That's a very well thought out assessment of the early part of the war there and I wholeheartedly agree.
Once the hammer falls for the rest of the world, say mid 1997, exports from anywhere are likely to dry up, even though the demand will probably increase - a country on the loosing side of a conflict is going to be hard pressed to convince suppliers that it's still going to be around to pay the bills.
Once the banking and communications systems are destroyed (as EMP is sure to do in a heartbeat), even those who are apparently winning will have a hard time getting anyone to supply their needs. Payments could still be done, but it'd be a LOT harder to do and just communicating for negotiations, etc will take a lot longer. In some cases it all might just fall into the too hard basket.
Post 1997, when everything's basically gone to pot, unless a buyer shows up on the suppliers doorstep with payment in hand, it's extremely unlikely a deal will be done. With the destruction of the financial markets, you won't be seeing anyone offering credit....
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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