Sorry to say that but Web you are wrong despite having the wisest thinking. Australia can't be hit by nukes during the Twilight War (New Zealand even less).
- Following how the war is set up, the Soviets have lost their pacific fleet (not the case for US, however). I doubt that the US navy/Japanese navy (respectively 1st and 3rd navy in the world) would forget a single Soviet sub. Moreover, these Soviet subs would target US as a priority (as you said Australia can't hit you back).
- Australia is simply out of range (someone mentioned that loosely already but we overlooked that, me included
).
At most, the Soviet can make the Australian desert glow in the dark. Aborigines and Kangaroos might be wiped out and the Soviets will have solve Australia's problems with wild horses and ferral camels
.
Here is a small review of Soviet ICBM range to compare with Australia/New Zealand cities distances to the Soviet Union southern border (There are no ICBM bases directly on that border by the way: add 500/1.000km to the cities distances). That puts two cities within extreme range: Darwin (Crocodile Dundee is gone along with 50.000 Aussies) and eventually Perth (Sorry Targan but you are glowing in the dark
). The most the Soviets will get out of this is a full commitment of an intact Australia to the war (about 3 million troops if you include male/female motivated by anger alone).
RT-23UTTKh Molodets (SS-24) : 10.450km
MR-UR-100 (SS-17) : 11.000km
R-36M/M2 Voyevoda (SS-18) : 11.000km/16.000km (only with 20Mt warhead solely targeted at US ICBM bases…)
RT-2P (SS-13) : 9.500km
RT-2PM Topol (SS-25) : 10.500km
UR-100N (SS-19) : 10.000km
Distance to Soviet Southern Border
Adelaide 10.500km
Brisbane 10.500km
Canberra 11.000km
Darwin 8.000km
Melbourne 11.500km
Perth 9.500km
Sydney 11.000km
Auckland 12.500km
Wellington 13.000km
You might be back to the Spetnaz raid advocated by Leg but that's doubtful as well: they would have to swim a F... Long Way.
One conclusion, T2K team was right, Soviets always considered Australia to be insignificant
. More seriously, Australia without Europe and US is simply no threat except may be to penguins occupying Antartica.
Of course, Soviets have plenty of missiles and warheads but they can't deliver them that far.
I might have the end word on that one (no false modesty but take a map and measure distances
)