Hi Matt,
I respect your right to your own opinion on this, and note the several good points you make. I'll just offer an alternative viewpoint, not that I expect you to agree and not looking to start a flamewar.
Matt believes the PRC does not have the sensor suite to target the ASBM. In fact China has been working just as hard on the sensor, and sensor-to-shooter links as they have on the missile itself (this isn't just for the ASBM, of course, as an ocean surveillance suite will be just as useful potentially for other forms of attack on US interveeners - cruise missiles, hypersonic strike missiles, CAVs, subs, UUAVs, etc). Rather than just take my word for it, for examples of the sensor effort, see
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2008/11/...bm-threat.html
http://thetaiwanlink.blogspot.com/20...zon-radar.html
and the more recent
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2010/05/...h-network.html
For RORSATs see "yaogan" which is, of course, described by the PRC as a civilian satellite series to be sure. In 2008 the PRC also launched a data relay satellite, which as you'll know expands their options.
Also search "china strategic uavs" to see the investment in developing Global Hawk type aircraft.
Matt asserts that the warhead must be nuclear. Quite the contrary. The warhead is far more likely to be some form of submunitions, or a penetrator, or EMP. See
http://geimint.blogspot.com/2009/04/...ery-corps.html
and scroll down to test locations to see the testing already down with these types of payloads. A mission kill on a carrier is far more important for PLA objectives in East Asia than starting 'global thermonuclear war'.
SS-NX-13 is an interesting story. Matt provides one interpretation,but I'd note another is that the system tested fine but was not seen as valuable enough to survive the arms control treaties of the 1970s - which limited all SSBNs regardless of range or purpose.
Anyway, just a few alternate interpretations, everyone is free to believe what they want.