I think you've made some strong arguements for France firing off a few missiles against "neutral" targets like Mexico. I can see France doing the same thing to other countries as well to advance their own post war position.
By late 1998, perhaps even early that same year, nobody is going to be able to work out where a nuke came from, let alone do anything significant about it. France can simply dust of it's halo and move on, confident they've strenghtened their international position and dished out a little payback without seriously dirtying their hands.
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If it moves, shoot it, if not push it, if it still doesn't move, use explosives.
Nothing happens in isolation - it's called "the butterfly effect"
Mors ante pudorem
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