Quote:
Originally Posted by Raellus
Agreed. According to v1.0 canon, China is in no shape to sustain international trade after the second year of the war.
South Africa is definitely the wild card in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Rae,
China couldn't do it on it's own, but it could with help. More to the point, as mentioned there are outside groups that would have ample motives to do so. It's therefore within the realm of the possible that there are Chinese nationals active in Africa, minding what small yet vital trickle of resources can be sent overseas.
Regarding the other points about South Africa (made by various posters), I guess it's a matter of comparison if it's a "shining beacon" or not. It's worthy to note that political violence has decreased significantly during ANC rule, although not disappeared. While the KGB may have been involved in covert support of the ANC, the ANC's greatest political victories came after this support was ended, indicating internal social forces and not outside influence were the main driving force for the ANC. Mandela's motives can certainly be second-guessed. I think if he was a true communist then he would have easily been able to implement wide-ranging political and economic "reforms" along the lines of "socialist" neighbors and other African nations, but this did not happen. Elections are internationally recognised as being fair and free, although improvements are still needed.
Putting aside our subjective likes or dislikes of Mandela and the ANC, let's think about what might happen, objectively, if the hard liners succeeded in their coup against Gorbachev and continued the Cold War. I tend to assume that somehow economic reforms in the USSR were successful (a bit of a stretch, I know) but by the mid-90's the Soviet Union was back on its feet (and ready to invade China). In the mid 90's the tides had shifted in South Africa and KGB assistance or no, Apartheid was on its way out and democracy was on the way in.
After Mandela takes power, the KGB is in a bit of a difficult position. The side they backed won, but doesn't seem eager to throw off the yoke of capitalism or adopt a communist government. Mostly, they would be interested in a neutral South Africa in the war with China, and this would be achievable. By mid-Twilight (the nuclear exchange), Soviet aid and influence in Africa and South Africa has severely waned. SA would therefore be looking to protect its own interests in Africa, perhaps forming a regional defensive bloc. Trade to Europe and North America has decreased considerably. so new markets are needed, perhaps in South America, surviving Asian nations (like Thailand) and Australia (which should by all rights be an industrial power in the T2K universe). If there is trade with some Chinese factions, then surviving KGB elements could organise ad hoc disruptions of this (using labour unions, political allies, left-wing extremists, etc.).
Tony