A bit of history (1993-1995)
1993
In his inaugural address, President Clinton declares that "Our democracy must be not only the envy of the world but the engine of our own renewal. There is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right with America." Then, shortly after taking office, the US president turns most of its attention toward internal matters. Changes are made to the US health care policy, gay rights are improved and a strong support is given to NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in order to have it ratified by congress.
On the international scene, less political attention is given by US administration to what is happening in Russia and in the Balkans. Nevertheless, military expenditures are maintained and several ships that should have been put out of commission are put in reserve instead.
Similar actions are taken among many countries in the West. France increases the number of active units among its military branches and accelerates the work on several military programs. Germany keeps reorganizing its forces and the Soviet equipments refitting program is extended. Else, in countries such as Sweden and United Kingdom, equipments that were to be scrapped are put in storage. However, the German economy shows some signs of slow exhaustion, especially in the East, and radical right wing political organizations swell in membership while violence against foreign workers and handicapped Germans escalates. Germany's government responds weakly, choosing to compromise with the right, and passes a strict series of immigration laws which are widely compared to the Nazi "race laws" of the 1930s. Italy, on the other hand, does not engage in any military program as it is still shaken by political scandals and instability. More politicians resign from office and the political crisis is accompanied by increasing economical problems.
In the meantime, the neo-communist government of Russia also rebuilds the army and a heavy modernization plan is enforced. Surprisingly, the population seems to be widely supporting this despite some obvious problems. The explanation lay in one of the first measure taken by the new government: army units are dispatched to monitor several production plants and the transportation network. As a result, despite the strain on the country, the population doesn’t suffer from privation and, in fact, the access to industrialized goods improves. Tensions continue with Belarus and Ukraine as Moscow still refuses to recognize their independence but no aggressive action is taken by either side. However, the Nagorno-Karabakh War, a continuing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, is still very active and marked by a number of successes on the side of Armenia. As a consequence, Azerbaijan president Abülfaz Elçibay is overthrown by a military coup in early summer and the former leader of Soviet Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliyev rise to power.
Fighting continues in the former republics of Yugoslavia and becomes increasingly bitter. There is now no talk of reunifying the country; instead ethnic groups fight bitterly for as large a slice of territory as possible. Local militia deal ruthlessly with the people of other ethnic groups living in their regions and massacres are numerous from all sides.
Outside Europe several event are also marking this year bringing both hope and fear. Concerns are expressed toward Iraq and North Korea. The first is hit several times by tomahawks: in January, when it deploys troops near Kuwait and, in June, after an alleged assassination attempt on former US president George Bush. The second benefits from an increasing support from Moscow and, toward mid-summer, Pyongyang withdraw from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. However, hope is carried by China and Israel. Jiang Zemin the new Chinese president engages more economical reforms and the path toward market economy accelerates. Then, in September, PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shake hands in Washington D.C., after signing a peace accord. For the first time, the world can dream of an issue to the conflict in that part of the world.
Finally, the continent that seems to experience the most important changes is Africa. After a referendum, held in April, Eritrea gains independence from Ethiopia and power is assumed by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), a Marxist political party. US distrust that government from the beginning and the authorities of Eritrea turns toward Russia for help and support, opening again the harbour facilities at Masawa to the Warsaw Pact.
Fighting resume in Angola between the UNITA and the governmental forces (MPLA) but this takes a very different direction as the now democratic government is supported by the West. Jonas Sawimbi, leader of the UNITA, faces difficulties as he is cut from his former support but, true to his word ( "I am not communist because it serves no purpose. Nor am I a capitalist. Socialism in this country is the only answer.”), turns to Russia for supply.
In October, Burundi enters a civil war when democratically elected Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye, is assassinated by Tutsi extremists and violence breaks out between the two groups. On the same month, a raid on Mogadishu ends with the death of 18 US soldiers and over 1000 somalis.
In South Africa, Chris Hani, an anti-apartheid, activist is assassinated. The murderer escapes but is found dead on the next day. Investigation progress slowly, riots are taking place throughout the country and F.W. De Klerk is increasingly criticized. De Klerk is forced out of office and new elections are organized. The widespread violence that followed hani’s assassination worried the white minority and Ferdinand Hartzenberg, leader of the Konserwatiewe Party van Suid-Afrika, is elected. The ANC is banned, Nelson Mandela is arrested again and, before year’s end, this brings an end to the process that could have led to the end of Apartheid. In addition, the new president declares that South Africa will pursue it’s nuclear porgram.
1994
As the Neo-Cold War shows no sign of heating down, Europe experiences a number of changes. Germany keeps increasing its force structure and divisions that had been kept under strength are brought up to full strength while territorial (reserve) brigade are created. Voters in Finland, Norway and Sweden refuse to join with the newly constituted European Union. In the May elections, the Hungarian Socialist Party led by former Communists win absolute majority in the parliament and Hungary’s first move is to join Warsaw Pact 2, making Hungary the fifth country outside former Soviet borders to join that military alliance. Following this new adhesion to the Warsaw Pact, Moldavia grows worry and, in October, renounces its independence, becoming part of Romania. In Italy, Democrazia Cristiana is dissolved and a coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi is brought to power. It is known as Polo delle Libert* and composed of Lega Nord, National Alliance, Christian Democratic Centre and Union of the Centre. It brings a lot of hope among the population but this is short lived as the government fall when the Lega Nord leaves the coalition in December.
