Quote:
Originally Posted by helbent4
Web,
One counter-factual might be what would have happened if Rhodesia had adopted liberal democracy and majority rule upon independence in 1965, and had not suffered decades of political and economic isolation and warfare.
Tony
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This is my point, though. The long-term solution to Rhodesia's problem was political (and economic). When Maoist insurgents offer better solutions to your problems than the state does (as ZANU did in northeastern Rhodesia in the early 1970's), the status quo is bankrupt for the civilians in question. The Rhodesian military bought the ruling class more time, but the ruling class failed to address the key issues of concern to many of the black Africans.
In all fairness, the Rhodesians were in a tough spot. Improved medical care had reduced infant mortality such that the black population of Rhodesia exploded in the decades leading up to UDI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence in 1965). Fertility rates did not drop at nearly the same pace as infant mortality. Education, which is harder to implement than basic improvements to health care, also lagged way behind population growth. In effect, Rhodesia was forced to cope with a very rapid growth in population without a corresponding growth in the availability of land or education. Thus, very large segments of the black Rhodesian population were in a tough spot.
One of the reasons the Rhodesian government gave for dragging its feet on universal suffrage was the low literacy rate among the black Rhodesians. What was the point, they asked, of trying to create a modern democracy with people who couldn't read? The new voters would be easy prey for, well, the likes of Robert Mugabe. The course of history has given some credibility to the Rhodesian position.
The fact remains, though, that the Maoist ZANU infiltrators exploited a window the Rhodesians left open. Whether the Rhodesians, with the resources available to them in the 1960's, could have closed it sufficiently to prevent the spread of Communism among the locals is an open question.
Webstral