HQ, I like your thinking. The US and the UK could find themselves in a real pickle regarding a confrontation between Indonesia and ANZET (Australia, New Zealand, and East Timor). I like the idea of bringing in China. Perhaps, political machinations being what they are, the US/UK can be kept on the sidelines because tyhe belief that a localized conflict between strictly regional players is preferable to a more generalized conflict. Perhaps the stage could be set with the emergence of a more militant government in Indonesia. This government might make a deal with China for some sort of exclusivity regarding access to Indonesian oil and whatever oil comes out of the East Timor "situation". China, interested in having more oil and interested in flexing her muscles a bit, agrees to back Indonesia with material support and diplomatic support.
Some sort of maskirovka has to be generated to create a casus belli in East Timor. Once the shooting starts, Indonesia makes a bid to keep US/UK forces out of the fight by having China delcare the war a local confrontation not involving the great powers. Behind the scenes, China rattles the coin box fat with US Treasury notes.
Of course, Australia has strong ties to the Chinese economy, too. I'm not sure how to play that one out. Maybe China plays both sides here. China doesn't interfere with ANZ support for East Timor so she can watch how the war unfolds, and also to give her client a chance to beat some Westerners. Once things go a certain distance, of course, China intends to step in and call for peace on terms favorable to her client. There's a complex political dance needed to enable ANZET to carry the story by fighting Indonesia without having the great powers get involved. Hm.
Webstral
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