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Old 01-25-2010, 10:11 AM
Adm.Lee Adm.Lee is offline
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Location: Columbus, OH
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Default Different idea about 2000 NATO offensive?

In recent weeks, we have been musing about the "real story" behind the mysteries of the XI Corps, 5th Mech Division, and so on. The Polish Free Congress/government-in-exile has been brought up, so here's my idea.

I'm wondering if the following isn't a possibility.
- In the winter of 1999, the Polish Free Congress has its agents around Poland. Some are newly inserted, some stayed behind when NATO withdrew in late '97. These agents have been working at subverting Polish Army formations, as well as intelligence gathering for NATO. They report that they have gained some influence over some Polish commanders in the northern sector.
- The Polish Free Congress' representatives to SACEUR or to Third German Army report their findings, and present the possibility that a strong NATO attack, led by the Americans, might enable various Polish formations to break ranks, join NATO, and drive the Soviets out of the country-- or at least farther away from the German border.
- Key to this operation is the appearance of American formations in Polish-held areas, so that Polish commanders can point to them and tell their subordinates that the Soviets won't be able to crush them for switching sides. By the end of the summer, the Pact forces in southwest Poland and southeast Germany would be cut off by Polish and NATO forces, and forced to surrender or starve.
- Thus, the XI Corps is selected to spearhead the drive, with divisions detailed to appear rapidly and suddenly in the Pact rear. Months' worth of fuel production, and reserve stocks of ammunition, are allotted to this drive. Polish representatives are sent to each headquarters, to assist in making contact with the "inside people."
- 2nd Marine Division would land in the rear of the Polish cavalry armies.
- 8th Mech Division is to be sent to Lithuania, where PFC agents had identified pro-NATO (or pro-Polish) resistance elements.
- 5th Mech Division is to storm south to Lodz, and perhaps Krakow or Silesia, bringing those cities and their militias over to the PFC.

A bold plan. Unfortunately, it all breaks down, as we know. The Soviets bring the Fourth Guards Tank Army from way in the rear, not all of the Polish forces switch sides, and fierce counterattacks and raids by Pact horsemen drive off the III German Corps, leaving XI US Corps out on a limb.
Possibilities for the GM: many of the Polish agents were reporting far too optimistically about the possibility of such a coup.
Possibilities for the cruel GM: Some or all of the PFC agents had been burned and turned by the KGB or GRU, and the operation was designed to draw NATO into throwing away an irreplaceable American corps and ruining the reputation of the PFC within NATO.

Note: I've been reading a bit on Operation Market-Garden, and the 2000 offensive seems a lot like the Bridge Too Far. Also read that the whole Dutch resistance network set up by the SOE in WW2 was run by the Gestapo.
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