water, medical) to those who elect to remain, but they make it clear that the "roads" to Berlin are closed.

Y'all make some good points about just how dire the straits the Soviets are in and I agree that the Soviets don't want the rest of NATO to join in on the fun at the frontier. I just don't see the Soviets allowing Western traffic through an active war-zone during a full-blown shooting war. I'm hard pressed to come up with another example of "neutrals" being allowed safe passage through an active war-zone during a modern war. Was the Suez canal open during the 6-Day War or Yom Kippur wars? Look what happened to that Malayan airliner over Ukraine a couple of years ago- and that was through a designated "safe" air corridor over a "low intensity" conflict zone!

And who are we kidding? With the West actively supporting the Chinese in their war against the USSR, there are no neutrals, really. The Soviets would already be pissed about that and I'm sure there would already have been incidents where Western-flagged merchantmen on their way to China had been sunk by Red Fleet commerce raiders. Tension would already be incredibly high. I just don't see a riled up, backed-into-a-corner Stavka/Politburo being OK with U.S./British/French aircraft flying across the contested frontier and landing in Berlin. What if "relief" flights actually include reinforcements? That paranoia would be there.

And would the West be willing to push an aggressively pro-W. Germany agenda in Europe? It's brinksmanship all around. If the West insists on supplying W. Berlin, it's provocative. If the Soviets declare a land/air blockade, it's provocative. The Soviets have an incentive to de-escalate but we also know that the rest of NATO is extremely reluctant to go to war on behalf of W. Germany. I mean, some of NATO quits over this. Is the U.S., as the helmsman of NATO, going to push an action that could lead to an escalation? I guess it all depends on whether the gov't. is hawkish or not. From canon, it's hard to tell. But canon seems to suggest that the Soviet gov't. is quite hawkish. Does that change between '95 and forced reunification?

And, as a fait accompli, we know from canon that the Soviets were willing to use nukes, and use them first, on both fronts. Therefore, I don't think it's outlandish that the Soviets draw that proverbial line in the sand. You shall not pass! (into W. Berlin).

My best friend from high school was in the Berlin Brigade, '88-92. He told me the Berlin police were curiously heavily armed, having rifles and AT weapons, almost like light infantry.

On top of that, West Germany had 3 airborne brigades. If one is fighting defensively, what good are those? Fighting in an urban area behind enemy lines, that's more like their style. No idea if that was true, but that's what this wargamer often did. FWIW, I almost always bypassed West Berlin when I played the Pact, leaving the ugly fighting to the Polish armies coming up on mid-game turns.

So, yeah, I agree that the Stasi had to have been in on the unification; the Soviets in and around Berlin had much bigger fish to fry when the West Germans crossed the border and the East Germans flipped sides. I'd have to check, but wouldn't the SGFG now be outnumbered?

West Berlin is under Allied administration not German, and no NATO power is helping the Germans in East Germany and in fact many are condemning it including France. Also the Soviets are assisting their ally East Germany in resisting a West German invasion, not a NATO invasion. The Allied garrison in West Berlin is separate from West German forces. If they do the above which is to all intensive purpose an ultimatum to evacuate West Berlin or else, then the US and the rest of NATO (which means Britain, Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Turkey), but also France will support Germany and send their forces into East Germany.

The situation of Berlin in 1996 is unique, but there are other examples of flights into war zones or through hostile territory. The original Berlin Airlift itself in 1948. Operation Frequent Wind which evacuated Americans and South Vietnamese from Saigon, the evacuation of one million Portuguese from Angola and Mozambique in the 1970's, and the 1990 airlift of 110,000 Indians from Kuwait City during the First Gulf War. The political and strategic position of Berlin in German Reunification is obviously quite different to those airlifts, but West Berlin is under the administration of three nuclear powers who if they intervene on the side of Germany will radically change the Soviets defence position for the worst. The Soviets quite frankly do not have the resources and manpower to take on so many powerful countries in Europe and also fight a war in China. The Soviet Union would be reckless in the extreme to provoke the US, Britain and France by issuing ultimatums.

