[sglancy12]

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think that there's a danger in predicting what would have happened in the Twilight version of WWIII based on what's happened since the publication of the v1.0 timeline. That's why I'm hestitant to incorporate Desert Storm into my T2K alternate history.

Well clearly it's all alt hist, so anything you want is kosher.

Originally Posted by Raellus

For example, I think there's a danger in assuming that the U.S. would have cleaned house in Europe based on its quick and relatively painless defeat of the Iraqi army in '91 and '03. Or assuming that the Soviet Union would have been easily defeated in Europe based on the piss-poor performance of the Russian Federation military during its first go-round in Chechnya.

Sure, the Iraqis of '91 and '03 aren't the Red Army of 1984. And neither the Red Army of 1992. The Red Army of ver 1 canon is more like a snapshot of what we thought, at the time, the Red Army was. I just happen to think that we over-valued the red army of 1984. And I think that the US Army of 1984 wasn't likely to run as smoothly as it did in '91 without those "shakedown cruises" in Grenada and Panama. Both those actions exposed serious weaknesses in the manner the US military conducted it's business. Weaknesses that were removed by 1991.

Originally Posted by Raellus

If we've learned anything since 2001, it's that the U.S. is not invincible. We've been in Afghanistan since '01 and Iraq since '03 and there's really no end in sight.

But the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan are low intensity conflicts. The casualty rates are small compared to Viet Nam, tiny compared to Korea, and nearly unreadable compared to WWII. Sure, they drag on forever, but the enemy isn't looking to drive us out like the Brits in Afghnanistan in the 1840s. They are waiting for public opinion in the US to so turn against the conflict that our elected representatives will be more worried about protecting their jobs than they are worried about whether fighting the wars is good national policy or not.

But Iraq in '91 and the USSR of ver 1 canon give the US military exactly the kind of war it was designed to fight: a stand up, combined arms confrontation on land, sea and air. The Iraqis and Afghans are giving the US the war that the insurgents want. Using suicide bombers to blow up people going to worship or to market. How do you defend against that with your armored platoon of M1A1 tanks?

And no, I am not suggesting that US Army officers sit around impotently in their armored vehicles while Iraqis are blown up around them. It's a metaphor for the problem of bringing the wrong weapon to the wrong fight.

Originally Posted by Raellus

With our current all-volunteer force stretched dangerously thin as it is, I'm not sure how one could argue that we could spank the "old"Soviet Union/WTO in Europe, let alone hold our own in a two-theatre war with the Russian Federation/USSR and China. The correlation of forces for the latter is just insanely one sided. But I digress

The ver 1 canon US Military is a draft army, not a volunteer one, and would not have undergone the force reductions that happened IRL after the dissolution of the USSR. As for how I can argue that... it depends on the kind of war you expect to US to fight against he USSR/PRC. I see the US war in East Asia as a defensive one. Nobody in the Pentagon wants to wade into the tarpit of mainland China. So they confine themselves to defending the Japanese Islands, Taiwan, and South Korea. It falls to the US Navy and the USAF to defend Japan and Taiwan, and the US Army and Marine Corps to keep south Korea from going under.

But the thing is, the US has fought and won a two-front war: WII. The USSR never has. No one ever has. The Germans tried it twice and lost twice. I think that the US can fight a war in Europe, the Persian Gulf and East Asia against the USSR and the PRC and create a stalemate. I do not think we could win because "How would you win?" We could contain the Communist conventional forces but we would never be about to drive into the enemy heartland and destroy their means of waging the war. We just don't have the men and material to do it. The last guys to win a conventional war against Russia AND China were the Monghols! If the US wants to end such a war, it'll be at the negotiating table or through the use of nuclear weapons to destroy the enemy's 3C and industrial capacity. The USSR is in the same position.

Which, in the second case, is what leads to the armageddon of the Twilight War.

Originally Posted by Raellus

I think most people here are of the school of thought that the v1.0 timeline can be reconciled with the real-world events of the early '90s. In my mind, that's a justification of the v2.2 timeline. I know that I am in the minority but I think that the divergence needs to occur well before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

You won't hear me disagree with you on that. There's just no way that Eastern Europe can break away from Moscow control, the USSR dissolves in 1991 and yet manages to get itself back together just in time for the kick off of a Sino-Soviet War in 1995.

My timeline diverges before the 1989 Revolutions in Eastern Europe and the old line Bolsheviks head them off just in the nick of time. But it results from a secret alliance between hardliners in Moscow and Peking who recognize that Glasnost, Peristroika and democracy are the real enemies... not Maoism vrs. Leninism.

Originally Posted by Raellus

There's just too much historical gymnastics going on to try to align everything so that v1.0 canon works with historical events that took place after its establishment. Many have tried but, IMO, all of the results are unsatisfactory. A U.S. military with Cold War era funding and Gulf War experience taking on the weak, decrepit, last-legs Soviet military is not a fair fight, at least in the opening stages, and it makes the v1.0 canon seem silly. For v1.0 to remain valid, the USSR must remain solvent and healthy.

Which is why I feel justified in allying the People's Republic of China to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. I can come up with some reasons why the two countries could support each other, and perhaps justify some economic and military recovery. But, with the PRC on the same side of the USSR, or at least not hostile, now you've got a fair fight again.

Originally Posted by Raellus

Someday, when I have the free time to do it right, I am going to do my homework and come up with a plausible scenario that explains/justifies the continued existence of a fairly robust Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact through the nineties. Right now, I don't have the knowledge to do so and do so realistically.

Well, one presumes that the USSR population ends up going through a kind of economic depression (like the rest of the world did) in the early 1990s. But the USSR would not have to go through the period of Kleptocracy that plagued the post USSR states. As the former USSR privatized, billions and billions of dollars were lost as corrupt officials sold off state enterprises for pennies on the dollar in exchange for hefty bribes.

A decent suggestion might be that the USSR manages to stave off the economic collapse of the 1990s and gets a boost in oil revenue by allying with the PRC during the same period... even though oil prices are depressed in this era. In fact, prices could be driven lower if the USSR is dumping cheap oil on the international market.

Originally Posted by Raellus

Why do I feel the need to defend and preserve the v1.0 timeline? Because that's what I grew up with. When I was a kid, the Russians were the bad guys- Red Storm Rising, Red Dawn, Team Yankee, Spies Like Us, If the Russians Love Their Children Too, Rambo III, Rocky IV, James Bond ad infinitum... I don't want a "reimagined" T2K. That's why I despise the v2.2 timeline and why I probably won't ever pick up T2K13 or whatever. I don't hate Russians but they're the iconic T2K enemy. Call me a dinosaur but that's the way I feel about it. If I want an "updated" T2K, I'll buy myself a copy of Modern Warfare 2.

I'm certainly not suggesting that the USSR has any other role in TW2K than being the opposition (some "bad guys" being badder than others). Certainly the old men in the Kremlin are the problem even if individual Soviet citizens aren't. I don't want to re-imagine the time line for any other reason than giving the USSR a believable fighting chance against the USA and NATO. So if you think I've got some plan that involves evoking historical or moral relativism, you would be wrong.

A. Scott Glancy, President TCCorp, dba Pagan Publishing