I've been talking with a couple of the naval officers in my office and I know that a lot of what is going on can't be talked about due to security, but this is the opinion of two naval aviators and a sub-driver....
China wants to build a blue water navy. The on-going disputes over the Spratley Islands (and yes my spell kecker ain't working this early!) as well as a desire to be in a position to apply more pressure on Taiwan seem to be their major objectives. The aviators believe that they want to build a fleet with 3-5 medium-sized carriers sometime within the next decade or two. The smaller carriers will give them a decent capability in their area of intrest while not costing as much as a US carrier. They were most intrested in the composition of the Chinese air groups since this will hint as to the carriers role; air-defense of the fleet, anti-submarine or strike.
The sub-driver wasn't too worried about it. His opinion is that PACFLT will simply keep 1-2 SSNs in the area to monitor the situation. After all, surface targets are surface targets. The melee in the lunchroom was on!
None of the people I've talked with were very concerned about a Chinese-Indian naval build-up. Both countries simply don't have the auxiliaries to support major fleet operations in each other's area. Perhaps escalations over Tibet, maybe an accident with fighters, but the chance of a naval confrontation was consider to be remote.
Like the old saying goes, amatuers study tactics, professionals study logistics. The general opinion is that when the Chinese start building auxiliaries then they will become more of a threat.
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The reason that the American Army does so well in wartime, is that war is chaos, and the American Army practices chaos on a daily basis.
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