The West is not pushing a pro-West German agenda in Europe, they like the Soviets are shell shocked by events in Germany. But its also quite clear that German Reunification is not solely a West German affair as the East Germans are also in on it. So we have a situation from October until the beginning of December were the both NATO and the Soviet Union are trying to contain the issue of German reunification without being dragged into a general war in Central Europe over it. But its also clear that their are divisions within Germany, NATO and the Warsaw Pact strategy. All sides seem to want to avoid a war in Central Europe, but certain actions by all concerned indicate that some do not want to compromise and want a war.

NATO continues to defend West German territory and airspace despite the Germans fighting the Soviets in East Germany, and by November they start to shoot down incoming Soviet raids on West German territory. In November the Soviets send the Czech and Polish armies into East Germany which will rub NATO's nose in it as half of NATO's members don't want to get involved. Then the Luftwaffe starts to attack Warsaw Pact bases in Poland, and the Soviets invade northern Norway to divert NATO's attention from Germany. By December the US, Britain, Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Turkey support Germany, but Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain declare their neutrality and France and Belgium pull out of NATO (the Atlantic Alliance in France's case). Romania also refuses to support the Warsaw Pact military operations in Europe leading to an invasion by the Soviets, Bulgarians and Hungarians. Turkey then invades Bulgaria and starts fighting the Greeks, and neutral but communist Yugoslavia supports Romania. At the end of the year the Soviets pull off another master stroke and launch and invasion of Iran!!!

Strategies all over the place and reckless to the extreme. But in regards to West Berlin some aid flights into early November before it all starts going to hell and then nothing until NATO takes Berlin at the end of December.

They didn't use nukes until the late summer of 1997, and that was firstly in China when the could see the writing was on the wall.

Do you think the West Berlin police were expecting something?


The problem with German paratroops being dropped into Berlin would be that the airspace over East Germany was dominated by the Soviet Air Force and the German paratroops probably would not have reached the city. The Luftwaffe at this particular time used older and inferior fighter jets to the Soviet Air Force. The Eurofighter Typhoon hadn't yet entered service so the Germans would be using mainly F-4's and Mig-21's.

The issue of the Stasi may need another thread. The Stasi were redder than the KGB and were used by them as they were so effective at doing their job.

1948 didn't involve any shooting. The other examples that you cited (barring Kuwait) are mismatches where the forces controlling the ground were unable to significantly impede operations; those mounting the evacuations had air superiority (or supremacy even). Neither of those caveats would apply in East Germany, c. '95.

Quite right. I don't contest the validity of these points, I just disagree about how the Soviets would approach the situation.


A very valid point. In fact, this argument swayed me a little.

And this is what I was contending in my previous post. The more hawkish elements in the Soviet high command would likely oppose any airlift or resupply missions, fearing such operations were actually Trojan Horse-style ruses to reinforce the W. Berlin garrison or facilitate the W. German offensive in E. Germany.

Right. So if NATO is willing to shoot down Soviet combat aircraft over W. Germany, the Soviets wouldn't respond in kind? That's a really big reach, in my opinion.

I agree that the Soviets wouldn't want to provoke the rest of NATO into joining the fracas, but would they be willing to project weakness by allowing NATO aircraft to operate over E. Germany? What's the realpolitik response? Once again, it depends on leadership. If you see the Soviets as cautious, prudent, and pragmatic, then I guess it makes sense for them to allow NATO continued access to W. Berlin. I see the Soviets taking the opposite tack, though, trying to convey strength and resolve. It's essentially a game of double-bluff.

In my T2KU, the Soviets were tired of losing these tests of will- Berlin '48, the October Crisis (what we call the Cuban Missile Crisis). In fact, as I see it, the hawks in the Politburo are arguing that it's precisely the Soviet responses to those past crises that have emboldened the W. Germans, and that further displays of weakness will only worsen the situation.

