Tony,
I agree with a lot of what you have to say but I question T2K China's ability to maintain trade links with Africa. The Cold War Soviet navy was a lot stronger than the CW PRC navy and I see the Soviets as being able to shut down most of China's maritime trade. Soviet commerce raiders (mostly subs) wouldn't have much trouble sinking unescorted Chinese merchant vessels. I say unescorted because CW China's navy didn't really have much of a blue water capability. NATO navies would be too busy to escort Chinese merchant ships on their way to and from Africa.
I see China's main maritime priority during the war as maintaining the flow of military and humanitarian aid coming in from the States. Africa would quickly become a sideshow and, once the Soviets start launching large-scale nuclear strikes against the PRC, I just don't see China as being able to maintain significant trade with Africa.
In my Operation Proud Lion scenario I allude to the fact that China, once very active in the region (Tanzania in particular), had to pretty much cut ties after the Soviet invasion. The Soviets used this to leverage support in the region, leading to the Tanzanian invasion of Kenya.
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