I don't think the fear of nuclear war really diminishes after the first month -- after it doesn't go immediately nuclear, political and military leaders are going to watch those Soviet armored columns creeping down across the map and wonder what the tipping point for the Chinese leadership is as they get increasingly desperate. The major arms shipments to the PRC mentioned in the T2K timeline are probably at least as much about propping up the Chinese government and giving them non-nuclear options as it is about hammering the Soviets (though, obviously, that's nice, too . . .).
I'd question the pay off for France, too. Their general ambition for years has been to play a larger leadership role in Europe. A surprise gang raping of Canada doesn't really do anything to advance that goal, just makes them look like a pariah state even without adding in the tension of the Sino-Soviet War.
Of course that doesn't mean people in French politics wouldn't make statements supporting Quebecois separatists, and doesn't mean that might not sway some voters, even if the official French position is neutral or opposition. Also doesn't mean that in the T2K universe the KGB wouldn't be pumping money into Quebec politics discretely and more directly into fringe groups willing to bomb an occasional symbol of Anglophone oppression. Could be dangerously provocative from the Soviet position as well, but perhaps the cost is deemed worth it -- supporting all those European Marxist terrorist groups in the 1970s was very provocative too, after all.
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