I know this, and actually I think canon says that they used them in Europe first, albeit sparingly, then far more liberally in China. I could be wrong, though (I'm on my 30 min lunch break at work and can't access my rulebook). Either way, the Soviets were willing to use tac-nukes. "When" does matter, but they clearly had the will. It's the difference between pointing a gun at someone and actually pulling the trigger. The Soviets pulled the trigger first, so to speak. They had the will, as well as the way. That suggests to me a mindset where defeat/surrender were not an option- a more hawkish mindset, if you will.

I think that you're presupposing a very rational Soviet leadership. I see quite a bit of evidence in canon that the Soviet gov't. and military were not thinking or acting in a particularly rational way (launching a full scale invasion of China, for example). Given that, my views on Berlin make sense.

I respect your opinions- they're rational and well-supported- and I'm not trying to impose mine on anyone. That said, I wouldn't argue this if I didn't think that my POV was justified by the available evidence. I'm totally cool with continuing a cordial, respectful debate here, and I'm equally cool with just agreeing to disagree.

The Soviets did everything in their power to prevent the Berlin Airlift from succeeding in 1948. No shooting but plenty of harassment, including buzzing the transports, obstructive parachute jumps within the air corridors, and shining searchlights to dazzle pilots at night. Also reportedly flak, air-to-air fire, rocketing, bombing, and explosions. But no shooting!!!

But the political situation of Berlin is unique I think, no real parallel to compare with in history but also nowhere else in the world were the stakes are so high. During Operation Frequent Wind the North Vietnamese could certainly have caused a lot of trouble for the US evacuating Saigon. Maybe the situation in Guantanamo Bay in Cuba could be similar, surrounded by hostile Cuba but America still keeps its base and dares Cuba to stop it from maintaining it.

This would have also have been the Soviet position about West Berlin in 1948 and now its 1996! Also there is only so much that you can transport by air into West Berlin, you wont be able to sneak in an armoured division under the noses of the Soviets. In fact there is not even any airforce in the city other than a few helicopters.

They did respond, they invaded Norway!

Strictly speaking its not NATO aircraft, its aircraft of the Western Allies of WW2 who were once Soviet allies. And we are not talking about combat aircraft, we are talking about transports or more likely commercial airliners.

They acted though and tried to convey strength and resolve by invading China. How did that work out for them?

Yet the Soviet Army never crossed the inter-German border into West Germany. In fact it is NATO who crosses into East Germany in December and starts a full scale war in Central Europe.

I though it was in China first and then used in Poland against NATO. Not quite sure at this moment, as I haven't gone through the books and looked it up.

No bother.

Exactly. It kind of proves my point by refuting your assertions that the Soviets would have gone to great lengths to avoid a war with NATO. Attacking a NATO nation not already involved in the war in Germany would be the ultimate provocation.

IIRC, Soviet Spetsnaz used civie airliners during their coup-de-main in Kabul, 1979. Just because it's a United 747 doesn't mean it can't be full of troops.

Granted, not so well. But there's plenty of historical precedence for governments reinforcing failure, or making the same mistakes multiple times. Hitler, a most infamous example, was a master of both.

That's a bit of a straw man argument because I've never suggested that the Soviets would attempt to cross the inter-German border.

"On July 9th, with advanced elements of 1st German army on Soviet soil, the Red Army began using tactical nuclear weapons." (page 25 of the v1 Referee's Manual)

Han shot first.

Well if was specifically to distract NATO's attention away from Central Europe.

"In late 1996, the Soviets moved against northern Norway in an attempt to score a quick victory and draw some of NATO's attention away from central Europe." (Page 11, Boomer)

So the Soviet hawks get their way to an extent, but saner elements also prevail by diverting it to NATO's northern flank and avoiding an all out war with NATO in Central Europe which they can't win.

That is a good example, but its also an example of how the Soviets prepared for a surprise invasion of Afghanistan. West Berlin would hardly be a surprise to anyone. There are already 10,000 Western troops in West Berlin they have been there since the late 1940's, and the composition of the Berlin garrisons have hardly changed in all of those 50 years.

If the Soviets can't defeat an unprepared China after a year of bludgeoning them across Manchuria and northern China, how are they going to defeat a better prepared and far better armed NATO in Central Europe the following year?

