Twilight Today or Twilight 2009 if you will...
 

Looking at the global political s(h)ituation today, I can't help but think that there are many plausible scenarios that easily could escalate into full-blown war.

IRAN
Pakistan
North Korea
Global Terrorism
Shortage of drinking water in 3rd. world contries


If there are any others I forgot just mention it in answers..

Your thoughts...

One of my favorite topics! Here is something for the thread title :D

When i get a chance i'll post a real response... but at the moment my head isnt to clear (had to take my pain meds, and they leave me kind of out of it).

http://www.digifruit.com/aimi/nateha...T2009-Logo.jpg

The key to a full-blown T2K+9 scenario is how to get the Russians involved. The problem with the Global Terrorism scenario is that all of the developed world is on one side and no one is really on the other. The Russians don’t like Radical Islam any more than we do so the Terrorism thing may kick off a great Merc 2009 timeline, but not a full end of the world scenario.

Iran just isn’t a big enough threat either. They are a powerhouse regionally, but it’s another area where everyone who can end the world agrees. If Iran starts lobbing nukes at Israel it would lead to a huge Regional conflict, but I can’t see the Russians threatening global war over the territorial integrity of Iran. They would be as happy as we would be to see “regime change” there.

Pakistan combined with Global Terror could lead to a regional war with India, but both the U.S. and Russia are strong supporters of India and I doubt Pakistan could get very far without U.S. support. If a radical Islamic revolution swept Pakistan we would probably just bolster India and use India as a proxy against Pakistan. The only support Pakistan would receive may come from the PRC, but I doubt the Chinese would support a destabilizing government in Pakistan. Besides, the U.S. has enough influence with the PRC to get them to back of their support for Pakistan if we found it in our national interest to do so.

North Korea, everyone hates these guys. Say there is a PRK invasion of the ROK and the U.S. gets involved. With our relations with the PRC it’s beyond a reasonable suspension of disbelief to think the Chinese would aid the PRK. It is much more likely that they would assist us in defeating the PRK and expanding the ROK to cover the whole peninsula. The thing is, the big 3 are all conservative powers which like things pretty much how they are going and no one wants to rock the boat.

To get a real T2K+9 scenario going we would need to see some kind of radical change in the governments of the U.S., Russia or PRC. Maybe a big right shift in Europe could do it, but I doubt that who the Danes elect will have an impact on WWIII.

If you think about it, we are living in the MERC 2000 world now, there are plenty of world hotspots but it’s more of a stretch than ever to figure a path to the 3rd World War. That’s a good thing (obviously), but it does make crafting a T2K+9 scenario difficult.

When I think of any potential future flashpoints, I can't help but think of last year's Georgia - Russia conflict as an example of a localised conflict that potentially could have spread, particularly if NATO extends membership to Georgia or Ukraine at some point in the future.

Or how about the PRC making a move on Taiwan? Or the Spratly Islands? The Spratlys might not be worth starting WW3 over, but I'd have thought a Chinese move on Taiwan might provoke a US response, which could cause an escalation of the conflict.

I am working on a timeline that will get the Russians involved and their response to a massive terrorist attack on their territory. Basic premise is that the Somalian pirates hijacked a ship containing nuclear waste material and sold it to major terrorist groups around the world. Imagine if the Georgian rebels exploded a barrel or two during let say... May Day celebrations in Moscow - The Russians would crush Georgia, and then roll into the rest of the old eastern bloc countries, NATO would intervene, and WW3 starts.

Now let say at the same time dirty bombs also went off in Washington or New York...

Here is an idea...

Make the causes of the war have MULTIPLE reasons... Such as.

The collapse of the European Union, plunges Europe into a warzone...

Multiple major terrorists attacks using weapons of mass destruction (provided by rogue nations like North Korea and Syria).

Chinese and Mexican 5th Columnists in the USA causing major unrest and 'terror' attacks...

And don't forget those hostile Canadians invading from the North! We burnt the White House once... just don't push us!!!

If I wasn't trying to avoid politics, I'd ask if ya'll would do it again. PUSH! PUSH!

An invasion of DC would disrupt the DC working group so I have to state my objections to it.

Don't worry... I hear that the plan they have for the attack inculdes the evacuation of the members of the DC working group, their families and loved ones.

I think if the DC working group gave peace offerings of Large Double Doubles and Beer... the unruly mob of canucks might let you go.

that's not as fun as watching a group of canuck commandos showing up to spirit the DC working group away, and putting them in a place where all they can do is work on T2K universe stuff!

This is so true! A good appreciation, IMO.

Oh...I thought you renamed it to the black house........just kidding

I love the idea of the canucks invading DC:D .

However, I can see two more starting point for T2K+9.

First, the collapse of the EU with tensions quickly rising among its former members. However, I'm not sure to know how this could evolve.

Then, a fourth french revolution (1789, 1830, 1848, 2009) that brings some kind of extremist to the head of France (after all we invented communism). I'm not saying that France will have a revolution any time soon, but I would consider the risk to be real at the moment. I can imagine several ways for a new french revolution to become a reality and, with the french, you know where it starts but you never know where it ends. In 1789 the casualties finally reached several millions as the result of an almost world war (The Napoleonic wars involving all European nations, Egypt, Russia and the USA).

ah,the French..
 

They do go all out dont they.

Ssssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...be warned...the last time they had a short of height, self-centered and eagerly of grandeur leader with an elegant wife they decided to invade us and we were forced to invent the term "guerrilla"... ;)

Just kidding, of course. :D

Actually both remaried too.:D