Quote:
Originally Posted by Targan
It would put my country in a truly awful position too - we'd have to choose between losing our economic prosperity (China's demand for raw materials is the only thing sparing Australia from the global economic downturn that's affecting every other western economy) or turning our backs on the strongest and closest military ally we've ever had.
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For better or for worse, if our imagined PRC invasion of Taiwan occurs within the next five years, Australia will find herself obliged to side with the US. Once the economic blockade descends on China, the Chinese demand for raw materials will dry up very quickly. Once the USN puts its blackade of China's ports in place, Australia's raw materials will have trouble moving into the country anyway. Even if some enterprising types arrange to have goods for China offloaded in Southeast Asia or Vladivostok, B-2s dropping precision-guided munitions will keep China's rail links with the outside world from functioning as intended. Sorry, my friend. If it comes to a shooting war between the US and the PRC in the near future, there is no money to be made siding with China. We'll talk again in ten years and see where things stand, though.
The good news is that Beijing seems to understand this fact. The analogy comparing modern China to rising Britain is an interesting one. Why take by conquest what you can buy and have other governments' troops safeguard for you? It seems to me that China is doing a very good job of keeping her saber-rattling much quieter than her wallet-based transactions.
Webstral