It almost goes without saying that this topic is a minefield. That much said, let’s play Intel officer and look at everyone’s motivations.
It’s hard to look at a group as large as Mexican immigrants and generalize about their attitudes. Pre-war migrants left Mexico because it wasn’t working out for them. Some may believe that their lot in the US will get better with Mexican troops in charge, just as some real-life Mexican immigrants entertain fantasies of Aztlan, which would surely oblige them to move to Oregon once the people who own everything in Mexico claimed everything in California. Generally, though, people so motivated by their lot to move to the US, legally or otherwise, probably aren’t under a lot of illusions about how much better things would be in the United States if the Mexican government ran things instead of the US government. They’ve had a sample of what things are like under the Mexican government, and they voted with their feet.
The war changes things a bit, of course. According to the v1 chronology, soon after the 1997 nuclear exchange a flood of Mexican refugees cross the Rio Grande. Whether one likes my explanation of what happens in Mexico in 1997 and 1998 or not, something is happening that prompts large numbers of Mexicans to leave home and try their lot in the United States—even after the US has been knocked on its fourth point of contact by the nuclear exchange. Whatever the game designers had in mind for post-Exchange Mexico, it’s bad news.
Red Star, Lone Star summarizes the situation rather nicely. The Anglos in the border regions often don’t discriminate between Mexicans. Among Mexicans, the American citizens and long-term residents are distinct from the new arrivals. While some Mexican-Americans will gravitate towards both camps, the citizens and legal residents have a lot more in common with the Anglos than with the new arrivals, language notwithstanding. In particular, it’s hard to imagine the pre-Exchange successful shop owner or small business operator throwing his or her lot in with refugees or the Mexican Army. A few will perceive that collaboration is in their best interest, though. There is good story-telling potential here, though I doubt I’m the one to tell such a tale.
So throughout the border region we should expect a good deal of white-on-brown/brown-on-white violence (to use a rather crude term) and a good deal of brown-on-brown violence. Once the front stabilizes in California and Texas, life is going to get pretty tough for some folks in some areas. Of course, there will be considerable variation in attitude from location to location, but at the very least tensions will be high within 50km of the front or more.
In Arizona, the collapse of (metropolitan) Phoenix exposes some ugly racial fault lines. Some gangs and neighborhoods settle out along racial lines. By 2000, though, the race issue has taken a back seat to simple survival. The Valley of the Sun, which in pre-war times held more than half of the population of Arizona, dwindles to about 75,000 by the end of 2000. There are still racial tensions, but they are rather like the attitudes of marauder bands in Europe: they’d rather hit the former enemy for supplies and whatnot, but at the end of the day the marauders will target whomever they need to—or ally themselves with whomever they need to. And there are some surviving groups with internal cohesion based on faith or ideology, rather than ethnicity.
Yuma, which falls under the control of the Mexican Army at the beginning of the war and stays that way, loses almost all of its Anglo population by the end of 1999. The Blythe Oasis (have a look at a satellite map, and you’ll see what I mean) has, by 2000, managed to settle into its role as a vassal of the Second Mexican Army. The Mexican Army doesn’t have a permanent garrison in the oasis, but they have a strong influence. The survivors manage to get along in a society that is shaking out a bit like old Egypt. The new Mexican arrivals, who don’t have reliable backing from the Mexican Army, haven’t managed to take things over like they have in the Imperial Valley or in Yuma. Anglo (and other non-Mexican) refugees from Phoenix and elsewhere find that their position isn’t any better than that of the Mexican refugees. The real winners are the Mexican-Americans, who find that they can straddle the fence—for now.
The smaller Mohave Valley Oasis is rather similar, except that they hardly ever see the Mexican Army. More of the original land owners are alive, and there is a somewhat higher percentage of non-Mexican laborers living in the oasis. Overall, though, the Mohave Valley Oasis looks like the Blythe Oasis in miniature. Their boogyman, though, isn’t the Second Mexican Army. The Mohave Valley Oasis dreads the arrival of the Shogun and his Gunryo.
In southern central Arizona, most of the pre-war non-Mexican population has been killed or driven out. During late 1998 and part of 1999, the Sonora Army practiced a methodology that the Serbs in Bosnia and Chechnya would recognize. Regular units began conducting reconnaissance-in-force operations that were a cover for the so-called chupacabra operatives. Taking their name from a very recent monster myth, the special operatives specialize in torture and murder. The SS would recognize this small group by their actions. The chupacabras have played a major role in emptying south central Arizona of all non-Mexicans by 2000.
In SAMAD, integration is the watchword. The much smaller flow of Mexican refugees into southern Arizona in early 1998 was tolerably managed by local US forces. Large numbers of refugees ended up in camps in the area. To the ire of later historians, these refugees ate food that had been stockpiled for Phoenix. However, Mexican refugees were treated tolerably as long as they worked for their keep. SAMAD instituted a citizenship program for all Mexican refugees on the heels of the citizenship program for EPW who worked in the labor battalions and later joined 111th Brigade or another formation in SAMAD.
One of the key elements of the transition in SAMAD was marriage. Many single soldiers took wives from among the refugee population from 1998 onward, thus ensuring that Mexican refugees as a whole had an avenues of integration. Another key element was delivered to the Americans in 1999. After the failure of the 1999 offensive in Arizona, the Mexican Army parleyed with Fort Huachuca for the purpose of prisoner exchange. The Mexican Army only wanted its officers back, plus the hard-line Communists among the EPW at Huachuca who had refused to participate in the Huachucan program for American citizenship. Fort Huachuca turned this into propaganda gold among the Mexican population in SAMAD; by the end of 2000, the first former Mexican EPW had been integrated into 111th Brigade and other formations.
Not all has been rosy in SAMAD in terms of Anglo-Hispanic relations. There have been some ugly incidents along the border. There have been some ugly incidents in the camps. There have been some ugly incidents in the towns. Counter-intelligence pressures on the Mexican population are very markedly more intense than on their non-Mexican counterparts. When new Hispanic wives started appearing on post, there was a brief period of heightened tension. Fortunately, however, the post command sergeant major dealt with the situation quickly and expediently.
Further north, a number of relokees from southern California ended up in Idaho. (It was reasoned that labor would be needed at the Snake River farms.) Unfortunately, with the coming of the new millennium, the New Americans have come out of hiding. Having set the stage for their virulent Aryanism during the years since the Exchange, the New Americans are busy recreating the horror of the Holocaust in their corner of Idaho. People of Hispanic, Asian, and black background have been thrown into concentration camps to work until they die of starvation.
In Nevada, the iron grip of the Shogun has kept race issues on the back burner. The need for labor is such that anyone who can work has a place. In any event, whatever his other flaws the Shogun is no racist. His Nipponized motorized army includes troops of every ethnicity. His special police, the kempeitai, terrorize without regard to skin color.
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