[Mohoender]

In his inaugural address, President Tanner declares ""When the Berlin Wall finally fell, we all hopped for a better world. This as not come true and the Soviet Hydra is stronger than ever. Once more our democracy must stand." On February 6, the noted victory of Ariel Sharon, leader of the Likud Party, in Israel and the continuing Al Aqsa Intifada had put a difinitve end to an eventual peace process. In UK, Tony Blair’s Labour Party wins the elections on June 7 and Pervez Musharraf becomes President of Pakistan two weeks later. Meanwhile, on April 1, a Chinese J-8II fighter jet bumps into a USAF EP-3E surveillance aircraft (The pilot, Wang Wei, goes missing and is presumed dead) which is forced to make an emergency landing in Hainan, China. President Tanner is particularly offensive and declares China to be fully responsible for the incident. Beijing immediately answers and declares that the crew will remain under Chinese custody and will have to answer the charges of murder and spying. As it occurs, the aircraft is dissassembled and it is obvious that it will not be returned. As a result, on June 20, the White House speaker declares that “being considered a rising power will not prevent China from responding of its acts” and, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the level of allert among NATO is raised. On June 22, foreign investments cease and the West declares an embargo toward Beijing.

A week later, Moscow and the entire Shanghai Pact declare their own embargo toward the West generating a major crisis. Some goods quickly become unavailable to the West and the Dow Jones plunge by more than 15% on July 10. By the end of July, it has lost more than 22% reaching a level close to that of 1998. Meanwhile, all Shanghai Pact members suspend the use of dollars, large businesses and banks go banckrupt as unemployment rise by more than 10% in Europe and in the USA. The western economy had already sustained a major contraction when, on August 17, a wave of anti-Soviet demonstrations in Crimea is violently suppressed. Small groups appear to be equipped with military small arms and Moscow claims that the Ukrainian Army is behind those it calls terrorist. Kiev denies any involvement with rioters but several military units move closer to the border to step up security and this is followed by border incidents involving units of the Ukrainian and Soviet armies. At last, elements of the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command cross the frontier into Crimea in retaliation for what they described as a "full-scale attack". Within two days Ukraine and USSR are at war. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and the Soviet Army progresses steadily, taking Dniepropetorvsk in early September. In mid-September, their forces crack the line of Ukrainian reservists holding the western flank and cut south into Ukraine, leaving Lvov to the side in a rush toward Odessa. Heady with victory, the Politburo reveals its intention to reintegrate Ukraine within USSR. Claiming that their initial actions were justified by provocations from the Soviet Union and that they now face dismemberment as a state, Ukraine turns to its NATO partners for assistance. While the political leadership of most European members of NATO still debates the risk of escalation, Bundeswehr, Polish and US Army units start to move East as Romanian troops enter Ukraine on September 28.

On the following day, Denmark, Luxemburg, Hungary and Padania demand that all NATO units withdraw to their start line and (when these demands have no effect) withdraw from NATO in protest. British, Canadian and Dutch forces join, however, while troops from the other members remain in place, still partners in NATO but not yet fully party to war. On October 1, North Korea is accepted to the Shanghai Pact while, on the same day, all Asian Partners declare that they will remain neutral. Things are much more different in Europe and as NATO troops enter Belarus, the Czech Republic, entirely isolated, opposes a tough resistance on its borders. In the Balkans, Bulgarian and Serbian troops attack in Romania and initially find little resistance. However, on October 2, when Bosnia and Croatia declare war to the Pact. Serbian units have to be diverted from the offensive in Romania and the remaining troops suspend movements. Meanwhile, Albania and Macedonia declare neutrality cutting the north road to Greek Army Corps.

Over the next weeks fighting continue to build up elsewhere in Europe but the result remain undecisive until early November when the Shanghai Pact, attacking in the far north, make a bid for quick victory in Northern Norway. As a result, NATO members that had remained outside of the conflict enter the war and the Arctic equipped divisions spearheading the russian attack are unable to break through to paratroopers and marines landed in NATO's rear areas. As crack French foreign legion, British commandoes and U.S. Marines join the battle, several elite Soviet paratroopers and marines are isolated and destroyed. At sea, the Soviet Red Banner Northern Fleet sorties and attempts to break through the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom Gap into the north Atlantic. For three weeks the opposing fleets hammer each other and the Soviet fleets performs well to military specialist amazement. USSR supports its fleet with many bombers that prove capable of swarming two U.S. aircraft carriers with a large number of missiles. One of the carrier sinks after burning for hours while the other withdraws with important wounds. In addition, Soviet submarines are responsible for the loss of several NATO vessels including “HMS Illustrious” and “Clemenceau”. At last, receiving reinforcements, the western fleets come out on top, bloodied but victorious. Sixty percent of the Russian Northern Fleets tonnage engaged rests on the bottom of the Norwegian and North seas but several major units including “Kuznetsov”, “Pyotr Veliky” and a number of cruisers rally Murmansk. They represent a serious threat to NATO control over the Atlantic. Moreover, most SSBN, including all Typhoons and Borei, as well as scattered SSN and commerce raiders break out. By year's end, these SSN and raiders are wreaking havoc on NATO convoys.

