Thank you for the kind responses.
So it seems that the general view here also is that Japan would have been subjected to heavy nuclear strikes in T2K and would be in dire straits due to the aforementioned reasons (famine, disease, social unrest and collapse etc.).
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Japan today is almost certainly overcrowded (just look at their trains), however a few nukes on the major cities should reduce this to a more managable level. Japan in years gone past has managed to feed itself, so provided the population was to drop to say 19th century levels, there shouldn't be too many empty stomachs compared to arible land.
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I think you hit the nail on the head there, Legbreaker. From the 18th century through the first half of the 19th century before the Meiji Restoration Japan's population remained steady at about 30 million. So I think this is where Japan's population would ultimately settle at, after the nuclear attack, plagues and famine. Of course, this'd mean that about 95 million or 75% of Japan's 1997 population of 125 million would have perished by 2000 or so, making the US and Canada's death rates of 52 and 45% look absolutely cheerful by comparison

And we all now what a lovely place T2K USA is in 2000, Howling Wilderness or no Howling Wilderness.
You're suggestion about the trade routes between Japan and Australia/New Zealand is interesting, and I do think it could be like that, especially to avoid all the Jack Sparrow wannabes. Like you said, though, coal would be an issue, both because of the difficulty in converting ships to coal-powered as well as the possibility that the Russians would have nuked the cities you mentioned because of the coal, which IMHO would be quite likely.
Trade with Thailand would be more difficult and dangerous, I think, because any ships would have to go through the South China Sea, and everyone would know it, including the pirates.
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Hello John. You've really started posting here with a bang haven't you? Good topic for a thread, I like it. I agree that Japan would be a horrible mess by 2000. The fighting in Korea during the Twilight War was fierce, that alone would have resulted in some sort of spill-over effects for Japan. Japan would definitely have been nuked more than canon says.
Do you have an English translation of the Finnish Sourcebook?
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I own a copy of the Finnish Sourcebook, it's in Finnish but it's ok for me because I'm bilingual in Finnish and English and can translate the text, like I did with the bit about Japan. If people like, I can post translated segments of the book. It's just that I'm not sure how the copyright laws work, and am afraid that I might be breaking some laws if I posted them here.
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Welcome aboard, John.
Japan is a base for US and possibly Allied operations in the ROK, as has been pointed out. This is a perfectly adequate explanation for nuclear action against Japan. The Japanese Navy (Maritime Self Defense Force?) is supposed to work hand-in-hand with the USN against Soviet naval forces. Wherever the constitutional line is drawn, the Allies will push against it. The Soviets will notice.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, I will point to the nuclear treatment of Canada as a yardstick for how the Soviets will restrain themselves when it comes to the use of nuclear fires against non-nuclear Allies. The Soviets absolutely pasted Canada, which had no organic nuclear arsenal. Whether the US retaliated against the USSR or retaliated against a Warsaw Pact ally or other Soviet client is an open question. Nevertheless, the Soviets did far worse to Canada in terms of national damage than they did to the US. Japan, not having any of her own nukes and almost certainly having participated at some level in the fighting in the Far East, should expect the same leniency the Soviets showed non-nuclear, US-allied Canada.
I agree with you, John, that the 2300 AD line of a nearly intact Japan reflects little careful thought. I'm inclined to agree that Threads is a more accurate summary of the situation in Japan of 2000. On the plus side, imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be!
Webstral
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I definitely agree that if the Russians were willing to do that to Canada, a non-nuclear ally of the US with a small population, they certainly wouldn't be merciful towards Japan, which is much bigger and more powerful than Canada, and towards which Russia/USSR would have paranoia because of their past history, as well as Japan's capability to build nukes within 6 months, like headquarters stated.
Oh, I can imagine what a rich gaming environment Japan in 2000 would be! Those in the know of Japanese popular culture know how much apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic stories figure in manga in anime. Such examples include
Akira,
Fist of the North Star,
Violence Jack and many others. I can just imagine insanely powerful psychics, muscle-bound martial artists with seven scars engraved onto their chests and 3-meter tall jack-knife toting maniacs running around T2K Japan. Such stories also have plenty of mad, powerhungry warlords, despots and dictators, together with their legions of howling madmen preying on the weak.

It's a pity that T2K was discontinued so long ago, since I think a Japan-supplement would have definitely sold. I could imagine Tokyo and the Kantou area being a huge Japanese version of Fallout 3's "Capital Wasteland", without the ghouls and the supermutants, of course.
You'all have definitely posted some interesting ideas.