[Mohoender]

In January, the Gulf Coalition begins a stunning aerial offensive against Iraq and follows it up with a blitzkrieg ground war in February which liberates Kuwait and crushes the flower of the Iraqi Army. Although Saddam remains in power, his authority is reduced to the central third of his nation and his military is no longer capable of aggression against neighboring states. With the slow return of prosperity but still in need to strengthen Soviet rule, Lukyanov refuses to order a military intervention to stop the Republic’s drive toward independence. On the Baltic Sea, Soviet forces remain at the borders while Estonia and Latvia join with Lithuania voting for independence in August. There move had been preceded by that of Georgia which declared it as early as April while ethnic and religious violence in the Caucasus escalates. Continuing tensions become particularly heavy between Armenians and Azeris in the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Meanwhile, on July 1, the old Warsaw Pact is formally abolished, the last straw for many Moscow hardliners who are now planning to seize power in a move that should take place on August 19.

However, Lukyanov has been informed of the conspiracy and, on August 17, orders KGB General Viktor Karpukhin to conduct several arrests, foiling the coup. Then, three days later, on August 20, the New Union Treaty is signed between the Russian SFSR and 7 Republics (Byelorussian SSR, Kazakh SSR, Azerbaijan SSR, Uzbek SSR, Kyrgyz SSR, Turkmen SSR, and Tajik SSR). It grants more power to the republics and changes the country’s name into “Union of Soviet Sovereign States” while Anatoly Lukyanov pursues his rise to power. On August 22, he is elected chairman of the Supreme Soviet of USSR in place of Ligachev and his first decision is to establish a new government and to appoint Gennady Zyuganov to head the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. A new government is established with Ivan Silayev as Prime Minister: Viktor Karpukhin (KGB), Alexander Rutskoy (Internal Affairs), Ruslan Khasbulatov (Foreign Affairs), General Alexander Lebed (Defense), Konstantin Kobets (Communications), Alexander Tizyakov (Finance), Vladimir Ivashko (Justice) and Vasily Starodubtsev (Agriculture and Food). Despite this obvious success, the governments of Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and the Baltic States (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia) still refuse to join.

Their choice is a serious blow that convinces Lukyanov of the urgent need to pursue a deep structure reorganization. More space launch are performed, allowing for the GLONASS system to become fully operational. More army units are reduced into armament storage bases while their personnels are progressively sent to civilian jobs. However, new equipments continue to be fielded while military programs are confirmed. The KGB undergoes a serious reform intended at making it a more versatile tool. The START I treaty is signed on July 1, pursuing the move toward further detente with the West. On the next day, G.W. Bush and Anatoly Lukyanov make a common speech in which they announce that both countries intend to pursue more talks on arms reduction. They conclude by stating that the Cold War is now over. On that same day, army units are mobilized all over the Soviet Union to take over the transportation of much needed supplies to the cities (food shortages effectively end by late December).

This, however, is not its only action on the international scene and a few more steps are taken toward a Sino-Soviet reconciliation. In May, the Sino-Russian Border Agreement is signed at Beijing, definitely ending border disputes between the two countries. In addition, a limited but real collaboration is established in which USSR ensure China of its support in the development of certain technologies while the PRC agrees to increase exports of consumption goods.

As these changes are taking place in USSR, the dissolution of Yugoslavia accelerates when both Croatia and Slovenia secede in June, followed in short order by Macedonia. Except in that last province, violence soon brakes out between the Serbian dominated federal government and militias of the breakaway states. After the Ten-day War, peace is restored in Slovenia while fightings continue over Croatia. By the end of 1991, most of Croatia is gravely affected by war and it is facing increasing difficulties when it appears that Moscow doesn’t respect the UN embargo and sends large amounts of military supplies through Beograd.

In the West, relief had been expressed when the Warsaw Pact dissolved and when the Cold War was declared over. However, concerns are again expressed when further proofs of the Soviet implication in Yugoslavia are released. Still some countries already reduced military spending as early as 1988 and the movement toward peace continues. More military units are disolved and older equipments are effectively taken out of service. Weapon development is slowing down and equipements that could have gone into production are now cancelled or delayed.