I tend to view the published T2K material as more relevant than the 2300 stuff. The 2300 material is definitely a good guide, but it's nowhere near conclusive.
The Challenge mag only dealt with one small part of the country, not the nation as a whole (or even anywhere outside the immediate adventure area from memory).
I see Japan as more able to bounce back for the reasons already presented - experience. It won't by any means be easy though given the serious lack of natural resources and outside assistance. Trade is likely to exist only by wind power initially (probably take a couple of decades to move back to powered shipping). In the meantime they'll struggle along with bamboo and mud bricks.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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