[Legbreaker]

I don't think V1 had anything on Latvia besides the 8th being in the area.

The shale might have been far reaching, but there was an entire Army backing it all up, plus whatever else was happening with other units a little further south. I can't imagine that the German III Army would have been the only ones on the offensive - the others may only have been a diversion to tie up the Pact forces, but they had to be actively involved in the overall European plan to some degree.

Although the US XI Corps where the only ones to make any significant ground, my guess is the rest of the German III were to follow on and reinforce. They would allow the northern Poland corridor to be held.

Once the shale was secured and extraction of oil underway, Nato forces could only increase in power as their manoeuvrability increased. The Pact may counterattack, but first they'd have to recover from the German III'ds drive.

Re the navigation mistake, by 2000 it's possible not many compasses remain. Given a few cloudy days without the sun to use as a bearing and it's possible a few small mistakes could snowball. It'd still have to be a hell of a chain of events though for the entire Division to become "geographically embarrassed".