Reading Chico's options, my initial reaction was to favour option 4, a move against Iran.
However, upon reflection...I'm presuming that would ultimately make Iraq a Soviet ally and therefore, by definition, an enemy of NATO. And we all know how badly Saddam's first attempt to occupy Iranian territory went for Iraq...so that option begins to look maybe a little less likely...would making enemies of NATO and Iran be a wise move?
Whereas in 1990 he was able to take Kuwait in a matter of hours.
So, weighing up the different options, I've ended up in favour of option 2/3. As Chico states, the Coalition that threw him out of Kuwait first time round is somewhat busy fighting a World War, so he may think there's a chance that he might get away with it this time.
As to whether he only goes for Kuwait or also goes for Saudi....If he takes Kuwait only, I think there is a possibility that the rest of the Arab World might let that go, meaning Saddam has scored big time, assuming his numerical superiority means he can overcome any Western forces present in Kuwait. (Yes, I know that's put him at War with NATO, but he's not at War with Iran as well, and as noted above CENTCOM's resources are going to be limited)
On the other hand if he continues on into Saudi, then the conflict might widen, as other Arab states send forces to Saudi Arabia to help defend Mecca and Medina from Iraqi aggression. How would Saddam fare against the combined Egyptian, Syrian, and Saudi armies (amongst others)?
Of course, as you say Saddam could choose to do something completely different that's both irrational and illogical. And once the nukes start flying in Europe absolutely anything is possible (perhaps an attack on Western Iran supported by chemical weapons?). Personally I think the most likely outcome post November 1997 is a break up of Iraq into various tribal / religous areas.
Hope that all makes sense...