Closer to Russia itself, a ceasefire is reached on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan losing 16% of its territory. Then, President Aliyev, aware of Azerbaijan weakness, joins the R.U.S.S. A few weeks later, in July, the politically unknown Alexander Lukashenko is elected as president of Belarus with 80% of the expressed votes and the republic joins also with the R.U.S.S, putting an end to almost three years of tensions with Russia. From then, a majority of the former Soviet Republics are united again and the only unsettled dispute is that between Russia and Ukraine. Finally, before the end of the year, a war starts in Chechnya and the Russian army is sent to crush the insurgents.
Middle-East is also the location of several events, starting with a civil war that shakes Yemen between April and October. In late April, fighting breaks out near San’a and, on May 21, southern leaders declare secession and establish the Democratic Republic of Yemen under the leadership of Haidar Abu Bakr al-Attas. All members in Warsaw Pact 2 recognize the new republic and send supplies. Surprisingly enough, Saudi Arabia, feeling threaten by the reunification of Yemen, support the secessionists and send them large amount of money. Bitter fighting continue for several months until a peace is signed in the Jordan capital of Amman. Yemen is back to the situation that was its before the reunification: The Republic of Yemen rules over the north with its capital at San’a while the Democratic Republic of Yemen rules in the South with its capital at Aden.
Soon after, the beginning of the civil war in Yemen, another civil war breaks out between Kurdish factions in Iraki Kurdistan. Massoud Barzani's Kurdish Democratic Party, backed by Iran, launches an attack on Jalal Talabani's Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. As a result, by year’s end, 2000 people had been killed on both sides.
In July, as most of the world is looking at Kurdistan and Yemen, Israel and Jordan sign the Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace, which formally ends the state of war that has existed between the nations since 1948, providing a point of stability in the region.
In Asia, relations between Russia and China continue to improve slightly and both countries agree to de-target their nuclear weapons against each other.
South Africa reasserts its control over Walvis Bay. Tensions are high but the leading party of Namibia (SWAPO) is reluctant to take action despite support from Russia and renounces its claim on the town. Almost at the same time, US troops are withdrawn from Somalia. Another important event takes place in Africa when, in April, both the Rwandan president and Burundi president die when a missile shot down their plane. That attack triggers what is to become the Rwandan Genocide.
All over this year, the entire American continent appears as the most stable area of the world outside what happens in Chiapas. On January 1, riots are starting in the separatist region of Chiapas (Mexico) and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, led by Commander Marcos, backed by Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, start a guerrilla war against the government in Mexico.
1995
In January 1, Austria is the only country to join the European Union while Germany’s more right oriented government starts to back the Sudetendeutsche Landsmannschaft (Sudeten German Homeland Association) in its claim toward the Czech Republic. This claim is relatively moderate as it calls only for the complete revocation of the Beneš decrees which established the expulsion of Germans from Czekoslovakia after the war. Nevertheless, this brings worries among the Czech population and the Czech government withdraws from the EU adhesion process. In the Balkan, the Croats finally achieve complete victory while fightings continue in Bosnia and herzegovina. At last, on December 14, the Dayton Peace Agreement is signed in Paris and the conflict is brought to its end. Croatia is recognized by Serbia while the Republka Srpska is recognized as one of two main political-territorial divisions of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
A major event, then, takes place in Asia and is known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. This starts when Taiwan president Lee Teng-hui makes a speech, at Cornell, arguing in favor of Taiwan Independence. The PRC is furious with that declaration and launches several military exercises off the coast of Taiwan. These continue all year long up into 1996.
In Africa, the UN peacekeeping mission in Somalia ends in March and Somalia definitely enters a period of chaos. The situation worsens in South Africa where ethnic unrest has grown since the revival of Apartheid. This time it turns to open violence and, while the West officially condemn the repression, several governments secretly back Hartzenberg’s government.
Nevertheless, it’s in the Middle-East that the most striking events take place and the first one concerns Iraq. In January, the CIA manages to negotiate a truce between Kurdish factions and makes contact with Iraqi officers planning an assassination of Saddam Hussein. Plans are made to link this assassination to a Kurdish offensive toward Northern Iraq. This is carried out in early March and Saddam is effectively killed with tank fire while the Kurdish forces make a swift move over Northern Iraq, destroying three Iraqi Army divisions and capturing 5,000 prisoners over only a few days. However, the power vacuum created by Saddam’s assassination allows for an all-out uprising by Shiites under the leadership of Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr. The Grand Ayatollah is backed by Iran, and his forces make quick gains, securing the south and its oil fields as well as most of Baghdad. When December comes, the country is in a civil war opposing the Kurds and the Sunni on one side to the Shiite on the other side. The second and other major event takes place on November 4 when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin is assassinated at a peace rally in Tel Aviv.
In Mexico, uprising continues in Chiapas. In February, the Mexican army launches a major offensive but the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) is able to resist and a fair portion of that region escapes central control by the Mexican government. Another offensive is launched in early fall but this is again unsuccessful.
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