Bon dia!
Here are some thoughts from one Western European point of view. Here, nationalities inside the legal state must be taken into account. It’s a day to day fact in the normal life of some European countries. Peaceful and non-peaceful tensions between nationalities and legal states exists in peace time. Tensions would grow up with the prewar scalation. And there’s a good chance that some kind of violent conflict would erupt with the war.
This could affect the number of desertions of the soldiers belonging to these nationalities. The use of the forced conscription option by the state can be the critical point. In most cases, nationalities would tend to disagree with the implication of the state in a foreign war. If conflict erupts between a nationality and the state, a good number of conscript and professional soldiers could choose to desert. This could be aggravated due to the reaction of the state against the nationality and the use of the army inside the state’s borders. As an example, in Catalunya, the forced conscription of Catalan soldiers to fight in the Spanish Army in Morocco started an uprising in 1909.
Another point is the capacity of administration to identify and act against deserters. After the nukes, few of them will have this capacity. In a lot of countries, people could blame the government for the destruction. “Look what have caused our implication in other’s war”. I’m pretty sure this will be the feeling in Spain or Italy, for example. People will not collaborate in reporting deserters. In some places, one self’s country will end in the borders of one self’s village. The deserters will be needed at home.
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