Kalos, I don't think you are overthinking the problem at all. You have to set your own standard for realism. I encourage you to think through the most important aspects of arming a militia.
The real killer for assault rifles after the nuclear exchange isn't going to be over-use. The real killer is going to be neglect and other types of improper maintenance. Even on Manhattan, owners of M16 type rifles aren't going to be firing a magazine of ammunition every day. In most locations, the rifles may go weeks without being discharged. This isn't to say that some rifles won't wear out from overuse. However, the need to conserve ammunition will prompt the most heavy users of assault rifles in CONUS to emphasize good rifle marksmanship over spray-and-pray. Again, there will be those who empty magazines to no effect; but they won't last long. By 2000, pretty much all of the assault rifle users will have figured out the mismatch between the rifle's ability to fire ammunition and the local ability to replace it.
Regular, disciplined maintenance of firearms will be a serious issue in 2000. Rust happens. For the M16 family, diligent maintenance is a must.
I try to avoid allowing the information contained in a module to override my common sense. In the case of M16s in New York, a working M16 is going to be worth a lot. Its high magazine capacity, low recoil, and emphasis on use against targets at ranges closer than 400 meters make it a good weapon for the urban jungle of Manhattan. Close quarters combat will feature prominently in the tactics of the so-called armies of the night. The M16 has an excellent mix of features for offsetting the potential advantage of the gangs' inclination to mass, move under cover, and assault in numbers as a means of negating the defenders' fire. In other words, what M16s are available are going to be prized possessions. Some explanation ought to be offered for why a working M16 is being sold by anybody. Equipping a unit of any size with M16s deserves some explanation. I commend you for putting some thought into your work.
Webstral
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