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Originally Posted by Targan
(copied from Recovery Plan thread)
Chico, I realise that given the vast scope of the work you guys have been doing, your thoughts on Australia would necessarily take up a very small portion. When you mentioned in your last post that Darwin was a link in the air corridor from CENTCOM's AO back to the CONUS it immediately got me thinking. I don't think that most of the rest of the world really understand the truly vast amounts of natural resources that Australia possesses.
On a global scale Australia is not a major oil producer but we do produce oil in not inconsiderable amounts and have large reserves (mostly off the NW and northern coasts and especially between Australia and East Timor) which remain largely untapped. But even more significantly Australia has truly enormous reserves of natural gas and coal (and I mean seriously enormous) and even after the Twilight War some ability to tap them.
And while Australia may not currently produce all that much high tech gear it has more to do with commercial realities pre-war than ability. Australia is a first world, high tech nation. If Australia's manufacturing infrastructure remained largely intact after the Twilight War it would (in my opinion) be an invaluable partner for the huge task of rebuilding the power of the USA. If Darwin was a major staging point for US air and sea assets to and from the US and the Middle East I'm sure it would receive US land, air and sea military assets to enhance its security and or provide assistance to the Australian Defence Force to do its job better.
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Good point Targan! I have a feeling that many people are unaware that much of the goods produced in China are made from Australian raw materials in factories powered by Australian coal!
On the oil production, I'd have to check how much production was in 1996 vs now. I know that with the independence of East Timor offshore oil exploration has really taken off and is continuing to do so (At the office I'm currently working on relocating a deep-water oil rig from the Gulf of Mexico to Australian waters). For T2k it's really a question of what was going on in 1996 and would the resources be available during the war to continue at the RL rate. For the recovery plan, the exploration and extraction resources are very limited and it makes sense to at least initially concentrate them where there is existing military forces, infrastructure (partially damaged but repairable) and where the oil is easiest to get to (Middle Eastern crude is much cheaper to extract than offshore deepwater). On a longer term, developing oil production outside the Persian Gulf is absolutely essential, as the political stability in the region is not there and the transportation a real hassle, especially with limited ability to repair existing ships and produce new ones.
As for Australia helping the US, we'd love it. The big issue we are facing, however, with all international trade, is that the U.S. really doesn't have anything to trade with less damaged nations other than a trickle of oil from CENTCOM (and each drop of oil to a trading partner slows recovery of the US), military force (which will decline as equipment wears out) and scrap steel (a great deal of which is irradiated). Australians are great, generous people, but you have a (reasonable) expectation to be paid, and the U.S. really has nothing to pay with. (Recovery of 80 tons of gold from a pond in NYC might make a difference, but even that has to be judged carefully).
The security situation for Australia seems pretty good, IMHO limiting the demand for US security assistance. The Indo invasion (if any) has withered out by 2000, the long-range aircraft and missiles of the world have either flown or are out of fuel or touch with HQ and the US and France operate the only remaining navies. Piracy (to a certain extent on a scale comparable to what is occurring off Somalia right now, but with sails instead of diesel-powered boats) is endemic worldwide, so US Navy escorts of convoys and active and aggressive patrolling of offshore oil fields would be helpful (given the size of the RAN). Of course, providing the ADF with the occasional tanker full of JP-8 and diesel would certainly help!