[Legbreaker]

Many of the long serving soldiers stationed in Europe may have integrated into the society, marrying locals, buying homes, etc. This is obviously less likely for lower ranks and reinforcements though, but we're talking civilian dependants here, not the soldiers themselves.

I can't see people who've made a life for themselves fleeing their homes and going halfway around the world, just because there's a war on waaaaay over to the east (which their side appears to be winning very handily). Once the tide turned and Nato was being pushed back, then the nerves might come into play however they've still got their homes and the world around them appears to be operating normally on the whole.

Reinforcement Divisions are still flooding into Europe and you can bet the news reports are being sensored to spare the civilians the true situation on the front - all possible efforts would likely be made to spin the situation and keep everyone happy.

Even once tac nukes were being used, I doubt there'd be much worry - the nearest in the early stages was waaaay over near the Russian (Not USSR) border and aimed at military targets.

Civilian travel is likely to become restricted too, if only because more and more of the available fuel is being used by the military. Civilian cars might still be allowed, however the cost of running one has by this time likely tripled or more.

Another factor is the perception, based on reality or not, that the EMP from tac nukes could effect planes thousands of miles away causing them to drop out of the sky. Even if regulatory bodies allowed Airlines to fly, and they could afford the fuel, I can't imagine the huddled masses being too keen on risking their lives in that way.

Which leaves travel by ship. As we know, a great deal of shipping is on the bottom by mid 1997 and I would imagine that many, if not most of the passenger vessels had been pressed into service as troop transports making them into prize targets for subs and raiders. This belief is borne out by several unit histories stating they'd suffered heavy casualties in the crossing from the US to Europe.

Even with these losses, there may be a number of passenger capable ships available, however fuel (again) would be in relatively short supply. Many of these ships would also probably be carrying wounded soldiers back to the US so space would still be fairly limited. Also, by this time, most people would be well aware of the high level of destruction on the seas so only a few might be willing to risk gambling against being sunk during the crossing.

Once in the US, these people are likely to have nowhere to go if they're originally from Europe. Those who are US citizens and had travelled TO Europe with their partners, may well have family and friends, but again fuel to get them there may be an issue.

Once the nuke war really opens up in November 1997, it seems highly unlikely there'd be anyone heading to the US. As bad as things must be in Europe, everyone knows the US was bound to be targeted by ICBMs and the cities wiped off the face of the planet. Why would anyone want to give up the little they have and travel to a place which is widely rumoured to have been flattened?

By Christmas 97-98, rumour is probably all anyone outside the military (and inside too most probably) would have to go on. One rumour might say the US is totally un-nuked and a wonderful paradise, while another says it's nothing more than one great big smoking hole glowing with radioactivity...
Which one are you going to believe?