The rise of China is probably the most significant event of the 21st Century.
The figures and statistics coming out of China are staggering. Its economy is the second largest in the world by any measure, and is growing fast enough that it may overtake America within a decade. It is already the worlds largest exporter, it overtook America as the worlds largest manufacturer in 2010, and the industrial statistics are mind bogling.
It produces more steel than the rest of the world combined, it is the worlds largest ship builder, it produces more vehicles than North America, Japan and the whole of Europe, and it overtook America as the largest car market in the world. The combined value and trading of Chinese stock markets are already the biggest in the world outside of the massive stock trading of New York City. Chinese seaports dominate the annual listings of the worlds busiest ports, and the size of its air cargo and passenger transport statistics is growing so rapidly that it is beginning to rival America's. Only America produces and consumes more electricity, and only America consumes more oil, and China may even overtake America in electricity and oil consumption by the end of the decade.
Remarkably this has been achieved in a communist country where you can only vote for one political party, were human rights, work practices and laws and ideals that we take for granted are absent, and were people are only allowed to have one child throughout most of the country.
Why has this happened? I would say because the rest of the world, the Western and developed world in particular, has turned a blind eye to what China does in its own country, and Western and Japanese companies have heavily invested in the Chinese economy to produce manufactured good for export to the developed world, attracted by the low cost of Chinese labour and almost non-existant work practices and labour laws, and the articially low value of the Chinese Yuan. All of this has allowed China and the Chinese elites to build up massive cash reserves and buy some of the debt of other countries to stimulate the development of China's economy and preserve the status quo.
Will anyone try and encourage democracy in China and help the lot of the Chinese people. Probably not because it will encourage the Chinese people to want more rights, which in turn will lead to higher pay, better work practices, new laws, the exposure of corruption and more openess and accountability which the Chinese government would be hostile too. Ultimately it could lead a similar situation to the Soviet Union in the early 1990's. Large parts of China are hostile to Peking and even the dominant Han Chinese ethnic group, Tibet and the Uyghur's are already in open rebellion against Chinese domination. All this would be bad for business as it wouldn't be cheap to build things in China anymore, and all the new shiny factories would have to close and move somehere else, which would leave China royally screwed.
So for the forseable future we will see the continual emergence of China. Maybe not as rapidly as the we have seen in the last decade and this growth is not sustainable for ever. However China will turn to its military and science to increase its international power and prestige. Technologicaly and logistically it can't match America, but its power will steadily grow and its main aim will be to challenge American hegemony in the Pacific and become powerful enough to deter American forces.
For the Asia-Pacific region it could be a traumatic experience. They will all be happy to make as much money as they can from the emergent Chinese super-power. The Russians will be happy to make as much money as they can from China, selling them raw materials, arms, military and space technology, and will be happy to align themselves with China as long as they don't increase their nuclear capability to much. However the Japanese, South Koreans and Taiwanese among others will move closer into America's defence umbrella, as China will become to powerful for them to confront on their own. India may also allign itself closer with America as it will be China's largest rival in Asia, and Australia might find itself in an akward position due to its huge commodity exports to China and its close relations with America.
What will this mean for America. It might loose its number one position as the worlds largest economy to China in the not so distant future. But America will remain a richer country, as its far better developed than and its wealth is far more evenly distributed. Its economy is also inherently more stable and also more infuental, and is far less dependant on the outside world. Europe, Japan and the developed world will remain its main competitors in high-tech industries, although others including China will increasingly emerge. America will remain the preminant military power. Its logistical capabilities and global supply and intel network is far superior to any other country, and its military-industrial complex and level of technology may be to great for anyone else to ever fully match.
However I could be wrong. The rise in value of the Yuan, inflation, changing market forces, unpopularity of China's government in the developed world forcing multinationals to relocate their factories, the growth of democracy, a Far Eastern Arms race and an invasion of Taiwan could rapidly throw a spanner into China.
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