Quote:
Originally Posted by dragoon500ly
In a WWIII setup, I feel that the US would activate Selective Service in the 1995-1997 time frame.
|
I can't see the US activating the Selective Service system at any point before the Bundeswehr crossed the Inter-German Border.
Prior to that you've got the PRC-Soviet fight going full tilt, and the US and other NATO nations pouring support into the PRC. Political leadership, in my opinion, is not going to risk a huge gesture like a return to the draft that might make the Soviets fear that they are about to be on the receiving end of a two front war. Too much aggression (or actions that a paranoid authoritarian regime might consider aggressive) could easily be taken the wrong way and possibly provoke a nuclear response from the Soviets. And not a tit-for-tat T2K nuclear attack, but possibly the nation-wiper first strike that both sides feared during the Cold War.
My guess/personal take is that once the Sino-Soviet War goes hot, the US government boosts spending on all sorts of military programs, with some of that going to the PRC and some of it going into bringing the reserve component more up to date. Additionally, more money would get pumped into recruiting and bonus programs, etc., to encourage voluntary enlistment in the active and reserve components. The reserve component would likely get additional money for training and (maybe/god willing) some of that would translate into identifying and trying to correct the problems that came to light IRL when the Nat'l Guard round out brigades fumbled their Desert Storm mobilization.
Much lower profile, Selective Service gets dusted off and looked at, ready to be put into play, but the government doesn't take that step until after the European war starts. Even then, they might not immediately put it into play, potentially waiting to see if the war will be a quick German reunification and then a peace settlement. Again, I don't think anyone would want to send the Soviets the message that it's war to the knife and the panzer columns are heading for the gates of Moscow again (even if that's exactly what it started turning into as the war developed).