If the Soviets are going to preserve the state of East Germany and stop German Reunification they are going to have to defeat the Bundeswehr, and that will mean pushing it back into West Germany and crossing the inter-German border.

The use of tactical nuclear devices began in July. In the east they were used on a massive scale, first against Chinese military columns and then against Chinese industrial centers. In the west, they were limited at first to tactical attacks against front-line units. (Page 11 of Boomer)

Some ambiguity, but the implication is that China got wacked first.

Attacking a NATO nation doesn't avoid an all out war with NATO. It simply moves the focal point away from Central Europe. It doesn't mean that NATO won't also add its strength to the fighting in E. Germany. In fact, it does, starting with U.S. and British forces.

I agree that it's foolish, but that was my point. Nations sometimes do foolish things in war. This particular argument is becoming rather circular. I point out that nations don't always behave rationally and you give another example of how the Soviets don't act rationally. Yes.

No, they don't. They just have to force W. Germany to the negotiating table.

I agree that it's ambiguous, but I think it's more clearly implied that it starts in Europe, since that's the first theater mentioned (in the quote I posted). If it started in China, why wasn't that the first theater mentioned? German forces setting foot on Soviet soil is clearly the trigger for the nuclear option. Why would the Soviets use nukes in China first when the existential threat is in West?

I like debate, but this is starting to seem like arguing for argument's sake. I clearly can't persuade you to accept my ideas, and I've not been swayed by yours. I guess at this point, we're just going to have to agree to disagree. In your T2KU, the Soviets allow Western access to W. Berlin after the W. German invasion. In mine, they don't.

NATO has no forces in East Germany (excluding West Berlin) until December 1996.

There are a lot of things about Twilight 2000 that are irrational!


They will have to defeat them which means pushing them back into West Germany to do that.

Alright Raellus.

This was a great series of posts. Lots of food for thought and rational explanations. Kudos to all. Keep it up.

Personally I would probably roll a d100 with 1 being the Soviets taking the most hardline position possible and 100 showing the Soviets being as passive and interested in detente as possible. With the middle ground pulling aspects from both sides of the discussion.

Same could be done for the Stasi. 01 having them as the instigators and complicit at every level and 100 having them be totally clueless. The middle ground would be interesting in how far up or down the chain the information goes.

As always something with a bell curve might be a better fit that a d100, but the simplicity of a single number often give me clarity on motivations.

So its now December 6th 1996 and the gloves are off.

NATO sends 9 American divisions, 3 British divisions, 1 Canadian brigade and a host of armoured cavalry regiments rolling across the inter-German border, backed by the airpower of two NATO' tactical airforce's to help out the Bundeswehr in East Germany. Following up in the rear will be at least another dozen NATO divisions, multiple regiments and 50 plus combat squadrons on their way.

Despite the sound advice of Field Marshal Raellus (a recipient of the Order of Lenin and Knights Cross of the Iron Cross with Golden Oak Leaves, Swords and Diamonds), more timid voices in the Kremlin decided not to cut off the Western garrisons in West Berlin and provoke NATO. In hind sight Field Marshal Raellus may have been right, as the Soviet's have their hands full, and eliminating NATO forces in West Berlin is now a less pressing priority. The Soviets however can't rely on the loyalist East German forces to take control of West Berlin, as over 90% of the NVA has changed sides and the Stasi and other security forces do not have the firepower to take on regular US and British troops.

With NATO on the march across East Germany the city of Berlin is an obvious target for them. Unless the NATO garrisons in West Berlin are eliminated and the Soviets and Warsaw Pact allies can entrench themselves in Berlin and establish powerful defences, the city will probably fall to NATO by Christmas. If the symbolic capital of Germany falls to NATO the Soviets are going to face the dilemma of not being able to defend its most important Warsaw Pact ally despite the size of its forces based in East Germany. Also Berlin is only a stone throw from the Oder-Neiss Line and Czechoslovakia and Poland, and if Berlin falls the other Warsaw Pact states are going to question the commitment and capability of the Soviet Union to defend them from NATO.

So how will the Soviets try and eliminate the Western garrisons in West Berlin in December before NATO forces are upon them?