Quote:
Originally Posted by HorseSoldier
With Soviet armored columns knifing towards Peking, I'm pretty sure the Chinese would cut ties with everyone in Africa. First, they're on the verge of collapse anyway, and secondly their support in Africa was anti-Western during the Cold War and I can't imagine they'd be able to keep supporting those clients while relying on NATO for shipments of arms and munitions to help turn back the .sovs.
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HS,
I would tend to disagree for two reasons:
With the Soviets invading their home territories, I imagine the Chinese would need resources from places like Africa more than ever to fight them. Especially Sudanese oil as the Gulf is an active war zone. Even as international commerce collapses I think you'd see a trickle of vital trade being maintained with the African clients they cultivated as long as possible.
I don't quite follow your second point completely, so please bear with me if I'm missing something. Chinese support in Africa in the Cold War
wasn't particularly anti-western in nature (other than anti-Taiwanese independence). In fact, their military aid in Africa was either anti-Soviet or in support of neutral nations to burnish its leadership of the "Non-Aligned Movement" (NAM). Obviously, while allies with nothing to offer would be cut off, others would find the bill for past support coming due. We tend to think of aid as being gifts to win friends and influence, but Chinese aid in Africa was always been very pragmatic and of a quid pro quo nature. In other words, they make sure they get direct value for their aid (both military and economic) and would therefore be motivated to keep it up as long as possible, which I think could exist in the form of trade throughout the Twilight War.
How China could pay for needed African resources would change over the course of the Twilight War. For example, before there was direct western involvement the USA and western European nations could guarantee loans to China to pay for resources, or even funnel aid (economic or military) directly to Chinese Clients to bolster them against Soviet influence or against Soviet clients. In the later stages of the war, pure military and economic aid would dry up as industrial infrastructure comes under nuclear attack. The HW Handbook mentions that Chinese warlords are able to independently produce weapons and ammunition and where possible these could be traded.
Of course, as mentioned the main player in Africa will once again be France. If anyone could facilitate African trade with China it would be them, mainly by guaranteeing Chinese purchases of African resources and funneling aid to China through their own clients and former colonies. One good reason for France to gain influence in postwar Asia and in doing so better position itself as the next postwar superpower.
Tony