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As the Allies approached Japan, the decision to invade was hotly debated. Of deep concern was how the civilian population would act as the Allies drove inland from the invasion beaches. On two previous occasions, the Americans had meet Japanese civilians.

On Saipan two thirds of the civilian population were killed, a large minority of them had committed suicide rather than be captured. The garrison of 30,000 troops had inflicted 14,000 casualties on the Americans.

On Okinawa, 107,000 Japanese soldiers and at least 75,000 civilians were killed. The Japanese inflicted 60,000 combat and 40,000 noncombat casualties on the US.

The military estimates for Operation Olympic included 125,000 casualties (including 31,000 dead). Operation Coronet was twice as large as Olympic and casualties were expected to be twice as many. The total estimate for the Downfall operations would be about 370,000 (including 80,000 dead) Allied losses.

So just were did the "million US dead" come from?

For the most part, this statement appears in the memoirs of various politicans who were trying to make the case for the use of the atom bomb. This mythical million dead began as an exaggeration of the 370,000 casualties figure (often given as "between 250,000 to 500,000" in military briefing documents from the period). Half a million quickly became a million and casualties became deaths. Newspapers quickly picked up on the million dead because it made better copy. While the million American dead is a sheer myth, the military estimates of 80,000 killed and 290,000 wounded were very realistic, based as they were on recent experience. Any invasion of Japan would have increased the American deaths in World War II by 27%. Avoiding this invasion by any means possible was no laughing matter.

So what other options were available? By the spring of 1945, the naval blockade of Japan was growing tighter. Food was tightly rationed with the average civilian getting 75% of the minimum caloric intake. The winter of 1945-46 would have seen starvation, but keep in mind, that Japan was minimally self-sufficient in food production. While many would starve, most could survive indefinitely. Food shortages would hurt, but it would not lead the the social disintegration necessary to overthrow the military government. Starvation would not guarantee a Japanese surrender and the Allies could not, for political reasons (the voters wanted the war over, now) keep a million soldiers and sailors under arms for a year or more enforcing the blockade.

The problem that faced the Allies was how to get Japan to surrender as soon as possible. The Japanese, in mid-1945, were offering to surrender much as the Germans had done in World War One. In that case the German Army remained relative intact, this was what the Japanese wanted. The Allies were well aware that leaving the German Army intact after WWI had played a key part in its reemergence in WWII.

By August, 1945 the negotiations had come down to the point to whether or not the Japanese Emperor would be allowed to remain on the throne. The Allies were willing to conceed the point as it was viewed that the emperor and his authority would be needed to keep the population under control during the occupation of Japan. Unfortunately, the Japanese made the error of sending their messages through their ambassador in Moscow. And the Soviets had their own agenda. On August 8,1945, the Soviets invaded Manchuria and swept away the Japanese garrison. It was to maintain their position in China that Japan had gone to war in the first place and now, China was lost to them. American bombers had already burned out most of Japan's cities and then, on August 6th and 9th, came the atomic bombs. On August 15th, the emperor issued the order to surrender.

Since then, many have argued the need to drop the atomic bombs. This is all hindsight. AT THE TIME, nothing seemed likely to dissuade the Japanese from making a suicidal last stand in their home islands. The Japanese military had already demonstrated their willingness to fight to the last. Saipan and Okinawa merely confirmed that Japanese civilians were every bit as determined as their militar. Japan had never surrendered.

A naval and air blockade was the only other alternative to any invasion and no one was sure how long this would have to be maintained in order to bring the Japanese to terms. Most estimates had a blockade bringing a surrender sometime in 1946-47, but the Japanese could drag this process out for several years. The Allies could not support this for political reasons, war weariness had set in, the heavy casualties suffered so far had many wanting the troops home. The people wanted peace. Japan had to be defeated as soon as possible and by whatever means possible.

The atomic bombs were not decisive weapon. The US only had three bombs, one of which was expended as a test. It was estimated that it would be at least another three months before the US had enough material for another atomic bomb. What the atomic bomb had going for it was shock. One bomb dropped by a single plane, doing the damage that 600 bombers did in one night. The Japanese didn't know how many more atomic bombs the Americans had, and the US left it to their imaginations how many it might have and how quickly it would use them against the Japanese. But against a people who seemed to disdain death, there was doubt that even the atomic bomb would bring the Japanese to surrender.

Japan required an unprecedented series of calamities before surrender became possible. Destruction of her fleet, the isolation of nearly 400,000 soldier in Pacific island garrisions, most of her cities reduced to ash and rubble, blockade of her ports, the loss of most of her intact armies (in Manchuria) and finally, the use of the atomic bombs. No one, at the time, know how much it would take to force the Japanese to surrender.

But the atomic bombings finally convinced the Japanese that the Allies were willing to destroy them as a people. On August 15,1945, the Emperor of Japan did one of those things that Japanese emperors rarely did. He overrode all opposing counsel and broadcast the order to surrender. With no assurances that the Allies would respect the imperial institutions of Japan, the Emperor threw himself, and his people, upon the uncertain mercies of the same peoples Japan had savagely fought for the past four years.