Quote:
Originally Posted by RN7
There are a number of reasons why China will not be the leading superpower in 25 years time, most of which relate to why America is currently a superpower and why it will be very difficult for China to ever really match it.
A superpower does not only have to have military and political influence, but must also have economic, technological and cultural influence. Besides America the only country which can claim to have been a superpower on the aforementioned criteria over the past two hundred years has been Britain and the British Empire, as even the Soviet Union at its height was not a match for America in most of these areas.
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Interesting criteria to define a superpower (very post 1945) but really wrong in the same time. This would imply that US has been a superpower only between 1945-1990. Personnaly, I would consider that US became a superpower in the late 19th century and still is one.
US has not relied on its military until 1945. Nevertheless, no one could have challenged US by means of arms after 1880. In my poor opinion that made US the most civilized country from 1776 to 1945. Since 1990, I would give that title to Australia and Canada (I'll make friends
).
US political influence was felt as early as 1854 with the forced opening of Japan to the world. It never stopped since that time. It reached a peak after ww2 and it is currently going down.
US economic weight, however, became felt only after 1914. It still is felt today but it is seriously challenged. By the way, strictly speaking, US economy is now second, behind that of EU (which is in no way a superpower, far from it).
US technology is not at all as influencial as it had been in the past. When I came back from US in 1993, I brought back a full suitcase of US technological gears. When I visited in 1998, US had nothing of interest to a European. In 2003, I thought about bringing technology with me to US. This might not last, however.
The cultural influence of US remain high but this is certainly where it looses ground the fastest. Germany is ahead in many ways and Asia as well.
IMPO, the future leading countries will be these capable of reducing their dependence on oil. China is on the run, EU as well (Germany may be leading, way ahead of anyone else). US certainly is on the run. For my part, I would not bury US too fast but I don't think it will ever take the position it once had.