On the very day that sees the neutralization of the Soviet North Atlantic invasion force, an attack is conducted on the Polish harbor of Gdansk by the elite Spetnaz team "Vympel Group". The 280 men strong "Vympel Group", specialized in base infiltration and sabotage, is brought on target by three Orlyonoks. While two missile carrying Ekranoplans of the "Lun-class" launch a hit and fade missile attack on the harbor, the Spetnaz team slips trough the base defenses and set up numerous destruction charges. When everything is over "Vympel Group" has lost only 11 men while the Polish Navy counts more than 500 casualties, 4 ships captured, 14 surface ships sunk and a submarine destroyed (with several more damaged) along with valuable harbor installations. After this action, the Polish flleet is unable to commit more than a few ships to the fight taking place in the Baltic Sea and this represents a major blow to NATO and, the Danish forbidding military ships to sail through Jutland, the German Fleet is virtually alone to face the Soviet Baltic Fleet. As a result, it avoids direct engagements and conducts a series of small actions that continue to the next year and attempt to gain superiority by attrition.

The situation has also evolved in the Mediterranean and, consequently in the Balkans. Greece has finally entered the war and its navy combined with these of Portugal and Spain are now patrolling the Mediterranean, quickly cleaning the Adriatic of Serbian ships. However, no naval confrontation comes with the Pact navies as Turkey has now closed the Bosphorus to all ships belonging to a beligerant country. On land, the Greek Army violates Macedonian neutrality and takes over the country. Soon, its forces are fighting in both Southern Bulgaria and Serbia where the pressure builds up on these two Pact members. Before year’s end, it was expected that both would fall but the situation reverts again when Soviet troops enter the line on December 20. Ankara’s decision had favored the Soviets who quickly achieve the destruction of Romanian and Ukrainian naval forces. In early mid-December the sealane of the Black Sea are fully under Pact control which can safely ship troops and reinforcements to the Balkan Front.

Obviously, a major conflict has started and the quick changes in the global situation already have consequences at all levels and everywhere. World trade had already contracted before the war but that increases as fighting spreads and while there are no specific restrictions yet on the civilian markets, the Dow Jones keeps going down. By years end, it has dropped by 52% and is at 5518 points which was roughly its level of 1996. Already, various quotations had been suspended especially in the financial sector and an economical crisis is on the verge to shake what is left of international trade. Nevertheless, military productions increase in both countries party to the war and neutral nations and it generates new trades that slow the downfall.

In Africa, UN Peacekeeping missions end (UNMEE between Eritrea and Ethiopia, UNAMSIL in Sierra Leone, MONUC in DRC and MINURSO in Western Sahara) and fighting slowly start over again in all these regions. Moreover, other conflicts that had continued to exist are now slowly but surely gaining in intensity: Algerian Civil War, Angolan Civil War, Burundi Civil War (which spreads to DRC and Rwanda), Chadian Civil War, Second Liberian Civil War, Casamance Conflict, Somalian Civil War, Second Sudanese Civil War and Ugandan Rebellions opposing the government to various rebellious movements (Allied Democratic Forces, Lord’s Resistance Army and Uganda National Rescue Front). Moreover, local neglect and the suspension of the UNAIDS (Joint UN program on HIV/AIDS) favor a slow acceleration of the sickness progression. Neverhteless, despite all this, this year is among the most favorable to Africa as the new conflict result in much wealth getting to the continent in exchange for raw materials.

Similar benefits go to Latin America but as this wealth reaches the region, more of it gets to the various insurgencies and cartels that have been spreading over the past five years. Instability increases especially quickly in the Andes (Bolivia and Peru) and Colombia where it almost reaches the level of a full scale war. Governmental forces have had more difficulties to get military supplies and this new situation favors the insurgents except in Chile where the army achieves full victory over the local rebellious movement. Then, despite a slight increase in the insurgent activities of Central America and Mexico, these regions continue to be considered stable.

Then, more than Africa and Latin America, Asia gets its share of the growing war oriented trade but as this seems to lead to a rapid regional development, everything changes on December 13. Five heavily armed men enter the Indian Parliament and kill seven people before being killed themselves. Leaders in India's immediate neighbourhood condemn the attack on the Parliament, including Pakistan but, on December 14, in an indirect reference to Pakistan, Home Minister LK Advani claims, "we have received some clues about yesterday's incident, which shows that a neighbouring country, and some terrorist organisations active there behind it". The same day, India demands that Pakistan stops the activities of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), that Pakistan apprehend the organisation's leaders and that Pakistan curbs the financial assets and the group's access to these assets. In response, Pakistani forces are put on high alert and Pakistan military spokesman Major-General Rashid Qureshi claims that the attack is a "drama staged by Indian intelligence agencies to defame the freedom struggle in 'occupied Kashmir'" and further warns that India would pay "heavily if they engage in any misadventure". On December 20, India deploys its troops to Kashmir and the Indian part of the Punjab in what is India's largest military mobilization since the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War.