I'll toss out some short answers to start a discussion:
1. Help for european neighbors. Likely not a lot in the short term. Internal security and reconstruction seem to be top priorities. Policy at the borders seems largely focused on refugee control. I could see them supporting some local measures near to France because having relatatively stable and friendly areas near the border makes their job easier. Something along the lines of a broad French aid for at least several years seems very unlikey as the French themselves would be unlikely to support it until their conditions improved.
2. French agents in NATO. Probably, but not that many. Networks degraded, communications problems, etc. Still, France can pay and that gets you agents.
3. View of Soviet Threat. Nil in my opinion. I don't see any credible land threat from the Soviet divisions in Eastern Germany. It's not clear they could take out the remaining NATO forces, much less an organized French army.
4. Pact forces. Largely the same. Italy isn't really a committed Pact member and not really set up for offensive action. That and the Alps provide a pretty effective natural barrier from potential Italian invasion. As an aside I think the Italians would fare better post 2k than most timelines give them credit for. They have almost no fighting in on their territory and limited nuking. I see them as a major player in the recovery.
5. Internal struggles. Not an expert, but the Basques could flare up. The flemmish are likely not pro-union but have little ability to argue.
Work calls, so that's all for now.
|