I do believe I mentioned something regarding the Chicoms needing to achieve air supremacy before the US got assets into the AO. The invaders do have a window in which to do what they need to do. It's not a big window, either. They have however long it takes for F/A-18s to get to Taiwan from Japan at cruise speed.
Can the Chinese do it? Depends on how quickly they can suppress Taiwan's AD. Which in turn depends on a lot of technology, on both sides, that has not (yet) been tested in combat.
Automatically assuming that the Chicoms will fail any such attempt is just the sort of arrogance that has caused the US much grief many times in the past.
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If you find yourself in a fair fight you didn't plan your mission properly!
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't.
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