Without making reference to any other idea in this thread, I agree that underestimating the enemy and/or overestimating ourselves is a constant danger to the US military and probably Western militaries in general. Misjudging the enemy and/or ourselves is a battle that must be fought constantly. Like the dark side of the Force, the temptation to underestimate the enemy's intelligence, determination, ability to adapt, and so forth exists at all times for all people at every level of command. While I'd feel safe putting down money that 90% or so of the rifles on the ground in Afghanistan understand that they are up against an enemy with some undeniable strengths on his side, I feel equally safe putting money down that folks much further up the chain have failed to take the challenge as seriously as it needed to be taken.
There was an article in Newsweek a little while back about the absence of a centralized, standardized, and properly-funded effort to build the Afghan police after a mere eight years of war. NPR and CNN commented on the President's reaction to the revelation. This is a failure of leadership at the highest levels, since efforts were being made on the ground to train Afghan police with whatever resources lower-echelon players could accumulate. Our leadership underestimated the challenge of putting together a proper police force, underestimated the importance of the police in fighting an insurgency, and overestimated the ability of conventional military forces to come to grips with the enemy at the force levels we were willing to maintain in Afghanistan.
Going along with your sentiments about the enemy's level of wealth and standards of living, Jester, we should remember that Western forces have been defeated or fought to a stalemate by poorer people who were willing to accept an unfavorable exchange rate. The French and the Americans failed to defeat the Vietnamese Communists, despite inflicting very serious damage and achieving a very favorable exchange rate. The Zimbabwean Communists eventually brought down Rhodesia, despite a very favorable exchange rate for the Rhodesians. The Taliban endure.
Of course, there are recent examples of triumph by Western forces--Malaya being salient. We need to do a better job at all levels of command in our efforts to learn the right lessons from Malaya, Kenya, Rhodesia, Korea, Vietnam, El Salvador, Columbia, the Soviet experience in Afghanistan, etc. Each of these wars has a distinct identity, but all have something to teach us about how those with technical inferiority fight enemies with more money and more flushing toilets.
Webstral
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