[RN7]

It's an implied threat. The Chinese have long been the poor cousins in the superpower world, and now they're flexing their muscles a bit more. They want their piece of the world dominance pie. This is just a very small part of their plan to get it. I often tell people that in 25 years or so, the US will be the no. 2 superpower -- China will be No. 1. That may or may not be true, but they're definitely beginning to unwrap and want more of a say over what goes on in the world. Now that the Russians are no longer a superpower and they've basically subverted out economy, there's not much we can do about it.

There are a number of reasons why China will not be the leading superpower in 25 years time, most of which relate to why America is currently a superpower and why it will be very difficult for China to ever really match it.

A superpower does not only have to have military and political influence, but must also have economic, technological and cultural influence. Besides America the only country which can claim to have been a superpower on the aforementioned criteria over the past two hundred years has been Britain and the British Empire, as even the Soviet Union at its height was not a match for America in most of these areas.

Most people look at China’s rapid economic growth over the past 15 years to explain why China will soon match and overtake America as the world’s most powerful country. However the statistics are misleading. China’s recent growth in manufacturing has not greatly affected America’s position in world share of manufacturing over the past decade, and has far more affected other Asian countries and Europe, particularly the position of Japan in world manufacturing share. Also for China to match America’s economy it would have to grow by 10-11% every year over the next 25 years, which is higher than the current 9-10% rate, while America’s would have to grow at only 3% per year over 25 years which is a lot lower than the world average. Therefore China would have to achieve in 25 years what it took America to do in 90 years from 1945, and even then if measured in total GDP the per capita income of China would be only one quarter of America’s. All of this doesn’t take into account recessions, volatile world markets and political instability of which China is more vulnerable than America to. However some ignore total GDP statistics when looking at China, and discuss PPP GDP. By that criteria China’s economy is measured in much larger size, and would be the second largest in the world after America. However PPP statistics are basically the simplest tool used to measure a nations economic size, basically multiplying national income by the population and it is inaccurate and tells nothing of the size of the total economy, and international trade is conducted in nominal terms. Also America industry is far less dependent on exports than most other industrialised countries and China, largely due the fact that the US domestic market is so big that domestic companies don’t have to rely on exports to make large profits.

Some also point to the weak dollar as a reason why America will soon loose lose economic dominance. However the US dollar comprises 65% of global currency reserves, while the second highest share is that of the Euro at just 25%. Furthermore, the Euro is not rising as a percentage of total reserves, despite the EU and Eurozone adding many new member nations over the past decade. The Chinese Yuan represents under 2% of world reserves and China itself stockpiles US dollars. Also if America declining in financial dominance why is the stock markets of New York as big as Tokyo, London, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Frankfurt and Paris combined?

Also America is a liberal democracy and free market economy. It’s not perfect and like many other countries has its flaws, but China is communist country run by a politburo, and is not a free or a free thinking country. If you criticise the government in China you end up in prison, and China’s human rights record is appalling. Ask the Tibetans how free they are.

Another argument used to define China’s rise is its growing military capability. Currently America is unmatchable in almost every sphere of military power, the Russians still match it in nuclear weapons but nowhere else. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power despite military spending being only 3% of its economy which is a lower proportion than many other countries. China would have to multiply its defence spending by a factor of seven or eight annually for the next decade to even come near America, and unlike America which funds its defence spending almost effortlessly, this level of defence spending would bankrupt China. Also China would have to take over the role of global policeman which America does despite all its critics. The left-wingers, the pseudo intellectuals, Islamic fundamentalist and various people and countries with an axe to grind against the Yankee Imperialist love to hate America, and love to condemn it over its shameful past such as slavery, segregation, the treatment of Native Americans, and political interference in Latin America. But when some evil dictator or regime threatens or invades another country or commits acts of genocide despite UN sanctions, who does the world look to send in the cavalry? Are the Chinese going to put themselves forward and take up this burden? If America donates money to humanitarian crisis for example in Africa people criticise America for not donating enough or doing enough, but who ever asks China?

Another measurement of a countries power could be the reputation of its education system and knowledge economy. There are about 30 American universities which are renowned the world over, Harvard, MIT, Yale, and Stanford etc etc. And of the rated top 20 in the world 17 are American, two of the other three are in England and the other one isn’t Chinese. America is the centre of gravity for all types of scientific research, 32% of the world in 2007 which is twice as much China and the entire EU combined. America is not just dominant in research but it is the world leader in the process to deliver innovations to the global marketplace. To displace America, China would have to be dominant in producing new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the market into daily lives were America has and remains the focus of most technological progress and new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from American companies. Also of the top of my head I could name twenty American household brand names such as Coca Cola, McDonalds, IBM, Ford, Microsoft, Intel, Apple, Boeing, Xerox, Kodak, Google, Nike etc etc. I could also name quite a few European and Japanese brands, but I could not name one Chinese. One could say that the Chinese are merely emulating the Japanese and then the Koreans who were very successful in marketing their companies worldwide, but the Chinese have been at it for at least 15 years now and I cannot think of one brand name that I know is Chinese, and in fact I would say the dominance of American brand names has even grown over the past 15 years particularly in areas such as IT, computers and telecommunications where previously the Japanese were becoming a dominant force. Also in the entertainment industry; music and film, America absolutely dominates the world. In the film industry India is far bigger than China, and Britain is far more important and productive in music.

Also how many people want to immigrate to China and how many want to immigrate to America? Does China attract the best and brightest immigrants; in fact does it attract any immigrants? America has been importing people for centuries, and continues to do so in their millions, legally and illegally, while China has a net outflow of native born Chinese and many come to America.

Finally you could rate a countries power by its ambitions and accomplishments, and China’s ambitions were recently demonstrated by putting an astronaut into space. China is planning to send people to the moon over the next 15 years and even Mars by mid century. However China’s recent space achievements were greatly assisted by Russia and without Russian involvement I would say it would be doubtful that they could have put people into orbit let alone send them to the moon. It also counts on America not responding to a challenge to its domination in space activity. The last time that America was challenged in space it led to numerous space programs that totally eclipsed Soviet space activity and sent Neil Armstrong to the Moon, and that was 41 years ago!