Quote:
Originally Posted by fightingflamingo
I think that by 2000-01 most of the surviving population would be relatively fit, albiet malnourished in some instances. I think the combination of the strikes, disease, and the collapse of infrastructure would have killed off most of those who were not fit. Diabetics and other sufferers of chronic illness would be dead. Because of the lack of antibiotics, many traumatic injuries would result in death, even with otherwise good medical care. Cancer is a long-term problem, but not immediately debilitating depending on the type.
Another think to consider is the baby boom you'd get when people run out of contraceptives and TV goes off the air... I think that although there may be a very high rate of birth defects, you'd still see a radical spike in the number of births per 1000 also as a result of the strikes, among the survivors. This won't play into the immediately available manpower, but does immediately address the need to find teachers (trained or otherwise), and the available manpower situation might be very different by 2010-15.
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However, the infanty mortality rate would also spike, as there would be less neonatal facilities, poorer died and exposure to all manner of nasties for the unborn. Also, a spike in women dying in childbirth as well again because of a lack in prewar treatments.
And the simple childhood maladies that we consider an incovienance now would return and be the killers they were 100+ years ago when a large number of children would not make it to 10 years of age due to disease and injury.
Also, the spike in childbirth, would there be? The reproduction capacity of people under stress shuts down. Due to physical and emotional stress. So, people working hard labor, worried from say a nuclear strike and war all over, and with malnutrition. A little known fact, durring the great depression the birthrate for many nations dropped due to people afraid to start families because of fear of the unknown and economy. For the US it was the lowest birthrate ratio ever. So, it could actualy be in areas with few children. Also, couple it with the wouldbe parents exposuure to radiation, chemicals and other stuff that could make them sterile further reducing the populations ability to return to normal.