Quote:
Originally Posted by Rainbow Six
I still think that the fall of apartheid is intrinsically linked to the fall of communism...if you're following a V1 timeline, then there is a high possibiity that an apartheid Government would still be in place...in V2 and 2.2 an ANC Government led by Nelson Mandela is the likely outcome.
In either scenario, I wuldn't be at all surprised to see the end result being a South Africa tearing itself apart in a manner similar to the Larry Bond novel "Vortex".
|
R6,
South Africa certainly could come apart for many reasons. While I understand the emotional linking of Apartheid to communism, I would like to understand what the reasoning is. This is a lot like the assertion that Pope John Paul II somehow caused the fall of communism... the two events (his becoming Pope and the end of the Cold War) may be directly linked, but it's hard to find a concrete connection or causal chain of events leading from one to the other.
I'm not looking for a debate on how Pope JPII caused or didn't cause the end of communism. I'm more wondering what the end of communism would have to do with the fall of Apartheid or the continuation of one somehow guarantees the continuing of the other. If anything, if we grant the KGB supported the ANC then in theory there should be an opposite effect. That is, if KGB support is withdrawn then the ANC should have collapsed, but it didn't.
How about for the v1 or v2/2.2 timeline Apartheid ends in South Africa, but the still-existing KGB prods the ANC into more of a revolutionary end-game. Land and businesses belonging to whites are seized, en masse, some kind of "African Socialism" is imposed. Splits appear in the ANC and their allies, perhaps Mandela declares himself "President-for-Life" or is ousted and/or assassinated for being too moderate (by hard-line
Afrikaaner militia commandos or false-flag KGB operatives) and a race war erupts. As the events spiral out of control in the rest of the world and in South Africa, a "fortress Trasnvaal-Zulu" strategy is enacted, per Nate's post.
Tony