On the Soviet side, the units available are apparently less than reliable with a number of units only held in check by the KGB units shoving them forward. In that environment, I don't see a huge need for a strong western presence to create the situation we're presented with.
The whole region though is a bit of a mess with what appears to be several different factions within the same nationality (looking predominately at the locals here). We've also got the French in the background too which can only help the western cause (because they're mostly unaffected by the greater world war). Might not have a lot of troops on the ground and in the front lines, but just the threat of them post winter 97-98 is likely to put a check on Pact offensive intentions (or at least make the commanders think twice about it).
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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