A manned Mars mission or even a Moon shot is unviable at the moment due to the economic problems effecting most of the world. Currently only Russia could send anyone to the Moon and it couldn't even think of affording it, while China has the money and ambition but not the technology.
America with an injection of funding has the technology to develop both Lunar and Mars capable launchers and spacecraft, but the US civilan space programe has been so badly managed that no US administration is going to fund it.
I think a Mars mission is probably a generation away and we are looking at mid 21st century at the very least. By that time its likely that the political and technological field will have changed. I can still see America as one of the leaders, but China may be the main competitor as others fall off or realign themselves. A Joint mission may be on the cards, we might even see two missions with America and China each leading a rival consortium of nations.
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