I tend to agree.
Unless there is actual fighting going on in the area, most people are likely to remain in places they are most familiar with. Even if forced to flee, once fighting has passed by, most will probably attempt to return to their homes.
However in the face of a hostile force, flight is much more likely. Therefore, I can see those who believe Nato to be the enemy fleeing east during the earlyl stages of the war, only to try returning once the front has moved back past their homes and they feel safe enough to return.
Those who see the west as liberators are almost certain to take shelter while the fighting goes on, only to flee to the west months later when the Pact counter attack (late 1997).
Naturally there's going to be exceptions "to the rule" but I see that as what the majority of people would do.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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